FIFA World Cup 2014 Qualifying

[Keystone Phil]

Yeah, I was going to point out the Luxembourg win yesterday but there was just too much going on.

Our minnows are growing up...

[Gustaf]

Colombia is through in every non-technical way. For them to miss out on qualifying Ecuador and Uruguay must tie and then both win their other games while Colombia loses both AND Ecuador making up 9 and Uruguay 13 goals in goal difference. The latter part is obviously not happening.

Belgium and Germany are other examples of teams that are through in reality. And Spain.

Sweden situation is looking bad. Bloody Irish. We have to beat Austria, since Austria will beat Faroe islands and we will lose against Germany and we're already behind on goal difference. Those sucky games against Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands are coming back to bite us now.

[Franknburger]

Colombia is through in every non-technical way. For them to miss out on qualifying Ecuador and Uruguay must tie and then both win their other games while Colombia loses both AND Ecuador making up 9 and Uruguay 13 goals in goal difference. The latter part is obviously not happening.

Belgium and Germany are other examples of teams that are through in reality. And Spain.

Sweden situation is looking bad. Bloody Irish. We have to beat Austria, since Austria will beat Faroe islands and we will lose against Germany and we're already behind on goal difference. Those sucky games against Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands are coming back to bite us now.

Let's put it like this: If you beat Austria, you deserve 2nd place, if not, then not. Don't blame the Irish.

[Tender Branson]

Sweden situation is looking bad. Bloody Irish. We have to beat Austria, since Austria will beat Faroe islands and we will lose against Germany and we're already behind on goal difference. Those sucky games against Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands are coming back to bite us now.

You can take comfort in the fact that Austria has never won an away-game under coach Marcel Koller so far. Out of 5 away games.

So, everything seems possible.

Germany will be definitely out for revenge for the 4-4 tie against you in Berlin.

But as I've said before, we won't automatically win against the Faroer Islands. If any team can lose against them and fumble the 2nd group spot, it's Austria. We already lost to them in the early 90s ...

[Јas]

What exactly happens if we beat the Faroer Islands and tie Sweden for 18 points and Sweden loses to Germany for 18 points too ?

Does the better goal difference count then, or the direct matchup (where we'd have an advantage since we won at home and tied abroad) ?

Does anyone know it ?

The ranking in each group is determined as follows:
a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) goal difference in all group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings shall be determined as follows:
d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) greater number of goals scored away from home between the teams concerned (if the tie is only between two teams)

http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/Regulations/01/87/54/21/1875421_DOWNLOAD.pdf

[Tender Branson]

What exactly happens if we beat the Faroer Islands and tie Sweden for 18 points and Sweden loses to Germany for 18 points too ?

Does the better goal difference count then, or the direct matchup (where we'd have an advantage since we won at home and tied abroad) ?

Does anyone know it ?

The ranking in each group is determined as follows:
a) greatest number of points obtained in all group matches;
b) goal difference in all group matches;
c) greatest number of goals scored in all group matches.

If two or more teams are equal on the basis of the above three criteria, their rankings shall be determined as follows:
d) greatest number of points obtained in the group matches between the teams concerned;
e) goal difference resulting from the group matches between the teams concerned;
f) greater number of goals scored in all group matches between the teams concerned;
g) greater number of goals scored away from home between the teams concerned (if the tie is only between two teams)

http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/competitions/Regulations/01/87/54/21/1875421_DOWNLOAD.pdf

So, it's actually the goal difference and not the direct matchups ?

That means we are still favoured, because or goal difference is by 2 better than Sweden.

And considering that we must tie Sweden and Sweden must lose to Germany, it won't get any better for Sweden either in these scenarios.

We on the other hand can score a few more goals against the Faroers.

[Peeperkorn]

What exactly happens if we beat the Faroer Islands and tie Sweden for 18 points and Sweden loses to Germany for 18 points too ?

Does the better goal difference count then, or the direct matchup (where we'd have an advantage since we won at home and tied abroad) ?

Stop Austria. You will never world cup again (Anschluss would be necessary).

[Peeperkorn]

Next World Cups should be:

23 from UEFA.
8 from CONMEBOL.
1 from the rest of the world.

[Tender Branson]

What exactly happens if we beat the Faroer Islands and tie Sweden for 18 points and Sweden loses to Germany for 18 points too ?

