NV: Rasmussen: Obama clinging to 50% in Nevada

[Miles]

What would you say if I told you PPP (which tilts Democratic) found Republicans leading in the 2014 Oregon Senate race? Considering Obama will probably be reelected in 2012 and that because of Europe+the drought there will be a second dip in 2013, 2014 seems likely to be a very good year for the Republicans, perhaps comparable to 2010.    

I'm inclined to agree with this. 2014 will likely be a net negative for the Ds, but I doubt it will match 2010.

In the House it certainly won't, but in the Senate it can far outstrip it. The only real opportunities Democrats have are Maine (if Collins retires) and Kentucky, but both are doubtful. Republicans are probably favored in Alaska (Begich barely won in 2008 against an opponent believed to be corrupt), Montana (everyone hates Baucus nowadays), South Dakota (popular ex-Governor Mike Rounds is believed to be running, he'll have a Hoeven effect if he does), Oregon (U.S. Rep. Greg Walden already leads Merkley, who is for some reason stuck in the low 40s in PPP polling), and Louisiana (Landrieu is talented but LA is becoming redder by the day, and Republicans have a strong bench). That's five pickups right there. Republicans will also certainly compete in West Virginia (Rockefeller is set to retire; if Capito runs, Democrats are screwed), Iowa (polling shows Harkin leading but under 50), Colorado (Jane Norton is apparently planning to run again; polling shows her down ten points, but Udall is below 50), North Carolina (Tillis is running; PPP shows him behind, but Hagan is, again, under 50), Arkansas (Pryor is popular, but this state is going the wrong way fast) and New Hampshire (Shaheen has been fundraising very badly and the Republican bench in NH is deep). That's six more. And I haven't even mentioned things like VA and NJ and MA and IL that depend on candidates.

Even if Romney wins and the economy dips in 2013, Republicans will probably still pick up Senate seats in 2014 because the map is just so good for them.

On the same token, I can see Democrats regaining the Senate in 2016. It'll be a Presidential year, which will hurt mediocre Republicans, like Blunt and Burr, who were buoyed by the 2010 wave.

I'll do a 2014 analysis at some point soon, but yes, there are plenty of GOP opportunities.

However, I can speak for LA...Landrieu started raising money last year and she's at 50% approval or better in all the polls I've seen thus far. Its rumored that Cassidy will take the plunge against her. She's best with local issues (like securing funds for hurricane/BP restoration). At this point, I'd say its a tossup at worst for her.

[Sbane]

Both Arizona and Nevada gain a lot of people from California, the difference being old conservatives love Arizona while a more representative sample of California moves to Nevada. Actually it's probably more working class than the state since the jobs available in Nevada tend to be working class jobs. And since most of them are non-whites, this helps the Democrats immensely. Should point out that this is not something that happened overnight. These populations shifts have been occurring for decades.

[Talleyrand]

What would you say if I told you PPP (which tilts Democratic) found Republicans leading in the 2014 Oregon Senate race? Considering Obama will probably be reelected in 2012 and that because of Europe+the drought there will be a second dip in 2013, 2014 seems likely to be a very good year for the Republicans, perhaps comparable to 2010.    

I'm inclined to agree with this. 2014 will likely be a net negative for the Ds, but I doubt it will match 2010.

In the House it certainly won't, but in the Senate it can far outstrip it. The only real opportunities Democrats have are Maine (if Collins retires) and Kentucky, but both are doubtful. Republicans are probably favored in Alaska (Begich barely won in 2008 against an opponent believed to be corrupt), Montana (everyone hates Baucus nowadays), South Dakota (popular ex-Governor Mike Rounds is believed to be running, he'll have a Hoeven effect if he does), Oregon (U.S. Rep. Greg Walden already leads Merkley, who is for some reason stuck in the low 40s in PPP polling), and Louisiana (Landrieu is talented but LA is becoming redder by the day, and Republicans have a strong bench). That's five pickups right there. Republicans will also certainly compete in West Virginia (Rockefeller is set to retire; if Capito runs, Democrats are screwed), Iowa (polling shows Harkin leading but under 50), Colorado (Jane Norton is apparently planning to run again; polling shows her down ten points, but Udall is below 50), North Carolina (Tillis is running; PPP shows him behind, but Hagan is, again, under 50), Arkansas (Pryor is popular, but this state is going the wrong way fast) and New Hampshire (Shaheen has been fundraising very badly and the Republican bench in NH is deep). That's six more. And I haven't even mentioned things like VA and NJ and MA and IL that depend on candidates.

Even if Romney wins and the economy dips in 2013, Republicans will probably still pick up Senate seats in 2014 because the map is just so good for them.

I agree for the most part. However, Rounds is not nearly as popular as Hoeven. Johnson will probably retire anyway, due to health reasons. Don't underestimate Baucus either. His approvals are underwater, but he's not going to be the next Blanche Lincoln. He has a powerful state organization (similar to Reid's) and has been winning elections for close to forty years. The Montana GOP doesn't seem to have too many impressive candidates either, so I wouldn't count him out. Oregon is not a certain pickup. Walden is far too conservative for the state and the GOP hasn't won a statewide election since 2002. He's also rising fast in the House, and he might want to stick around there. Merkley's race will be close, but I bet he holds on.

Michigan is also vulnerable, depending on a potential Levin retirement and the political environment. Massachusetts is safe if Kerry runs for reelection. The only candidate who can put it into play is Scott Brown, and he'd be tarnished if he ran again. If the Dems nominated a strong candidate like Coakley, Patrick, or even that Kennedy kid, he'd probably lose. After Jane Norton's highly impressive 2010 campaign and Colorado's political trends, I think Udall is almost as safe as his cousin in New Meexico.

[Darius_Addicus_Gaius]

Nevada will likely go for the winner of the election but with a gun to my head I'd say it would go blue before it went red.

[Minnesota Mike]

Nevada will likely go for the winner of the election but with a gun to my head I'd say it would go blue before it went red.

Atlas Blue or rest of the world Blue?