2012 Early Predictions

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

I'm going to list the 4 regions of our nation and give my early predictions for each state and then do a separate category for battleground states. Let's take these predictions with a grain of salt since the election is more than 3 months away, but I think it will be fun for us to predict nonetheless.

Northeast:

Maine 57-42 Obama
Vermont 69-30 Obama
Massachusetts 60-39 Obama to 54-45 Obama depending on how well Romney and Brown do
Rhode Island 62-37 Obama
Connecticut 57-42 Obama
New York 61-38 Obama
New Jersey 56-44 to 52-48 Obama if Christie is the VP
Delaware 63-37 Obama
Maryland 61-39 Obama
D.C. 92-8 Obama

South:

West Virginia 65-35 Romney
Kentucky 60-40 Romney
Tennessee 66-34 Romney
Arkansas 74-26 Romney
Oklahoma 75-25 Romney
Texas 58-42 Romney
Louisiana 68-31 Romney
Mississippi 59-41 Romney
Alabama 62-37 Romney
Georgia 55-45 Romney
South Carolina 57-42 Romney

Midwest:

Illinois 61-39 Obama
North Dakota 58-41 Romney
South Dakota 57-42 Romney
Nebraska 62-38 Romney
Kansas 59-40 Romney

West:

Wyoming 70-29 Romney
Utah 73-27 Romney
Idaho 65-34 Romney
Washington 54-45 Obama
Oregon 56-43 Obama
California 58-42 Obama
Arizona 56-44 Romney
Hawaii 64-36 Obama
Alaska 62-38 Romney

Battlegrounds:

Montana 54-44 Romney
Colorado 51-49 Obama
New Mexico 54-46 Obama
Nevada 52-47 Obama
Missouri 55-45 Romney
Iowa 52-48 Obama
Minnesota 53-46 Obama or 51-48 Romney if Pawlenty is VP
Wisconsin 54-46 Obama
Michigan 52-47 Obama
Indiana 55-45 Romney
Virginia 50-49 to 53-47 Romney if McDonnell is VP
North Carolina 52-47 Romney
Florida 53-47 Romney to 55-44 if Rubio is VP
Pennsylvania 51-49 Obama
New Hampshire 51-48 Romney
Ohio- too close to call

[Maxwell]

a couple of things: I don't think Utah will be a bigger margin than Arkansas, much less Oklahoma, and I think Pawlenty has absolutely zero effect on Minnesota, particularly because, as governor, he had zero effect on Minnesota.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

http://

In other words this is about all I can predict with the polling for battleground states. However, based on trends and what's happened in the last 3 and a half years it's much easier to predict non-battleground states.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

a couple of things: I don't think Utah will be a bigger margin than Arkansas, much less Oklahoma, and I think Pawlenty has absolutely zero effect on Minnesota, particularly because, as governor, he had zero effect on Minnesota.

Fair point. Mormons in Utah have already been voting Republican so it may not have much of an effect there. As for Minnesota, that's very possible but I don't think Pawlenty will be the VP.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

My prediction is a 51.7 win over the Romney ticket by Obama.
Ohio is really or as close as it should be, Romney hasn't lead in a poll in a LONG time so I don't think it's too close to call, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia will be the closest states.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

My prediction is a 51.7 win over the Romney ticket by Obama.
Ohio is really or as close as it should be, Romney hasn't lead in a poll in a LONG time so I don't think it's too close to call, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia will be the closest states.

As for Ohio, yes that's the case if the election were held tomorrow but based on the next 3 months when people start paying attention, more advertisements are on, and the debates take place, alot can change. I can't predict a popular vote right now other than 51-49 one way or the other depending on turnout because it's still July. Your map looks about the same as mine.