Does the better goal difference count then, or the direct matchup (where we'd have an advantage since we won at home and tied abroad) ?

Stop Austria. You will never world cup again (Anchluss would be necessary).

No, the only thing that's necessary would be that David Alaba has 4 more good days (against Sweden, Faroers and in the 2 play-off games) ...

But yeah, in reality, I don't really see much chances either.

[Keystone Phil]

Next World Cups should be:

23 from UEFA.
8 from CONMEBOL.
1 from the rest of the world.

You're being slightly generous to CONMEBOL but otherwise, yes, perfect.

[Franknburger]

Next World Cups should be:

23 from UEFA.
8 from CONMEBOL.
1 from the rest of the world.

You're being slightly generous to CONMEBOL but otherwise, yes, perfect.

I am actually fine with four to five African teams - among Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast and South Africa (possibly also Egypt & Morocco), there is always one that can make it to the quarterfinals. Asia/Oceania  could go down to 3, seven from the Americas (I leave it to you guys to do the North-South splitting). 17-18 UEFA sounds about right.

If Austria and Switzerland would unite, they could actually come up with a quite competitive team. As far as I am concerned, no Anschluss is needed  (just pass over David Alaba, our right-hand defence is not that great...).

The British might, b.t.w., consider whether one team making it past the last sixteen wouldn't be better then proving to Luxemburg that there are teams they can beat.

[Tender Branson]

Next World Cups should be:

23 from UEFA.
8 from CONMEBOL.
1 from the rest of the world.

You're being slightly generous to CONMEBOL but otherwise, yes, perfect.

I am actually fine with four to five African teams - among Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast and South Africa (possibly also Egypt & Morocco), there is always one that can make it to the quarterfinals. Asia/Oceania  could go down to 3, seven from the Americas (I leave it to you guys to do the North-South splitting). 17-18 UEFA sounds about right.

If Austria and Switzerland would unite, they could actually come up with a quite competitive team. As far as I am concerned, no Anschluss is needed  (just pass over David Alaba, our right-hand defence is not that great...).

The British might, b.t.w., consider whether one team making it past the last sixteen wouldn't be better then proving to Luxemburg that there are teams they can beat.

Does Liechtenstein merge with us too ?

What's the name for the new country then ?

Alpenstein ?

Alpania ?

Alpinia ?

[minionofmidas]

Colombia is through in every non-technical way. For them to miss out on qualifying Ecuador and Uruguay must tie and then both win their other games while Colombia loses both AND Ecuador making up 9 and Uruguay 13 goals in goal difference. The latter part is obviously not happening.

Belgium and Germany are other examples of teams that are through in reality. And Spain.

Sweden situation is looking bad. Bloody Irish. We have to beat Austria, since Austria will beat Faroe islands and we will lose against Germany and we're already behind on goal difference. Those sucky games against Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands are coming back to bite us now.

This is Austria we're talking about. I would not be surprised to find Germany very happy to give you a point on a golden platter.

Does Liechtenstein merge with us too ?

What's the name for the new country then ?

Alpenstein ?

Alpania ?

Alpinia ?

Greater Liechtenstein?

[Peeperkorn]

Next World Cups should be:

23 from UEFA.
8 from CONMEBOL.
1 from the rest of the world.

You're being slightly generous to CONMEBOL but otherwise, yes, perfect.

I am actually fine with four to five African teams - among Cameroon, Nigeria, Ghana, Ivory Coast and South Africa (possibly also Egypt & Morocco), there is always one that can make it to the quarterfinals. Asia/Oceania  could go down to 3, seven from the Americas (I leave it to you guys to do the North-South splitting). 17-18 UEFA sounds about right.

If Austria and Switzerland would unite, they could actually come up with a quite competitive team. As far as I am concerned, no Anschluss is needed  (just pass over David Alaba, our right-hand defence is not that great...).

The British might, b.t.w., consider whether one team making it past the last sixteen wouldn't be better then proving to Luxemburg that there are teams they can beat.

South Africa?

England has always been a lie.

[Gustaf]

Colombia is through in every non-technical way. For them to miss out on qualifying Ecuador and Uruguay must tie and then both win their other games while Colombia loses both AND Ecuador making up 9 and Uruguay 13 goals in goal difference. The latter part is obviously not happening.

