Would VP Pawlenty delivery Iowa and Wisconsin?

[milhouse24]

There are some signs and rumors that once again point to Pawlenty.  Even though I think Pawlenty has no strengths, looks weakish, has no national presence, limited government experience, has few voter constituencies, and no one outside or inside his home state takes him seriously as a national candidate. 

It seems that Mitt is counting on winning Ohio and Virginia.  Therefore he will need to close out either Wisconsin or Iowa. 

So, Pawlenty may be able to maximize his charisma to GOTV for Romney in Iowa and Wisconsin.   

I would have picked Thune, but Thune comes with some baggage that Romney may not prefer to deal with. 

If Pawlenty is picked, will he deliver Iowa/Wisconsin and the presidency for Romney? 

[© tweed]

yes

[RogueBeaver]

No. Ryan can boost Romney into a WI tie per PPP but Romney would only win it if he won 297-241 or thereabouts. Iowa is starting to tighten up on its own. Pawlenty couldn't even crack 50 on his own in MN, he's not going to help anywhere or with anything.

[RogueBeaver]

As for Pawlenty being picked, everything else aside I highly doubt Romney would telegraph his pick 2 months in advance. Pawlentymania started a month ago and it'll be 2.5 weeks minimum before Romney announces his pick.

[Lincoln Republican]

No.

For the reasons OP has discussed.

Pawlenty is a very nice man, I am sure, but reminds me somewhat of Quayle pertaining to political stature.

No.  Pawlenty will definitely not deliver Iowa And Wisconsin to Romney.

I believe Portman has much more gravitas than does Pawlenty.

I would be very surprised, and disappointed, if Romney, somehow, picks Pawlenty.

I do not believe he will. 

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

No, and it's crazy to think so. If Romney wants Wisconsin, he'd better pick Ryan. But it might hurt in Florida and Nevada with retirees. I think Iowa will narrowly go for Romney anyway.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

He would deliver Minnesota by 3 points. WI and IA are very interesting at that point. With all things being equal I think we'd lose but by small margins but with Pawlenty on the ticket they move into the toss up column at best.

[RogueBeaver]

[Citation needed]

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

[Citation needed]

me?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

lolno

Also, speaking as a Democrat, I would love for the VP pick to be Paul Ryan. It'll go over well in Florida.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

lolno

Also, speaking as a Democrat, I would love for the VP pick to be Paul Ryan. It'll go over well in Florida.

I don't think it will be Ryan. What do you mean by go over well in Florida?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Sarcasm; seniors aren't going to like his Medicare policies.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

He would deliver Minnesota by 3 points.

You must be extremely high if you think having Pawlenty on the ticket will give you a 3 point win in Minnesota. Pawlenty at best will make the race there 54-46 Obama. It has the longest Democratic streak of any state in the country. It is the only one to never vote for Reagan.

WI and IA are very interesting at that point. With all things being equal I think we'd lose but by small margins but with Pawlenty on the ticket they move into the toss up column at best.

Again, VP picks have really don't have much affects on a ticket, a 1 point increase would be the best bump Romney will get in Wisconsin. But it's very doubtful that Wisconsin will go Rep. this cycle. It's fool's gold.

[Indy Texas]

People grossly overestimate a running mate's ability to "deliver" states. Historically, running mates have an infinite ability to hurt a candidate (see: Tom Eagleton, Sarah Palin, James Stockdale) and virtually no ability to help them.

The only half-decent example people ever use is how Lyndon Johnson "won Texas for Kennedy." The results in Texas were so close that it was basically a matter of chance more than anything else (that and the ability of county Democratic Party chairmen to stuff ballot boxes; funny how Republicans scream bloody murder about voter fraud now that it rarely happens but said nothing when it was so blatant).

The vice presidential candidate's only job is to be able to look like someone who could plausibly be president in the event POTUS dies. Tim Pawlenty doesn't pass that test. And his presence on the ticket isn't going to make a damned bit of difference in states that happen to border his own.

[mondale84]

Tim Pawlenty would be the most uninspiring VP choice in US history...no, no, a thousand times no.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

He would deliver Minnesota by 3 points.