[Vosem]

A close Obama victory (less than 290 EVs), Republicans take the Senate 51-49, Democrats have a single-digit gain in the House but Boehner remains Speaker. Europe+drought results in a second recession in 2013. Republicans have another wave in 2014, though it's less powerful than the 2010 wave simply by virtue of the fact that they already control Congress and most of the Governorships and have little to gain. (Except in the Senate; as I've pointed out to Miles, Republicans could, under the right conditions, take a filibuster-proof majority in 2014). After that it's too early to say, though I think by 2016 the recovery may be firmly enough underway that if Democrats have a really good candidate (H. Clinton) or Republicans a really bad candidate (Santorum) Democrats should be clearly favored.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I don't see Obama losing that much ground in the South; he was whittled down to his base in 2008 in the states that swung R. Unless Obama orders the nuking of Little Rock, I can't see Arkansas going 3:1 for Romney. Remember, black turnout plus the fact that Arkansas whites are more Democratic gives Democrats a solid base of 35% at absolute McGovern level. If Arkansas is >70% Romney (and I don't see why there would be a 20 point swing), New York is probably in his column too.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

I don't see Obama losing that much ground in the South; he was whittled down to his base in 2008 in the states that swung R. Unless Obama orders the nuking of Little Rock, I can't see Arkansas going 3:1 for Romney. Remember, black turnout plus the fact that Arkansas whites are more Democratic gives Democrats a solid base of 35% at absolute McGovern level. If Arkansas is >70% Romney (and I don't see why there would be a 20 point swing), New York is probably in his column too.

Those states have been trending to the right such as AR, LA, TN, KY, and WV. Obama only got 39% in 2008 there and it's bound to be less than that. Kerry and Gore got 46% but lost the election. With Obama doing 9 points better than Kerry, and McCain 12 points better than Bush in Arkansas, it looks like it will trend that much more again. I could be wrong though and it'll be more like 60-40.

[technical support]

I'm going to list the 4 regions of our nation and give my early predictions for each state and then do a separate category for battleground states. Let's take these predictions with a grain of salt since the election is more than 3 months away, but I think it will be fun for us to predict nonetheless.

Northeast:

Maine 57-42 Obama
Vermont 69-30 Obama
Massachusetts 60-39 Obama to 54-45 Obama depending on how well Romney and Brown do
Rhode Island 62-37 Obama
Connecticut 57-42 Obama
New York 61-38 Obama
New Jersey 56-44 to 52-48 Obama if Christie is the VP
Delaware 63-37 Obama
Maryland 61-39 Obama
D.C. 92-8 Obama

South:

West Virginia 65-35 Romney
Kentucky 60-40 Romney
Tennessee 66-34 Romney
Arkansas 74-26 Romney
Oklahoma 75-25 Romney
Texas 58-42 Romney
Louisiana 68-31 Romney
Mississippi 59-41 Romney
Alabama 62-37 Romney
Georgia 55-45 Romney
South Carolina 57-42 Romney

Midwest:

Illinois 61-39 Obama
North Dakota 58-41 Romney
South Dakota 57-42 Romney
Nebraska 62-38 Romney
Kansas 59-40 Romney

West:

Wyoming 70-29 Romney
Utah 73-27 Romney
Idaho 65-34 Romney
Washington 54-45 Obama
Oregon 56-43 Obama
California 58-42 Obama
Arizona 56-44 Romney
Hawaii 64-36 Obama
Alaska 62-38 Romney

Battlegrounds:

Montana 54-44 Romney
Colorado 51-49 Obama
New Mexico 54-46 Obama
Nevada 52-47 Obama
Missouri 55-45 Romney
Iowa 52-48 Obama
Minnesota 53-46 Obama or 51-48 Romney if Pawlenty is VP
Wisconsin 54-46 Obama
Michigan 52-47 Obama
Indiana 55-45 Romney
Virginia 50-49 to 53-47 Romney if McDonnell is VP
North Carolina 52-47 Romney
Florida 53-47 Romney to 55-44 if Rubio is VP
Pennsylvania 51-49 Obama
New Hampshire 51-48 Romney
Ohio- too close to call

Your battleground states are a mess. Ohio is not to close to call. Romney hasn't led there since. NH  will go to obama and penn obama will have a bigger lead. Va is the state thats to close to call obama might win there by a few points.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

I'm going to list the 4 regions of our nation and give my early predictions for each state and then do a separate category for battleground states. Let's take these predictions with a grain of salt since the election is more than 3 months away, but I think it will be fun for us to predict nonetheless.

