2008 jewish exit polls are false (Jews aren't that libreal)

[Torie]

Not having read the whole thread, can one get any sense whether Orthodox Jews were underrepresented in the sample? If they were not, then NYJew's case kind of falls apart overall. If they were under-sampled, then potential he's right, assuming that there is a big ideological difference.  Does the below give any clue as to what percentage of the Jewish sample were Orthodox, and how does that comport with the breakdown between sects among the Jews who are voters? What percentage of self identified Jews over 18 call themselves "Orthodox?"  25%?  Wiki says 13%, and of adults over 18 we might be getting down close to 10%.  If so, there is just not much gas in their tank no matter how they vote.

But yes, it does appear to be an important question.

[Torie]

That gets us up to 20% in the NE. Which if so, means the Orthodox percentage in the US ex NE must be minuscule, around 3% or something  (I assume at least half the Jews live in the NE). Really?

[Torie]

That gets us up to 20% in the NE. Which if so, means the Orthodox percentage in the US ex NE must be minuscule, around 3% or something  (I assume at least half the Jews live in the NE). Really?

it varies drastically by location (these are from the last federation study done for each city)
in the Chicago metro (7% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)
in the Cleveland metro (in 2011) 18% of all Jews were Orthodox and 10% of all Jewish households (Orthodox Jews live in other parts of Cleveland (Wickliffe for example) besides those 3 ED you researched)
in the Detroit metro (12% of all Jewish households are Orthodox)

the really low % numbers come in Florida besides the strip from Boca Raton to Miami, the Left Coast, and areas with almost no Jews throughout the country at large outside of the NE.

Your ex NE numbers don't average out to 3% of the Jews outside thereof being orthodox, and 97% of the self identified Jews not. It doesn't matter that Iowa does not have many Jews. It matters what percentage of all 2,500 of them or whatever or Orthodox. Actually, that does  not matter much either. What matters is that are the other major ex-NE Jewish nodes, in particular LA, just 3% Orthodox (some of the smaller nodes you already suggested are much higher)?  That is the math you have to deal with, if just 10% of the Jewish voters are Orthodox, but twice that percentage in the NE. You get shoved out on a limb with a seemingly absurd number as to the Orthodox percentage ex-NE - unless you don't think it absurd.

[Torie]

OK, but the point is that the overall total Orthodox percentage to make your numbers in the hunt needs to be about 15% of Jewish voters being Orthodox, rather than 10%.  That is a pretty big jump in 10 years.