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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  Partisan identification in polls
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Author Topic: Partisan identification in polls  (Read 1465 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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« on: July 15, 2012, 12:21:36 pm »

Here is a key quote from a posting by Jay Cost, about three years ago:

Gallup and Pew Consistently Underestimate Republican Identifiers Relative to the Exit Poll.

Pew tends to be more pessimistic about the GOP's standing than Gallup, but both always show fewer Republicans than the exit polls. The difference is typically 5 to 7 points.

www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2009/05/understanding_recent_changes_I.html
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Brittain33
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« Reply #1 on: July 15, 2012, 12:51:01 pm »

I recall your making a similar point prior to the AZ-8 special as to why polls showing a Barber lead were inaccurate.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: July 15, 2012, 01:24:12 pm »

Incidentally one of the theories I've seen concerning exit polls is that exit pollsters are more likely to exit poll young females compared to other demographics in the electorate.
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