Northeast:

Maine 57-42 Obama
Vermont 69-30 Obama
Massachusetts 60-39 Obama to 54-45 Obama depending on how well Romney and Brown do
Rhode Island 62-37 Obama
Connecticut 57-42 Obama
New York 61-38 Obama
New Jersey 56-44 to 52-48 Obama if Christie is the VP
Delaware 63-37 Obama
Maryland 61-39 Obama
D.C. 92-8 Obama

South:

West Virginia 65-35 Romney
Kentucky 60-40 Romney
Tennessee 66-34 Romney
Arkansas 74-26 Romney
Oklahoma 75-25 Romney
Texas 58-42 Romney
Louisiana 68-31 Romney
Mississippi 59-41 Romney
Alabama 62-37 Romney
Georgia 55-45 Romney
South Carolina 57-42 Romney

Midwest:

Illinois 61-39 Obama
North Dakota 58-41 Romney
South Dakota 57-42 Romney
Nebraska 62-38 Romney
Kansas 59-40 Romney

West:

Wyoming 70-29 Romney
Utah 73-27 Romney
Idaho 65-34 Romney
Washington 54-45 Obama
Oregon 56-43 Obama
California 58-42 Obama
Arizona 56-44 Romney
Hawaii 64-36 Obama
Alaska 62-38 Romney

Battlegrounds:

Montana 54-44 Romney
Colorado 51-49 Obama
New Mexico 54-46 Obama
Nevada 52-47 Obama
Missouri 55-45 Romney
Iowa 52-48 Obama
Minnesota 53-46 Obama or 51-48 Romney if Pawlenty is VP
Wisconsin 54-46 Obama
Michigan 52-47 Obama
Indiana 55-45 Romney
Virginia 50-49 to 53-47 Romney if McDonnell is VP
North Carolina 52-47 Romney
Florida 53-47 Romney to 55-44 if Rubio is VP
Pennsylvania 51-49 Obama
New Hampshire 51-48 Romney
Ohio- too close to call

Your battleground states are a mess. Ohio is not to close to call. Romney hasn't led there since. NH  will go to obama and penn obama will have a bigger lead. Va is the state thats to close to call obama might win there by a few points.

Well yea sure if the election were held tonight. Let's take into account people starting to pay attention after labor day, 3 debates, more gaffes by both sides, and spending and fundraising continuing. I specified that I wasn't asking about if the election were held tonight.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I don't see Obama losing that much ground in the South; he was whittled down to his base in 2008 in the states that swung R. Unless Obama orders the nuking of Little Rock, I can't see Arkansas going 3:1 for Romney. Remember, black turnout plus the fact that Arkansas whites are more Democratic gives Democrats a solid base of 35% at absolute McGovern level. If Arkansas is >70% Romney (and I don't see why there would be a 20 point swing), New York is probably in his column too.

Those states have been trending to the right such as AR, LA, TN, KY, and WV. Obama only got 39% in 2008 there and it's bound to be less than that. Kerry and Gore got 46% but lost the election. With Obama doing 9 points better than Kerry, and McCain 12 points better than Bush in Arkansas, it looks like it will trend that much more again. I could be wrong though and it'll be more like 60-40.

However, due to blacks and unions, Obama has to hit a floor at some point. Trends don't continue forever.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

I don't see Obama losing that much ground in the South; he was whittled down to his base in 2008 in the states that swung R. Unless Obama orders the nuking of Little Rock, I can't see Arkansas going 3:1 for Romney. Remember, black turnout plus the fact that Arkansas whites are more Democratic gives Democrats a solid base of 35% at absolute McGovern level. If Arkansas is >70% Romney (and I don't see why there would be a 20 point swing), New York is probably in his column too.

Those states have been trending to the right such as AR, LA, TN, KY, and WV. Obama only got 39% in 2008 there and it's bound to be less than that. Kerry and Gore got 46% but lost the election. With Obama doing 9 points better than Kerry, and McCain 12 points better than Bush in Arkansas, it looks like it will trend that much more again. I could be wrong though and it'll be more like 60-40.

However, due to blacks and unions, Obama has to hit a floor at some point. Trends don't continue forever.

