Fast forward to Iowa 2016! PPP already polling.
Keystone Phil:
http://politi.co/NN1JDw
Santorum and Huckabee are tied in the Hawkeye State with Christie just a point behind them. Rand Paul is on fourth and Rubio in fifth.
The real hilarity (wait to notice the pun) is on the Dem side: Hillary is up 60% to Biden's 18%. Cuomo is tied with Elizabeth Warren at 3%. Take Hillary out and Biden leads Cuomo comfortably but Warren goes up to 8%!
Warren 4 Secretary of Everything:
The 2016 Republican Nominee will be certain right after 2012 is over. It's always whoever is next in line.
The Democratic Nominee is always the underdog. Just think, no one knew who Barack Obama was in 2004.
In 2008, Clinton was certain to win, then Barack came and snatched the nomination. In 2004, Dean was gonna take it, Kerry takes Iowa and the nomination. In 1992, Paul Tsongas was our nominee, until Bill Clinton became the "Comeback Kid". Gary Hart was front runner in 1988, Mike Dukakis wins. 1976, Jimmy Carter comes from nowhere. I doubt Clinton or Biden runs.
My personal choice, is soon-to-be New Mexico Senator Martin Heinrich. Andrew Cuomo is in second and Martin O'Malley in third. Elizabeth Warren is way to far to the left to win. In the back of my mind, I kinda hope she loses in November so the media doesn't try to talk her up is a presidential contender.
Dereich:
Quote from: Clinton1996 "You Know You Miss Your Daddy" on July 23, 2012, 03:20:53 PM
The 2016 Republican Nominee will be certain right after 2012 is over. It's always whoever is next in line.
And who is that supposed to be? No obvious heir is present and I could easily argue that Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee were more obvious heirs for this year. The current primary system isn't very old and we have too few datapoints to really say anything definative like that. Added to that the fact that quite a few GOP heavyweights look like they'll jump into the 2016 fight and I don't think this will hold true at all.
Mr. Morden:
Here are the full results:
Clinton 60%
Biden 18%
Cuomo 3%
Warren 3%
Schweitzer 1%
Warner 1%
O'Malley 0%
Patrick 0%
If Clinton doesn't run:
Biden 36%
Cuomo 14%
Warren 8%
Schweitzer 4%
Warner 3%
O'Malley 2%
Patrick 0%
If neither Biden nor Clinton run:
Cuomo 20%
Warren 11%
Warner 6%
Patrick 4%
Schweitzer 4%
O'Malley 2%
GOP:
Huckabee 17%
Santorum 17%
Christie 16%
Rand Paul 11%
Rubio 10%
J. Bush 8%
Ryan 6%
Palin 4%
Walker 4%
Here's PPP's 2016 Iowa poll from May:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=153361.0
Very little change since then. Clinton still has a huge lead. Biden has actually gained a little. Cuomo has a somewhat bigger lead in the scenario where Biden and Clinton don't run, but I think that's because they stopped polling Feingold, who had been 2nd in that scenario. Clinton now does equally well among self-described liberals and self-described moderates. She's at 63% among women and 55% among men. In a reversal from the earlier poll, Clinton does better among voters under 45 than she does with olds, in part because Biden is catching on among olds (though still way behind Clinton).
On the GOP side, things are remarkably stable. Huckabee and Santorum have exactly the same tie they had in the last poll, with Christie still 1 point behind. Biggest change is Palin's decline. She was at 10% in the last poll, but has now dropped all the way to 4%, a very anemic number for someone with such high name recognition.
Mr. Morden:
GOP winners among each demographic group:
Tea Party member: Paul
not Tea Party member: Huckabee
not sure if Tea Party member: Christie
Evangelical: Santorum
not Evangelical: Christie
moderate: Christie
somewhat conservative: Huckabee
very conservative: Santorum
men: Santorum
women: Huckabee
Republicans: Santorum
Independents: Paul
age 18-45: Christie/Paul tie
age 46-64: Santorum
older than 65: Santorum
Democratic candidates' favorable/unfavorable ratings among Democratic voters:
Clinton 90/6 for +84
Biden 79/11 for +68
Warren 30/10 for +20
Cuomo 26/19 for +7
Patrick 10/9 for +1
Warner 10/10 for +/-0
O'Malley 4/8 for -4
Schweitzer 5/10 for -5
Republican candidates' favorable/unfavorable ratings among Republican voters:
Huckabee 68/20 for +48
Rubio 57/13 for +44
Santorum 65/22 for +43
Christie 57/17 for +40
Walker 50/12 for +38
Ryan 49/14 for +35
Palin 60/26 for +34
J. Bush 53/19 for +34
Rand Paul 49/29 for +20
Yes, Clinton has hit 90% favorability among Iowa Dems. Again, have we ever had a candidate who started a campaign with such high favorables from their party, aside from an incumbent president?
On the GOP side, several candidates are seeing somewhat diminished favorability since May (Bush, Palin, and Paul being down the most), but Christie's favorability has actually gone up.
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