How could Obama be matching his 2008 performance in VA and NC? Doesn't make sense.
Care to explain why it doesn't make sense?
If you assume Obama is up 3-4 points nationally, which is half his margin of victory in 2008, why would NC and VA have shifted so that much more to the left in just three and a half years when VA wasn't kind at all to Obama in 2010?
Doesn't really matter though, four months is a very long time politically given that the economy has stalled.
Both VA & NC have been shifting Democratic for the last several elections. 2010 was a midterm, the turnout dynamics are going to be very different this time, granted its not going to be the same as 08 either, but its at least a Presidential election.
Regardless it makes sense that both VA & NC are going to trend a few points more Democratic than the rest of the nation.
When it comes down to it I would generally expect the margin in NC to be roughly 2-3 points more friendly to the GOP than the nation, and in VA I would say about 3-4 points more Democratic than the nation.