True but Arkansas if a right to work state. I do know what you mean though.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I see no one is responding to Darius' valid synopsis that no body is really paying attention right now and won't until at least after the Olympics and probably not until after Labor Day.

I still can't seem to understand why many on this forum think Obama has this election in the bag.  Late July does not equal Early November.  For instance, Obama has been hitting Romney over Bain Capital and, guess what, despite what the media says, it is NOT WORKING.  Obama has had 1-2% lead for months and has not budged.  American's don't really care what happened 10 years ago, they care about what is happening now.  Obama can still win, but right now, I think Romney has a slight edge.  Romney may be behind slightly, now, but once people start paying attention, the economy is going to be even further front and center and Obama doesn't have a leg to stand on with the economy.

[mondale84]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

LOL

[mondale84]

I see no one is responding to Darius' valid synopsis that no body is really paying attention right now and won't until at least after the Olympics and probably not until after Labor Day.

I still can't seem to understand why many on this forum think Obama has this election in the bag.  Late July does not equal Early November.  For instance, Obama has been hitting Romney over Bain Capital and, guess what, despite what the media says, it is NOT WORKING.  Obama has had 1-2% lead for months and has not budged.  American's don't really care what happened 10 years ago, they care about what is happening now.  Obama can still win, but right now, I think Romney has a slight edge.  Romney may be behind slightly, now, but once people start paying attention, the economy is going to be even further front and center and Obama doesn't have a leg to stand on with the economy.

Did you even read his prediction numbers?

Obama at 31% in Lousiana? at 26% in Arkansas? at 34% in Tennessee? LOL

You people are too good...

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

I see no one is responding to Darius' valid synopsis that no body is really paying attention right now and won't until at least after the Olympics and probably not until after Labor Day.

I still can't seem to understand why many on this forum think Obama has this election in the bag.  Late July does not equal Early November.  For instance, Obama has been hitting Romney over Bain Capital and, guess what, despite what the media says, it is NOT WORKING.  Obama has had 1-2% lead for months and has not budged.  American's don't really care what happened 10 years ago, they care about what is happening now.  Obama can still win, but right now, I think Romney has a slight edge.  Romney may be behind slightly, now, but once people start paying attention, the economy is going to be even further front and center and Obama doesn't have a leg to stand on with the economy.

Did you even read his prediction numbers?

Obama at 31% in Lousiana? at 26% in Arkansas? at 34% in Tennessee? LOL

You people are too good...

Well perhaps my predictions will be closer next time we predict. It's July and that's just a projection for right now. I'd still like to see how the polls change in another 5 weeks after Labor Day. I remember 2004 and 2008 the GOP got a huge boost. In the latter election year, it only lasted until the housing market collapsed though.

[Joe Biden 2020]

I see no one is responding to Darius' valid synopsis that no body is really paying attention right now and won't until at least after the Olympics and probably not until after Labor Day.

I still can't seem to understand why many on this forum think Obama has this election in the bag.  Late July does not equal Early November.  For instance, Obama has been hitting Romney over Bain Capital and, guess what, despite what the media says, it is NOT WORKING.  Obama has had 1-2% lead for months and has not budged.  American's don't really care what happened 10 years ago, they care about what is happening now.  Obama can still win, but right now, I think Romney has a slight edge.  Romney may be behind slightly, now, but once people start paying attention, the economy is going to be even further front and center and Obama doesn't have a leg to stand on with the economy.

Did you even read his prediction numbers?

Obama at 31% in Lousiana? at 26% in Arkansas? at 34% in Tennessee? LOL

You people are too good...

Again, you didn't address the fact that this is JULY not NOVEMBER...

[timothyinMD]

I predict Obama will perform worse in all 50 states.  He may improve by tenths of a point in DC.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

I predict Obama will perform worse in all 50 states.  He may improve by tenths of a point in DC.

