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March 03, 2021, 03:33:55 AM

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Process
  Polling (Moderator: muon2)
  Polling sample for states. How does it work?
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Author Topic: Polling sample for states. How does it work?  (Read 1313 times)
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« on: August 23, 2012, 05:27:29 AM »

Call me stupid but I have a few questions that I want to clear up on polling.

1) How do pollsters determine a sample?
Is it based on registration? party id affiliation?
2) How do pollsters get  a cross section of a state taking part in a poll? quotas?
3) Do pollsters use quotas?
4) How do pollsters know how many indepedents to poll since we've had a two party system for so long?
5)  Do phone pollsters contact people with cell phones? I imagine alot of people under 30 dont have home phones but live with just internet and cell.
6) Why are democrats underpolled in places like Nevada, Wisconsin, New Jersey and Pennslyvania? (polls never in line with actual results..vote always appears fragile..is this cell phone factor?)
7) Likely voters are more reliable than registered voters. So why do polling firms use reigstered voters despite its unreliabilty?

Does anyone have a state by state guide on correct sample ids?
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Posts: 19,338
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« Reply #1 on: August 25, 2012, 11:32:35 PM »

Well, if you're PPP, you load your sample with as many Democrats as possible.
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