You must be extremely high if you think having Pawlenty on the ticket will give you a 3 point win in Minnesota. Pawlenty at best will make the race there 54-46 Obama. It has the longest Democratic streak of any state in the country. It is the only one to never vote for Reagan.

WI and IA are very interesting at that point. With all things being equal I think we'd lose but by small margins but with Pawlenty on the ticket they move into the toss up column at best.

Again, VP picks have really don't have much affects on a ticket, a 1 point increase would be the best bump Romney will get in Wisconsin. But it's very doubtful that Wisconsin will go Rep. this cycle. It's fool's gold.

Yes and it's been a leaning Democratic state since 2000. Bush was close twice. It's not Rhode Island or Vermont. Reagan would've won Minnesota if he campaigned there too. They voted for Pawlenty twice as well. I know that was at the governor level but have you looked at the results from the last election? It was 54-44. You're saying 54-46 at best when a two term governor is on the ticket. Also, Minnesota trended to the right last time. In 2004 it was 7 points left of center but only 3 points left of center in 2008. I'm not saying it will continue exactly but I'm saying Pawlenty will make it closer than last time and 2004. I'm predicting 53-46 there for Obama right now but there's 3 months of conventions, debates, and gaffes to look forward to. I think you're putting Minnesota in too far left of a category. It belongs with NM, NH, PA, MI, IA, and WI.

[Maxwell]

Pawlenty will bring nothing but cringe-worthy remarks and a record of failure.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

Pawlenty will bring nothing but cringe-worthy remarks and a record of failure.

What about him didn't you like? I've never felt strongly in favor of or against Pawlenty. I'm just asking. There are better running mates out there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The only people here who still care about Pawlenty in any way are the people that really hate him, and I fail to see why people in Iowa and Wisconsin would care about him at all. "Oh man Romney picked a really boring and uninspiring guy from a state that borders mine, he has my vote for sure!"

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

The only people here who still care about Pawlenty in any way are the people that really hate him, and I fail to see why people in Iowa and Wisconsin would care about him at all. "Oh man Romney picked a really boring and uninspiring guy from a state that borders mine, he has my vote for sure!"

which is why Rubio, McDonnell, and Christie would be better

[Maxwell]

Pawlenty will bring nothing but cringe-worthy remarks and a record of failure.

What about him didn't you like? I've never felt strongly in favor of or against Pawlenty. I'm just asking. There are better running mates out there.

The only thing he accomplished in Minnesota was momentous amounts of debt and Cap and Trade, then he ran for president under the banner of arresting Abortion doctors and petty attacks to MICHELLE BACHMANN... THAT DIDN'T WORK.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

Pawlenty will bring nothing but cringe-worthy remarks and a record of failure.

What about him didn't you like? I've never felt strongly in favor of or against Pawlenty. I'm just asking. There are better running mates out there.

The only thing he accomplished in Minnesota was momentous amounts of debt and Cap and Trade, then he ran for president under the banner of arresting Abortion doctors and petty attacks to MICHELLE BACHMANN... THAT DIDN'T WORK.

Alright I'll agree to that mostly. I'm in favor of cap and trade though. Are you voting for Romney?

[Maxwell]

Pawlenty will bring nothing but cringe-worthy remarks and a record of failure.

What about him didn't you like? I've never felt strongly in favor of or against Pawlenty. I'm just asking. There are better running mates out there.

The only thing he accomplished in Minnesota was momentous amounts of debt and Cap and Trade, then he ran for president under the banner of arresting Abortion doctors and petty attacks to MICHELLE BACHMANN... THAT DIDN'T WORK.

Alright I'll agree to that mostly. I'm in favor of cap and trade though. Are you voting for Romney?

I'd consider if Ron Paul, Rand Paul, or even Chris Christie were the VP. Otherwise, not even considering it.

[milhouse24]

I do think T-Paw's one and only strength is that he can get the support of Midwestern evangelicals in Iowa.  Romney still has an evangelical GOTV problem and besides Santorum and Newt, there aren't many realistic options out there for VP. 

[NVGonzalez]

Nope.