You know Timothy, 3 weeks ago I was at a wedding in Gettysburg, PA but most people there were from Westminster, MD. My best friend was the best man and we drove from northwestern PA down to WV and across MD on 68 just to avoid the $25 it would've cost us to get there and only took an extra 45 minutes. Every single person at the wedding was a conservative but being from Maryland they were grim. On our way home I explained to my friend that the world they see in such a blue state isn't the same as we see living in a reddish/purple area. Do you find that many of your Republican friends are grim about elections and their party in general? Also, most of the people we know there are conservatives. Outside of Prince Georges County it seems to be rather red. Is it frustrating having to live in such a place? If so you have my sympathy.

[© tweed]

I predict Obama will perform worse in all 50 states.  He may improve by tenths of a point in DC.

no, that's about where he is least likely to improve.

[mondale84]

I see no one is responding to Darius' valid synopsis that no body is really paying attention right now and won't until at least after the Olympics and probably not until after Labor Day.

I still can't seem to understand why many on this forum think Obama has this election in the bag.  Late July does not equal Early November.  For instance, Obama has been hitting Romney over Bain Capital and, guess what, despite what the media says, it is NOT WORKING.  Obama has had 1-2% lead for months and has not budged.  American's don't really care what happened 10 years ago, they care about what is happening now.  Obama can still win, but right now, I think Romney has a slight edge.  Romney may be behind slightly, now, but once people start paying attention, the economy is going to be even further front and center and Obama doesn't have a leg to stand on with the economy.

Did you even read his prediction numbers?

Obama at 31% in Lousiana? at 26% in Arkansas? at 34% in Tennessee? LOL

You people are too good...

Again, you didn't address the fact that this is JULY not NOVEMBER...

Even if Obama sodomizes a puppy every day from now until election day, he will get more than 26% of the vote in Arkansas

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

I see no one is responding to Darius' valid synopsis that no body is really paying attention right now and won't until at least after the Olympics and probably not until after Labor Day.

I still can't seem to understand why many on this forum think Obama has this election in the bag.  Late July does not equal Early November.  For instance, Obama has been hitting Romney over Bain Capital and, guess what, despite what the media says, it is NOT WORKING.  Obama has had 1-2% lead for months and has not budged.  American's don't really care what happened 10 years ago, they care about what is happening now.  Obama can still win, but right now, I think Romney has a slight edge.  Romney may be behind slightly, now, but once people start paying attention, the economy is going to be even further front and center and Obama doesn't have a leg to stand on with the economy.

Did you even read his prediction numbers?

Obama at 31% in Lousiana? at 26% in Arkansas? at 34% in Tennessee? LOL

You people are too good...

Again, you didn't address the fact that this is JULY not NOVEMBER...

Even if Obama sodomizes a puppy every day from now until election day, he will get more than 26% of the vote in Arkansas

Do you? really? I'm taking that with a grain of salt but Arkansas will be one of the 5 reddest states come this fall.

[Devils30]

Obama wins by less than 1% nationally but takes 303 electoral votes with narrow victories in Ohio and Virginia.

[mondale84]

I see no one is responding to Darius' valid synopsis that no body is really paying attention right now and won't until at least after the Olympics and probably not until after Labor Day.

I still can't seem to understand why many on this forum think Obama has this election in the bag.  Late July does not equal Early November.  For instance, Obama has been hitting Romney over Bain Capital and, guess what, despite what the media says, it is NOT WORKING.  Obama has had 1-2% lead for months and has not budged.  American's don't really care what happened 10 years ago, they care about what is happening now.  Obama can still win, but right now, I think Romney has a slight edge.  Romney may be behind slightly, now, but once people start paying attention, the economy is going to be even further front and center and Obama doesn't have a leg to stand on with the economy.

Did you even read his prediction numbers?

Obama at 31% in Lousiana? at 26% in Arkansas? at 34% in Tennessee? LOL

You people are too good...

Again, you didn't address the fact that this is JULY not NOVEMBER...

Even if Obama sodomizes a puppy every day from now until election day, he will get more than 26% of the vote in Arkansas

Do you? really? I'm taking that with a grain of salt but Arkansas will be one of the 5 reddest states come this fall.

Absurdity can be used to make a point...

Yes, I know Arkansas will be very blue (Republican) this fall, but Obama is going to get more than 26% of the vote and I'm willing to bet you a lot of money that he will get more than 30%.