Belgium and Germany are other examples of teams that are through in reality. And Spain.

Sweden situation is looking bad. Bloody Irish. We have to beat Austria, since Austria will beat Faroe islands and we will lose against Germany and we're already behind on goal difference. Those sucky games against Kazakhstan and Faroe Islands are coming back to bite us now.

Let's put it like this: If you beat Austria, you deserve 2nd place, if not, then not. Don't blame the Irish.

I'm not sure why anything should be put in terms of deserving anything. And it was also a joke.

Confederation spots should definitely be revised.

I think it should be something like

UEFA: 18.5
CONMEBOL: 6.5
CONCACAF: 1.5
CAF: 3
AFC: 2
OFC: 0.5

-------------------

I've done some different calculations over time and they tend to come out to something like this.

[Gustaf]

Actually, scratch that, I have an almost scientific answer to this!

UEFA: 17.5
CONMEBOL: 7
CONCACAF: 2.5
AFC: 2.5
CAF: 2
OFC: 0.5

This is based on the following idea:

When teams reach the actual Cup they compete to make it out of the groups. Typically this sees a lot of matching sides from different confederations against each other. On average, this should reflect confederation strength. So, you can take the number a confederation puts into the round of 16 (on average) multiply by 2 and get how many spots they should have. That yields the above with one correction - OFC would be at 0, so I gave them the minimum of 0.5 and took away 0.5 from CONCACAF which I felt was most overrepresented under this.

Basically, my idea is that for each team which makes it out of the group a second team deserves to take part. This should generally work fine.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

No. What needs to be done is much more intercontinental play-offs. Anyway, I see no evidence that, for example, Senegal or Iran is much worse than Greece or Austria.

So...
Hosts = 1
UEFA = 9 Automatically, 7 play-offs
CONMEBOL = 4 Automatically, 3 play-offs
CONCACAF = 2 Automatically, 3 play-offs
CAF = 3 Automatically, 5 play-offs
AFC = 2 Automatically, 3 play-offs
OFC = 1 play-offs

Though in practice CONEMBOL and CONCACAF should merge as too the AFC and OFC

[Peeperkorn]

2014 FIFA World Cup qualification chances (13 September 2013)

http://www.football-rankings.info/2013/09/2014-fifa-world-cup-qualification_13.html


100% - Colombia
99.98% - Spain
99.72% - Switzerland
99.66% - Germany
98.87% - Belgium
98.33% - Chile
92.58% - Uruguay
91.73% - Ecuador
86.94% - Honduras
86.84% - England
85.28% - Russia
82.35% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
80.31% - Portugal
77.73% - Côte d'Ivoire
71.21% - Greece
69.12% - Nigeria
66.02% - Ghana
64.93% - Croatia
55.29% - Ukraine
53.96% - Algeria
53.55% - Egypt
53.42% - Sweden
53.28% - France
46.75% - Tunisia
43.75% - Mexico
38.06% - Burkina Faso
37.65% - Senegal
37.27% - Cameroon
35.48% - New Zealand
33.75% - Panama
19.89% - Ethiopia
16.51% - Jordan
15.55% - Romania
9.24% - Bulgaria
7.97% - Denmark
7.89% - Hungary
6.22% - Montenegro
5.66% - Iceland
4.41% - Turkey
4.17% - Austria
3.8% - Norway
2.53% - Slovenia
0.9% - Poland
0.85% - Venezuela
0.35% - Czech Republic
0.1% - Albania
0.08% - Jamaica
0.05% - Israel
0.02% - Armenia

Most improved since the 6 September simulations:

49.55% - Uruguay
44.79% - Honduras
22.72% - Sweden
22.05% - Burkina Faso
14.22% - Senegal
10.27% - Cameroon
9.66% - Ethiopia
9.27% - Greece
8.33% - Belgium
7.94% - Jordan


Most declined:

-42.58% - Mexico
-21.27% - Venezuela
-19.46% - Peru
-18.46% - Uzbekistan
-15.39% - South Africa
-14.24% - Czech Republic
-12.07% - Uganda
-11.72% - Norway
-10.9% - Libya
-10.71% - Republic of Ireland

[Gustaf]

No. What needs to be done is much more intercontinental play-offs. Anyway, I see no evidence that, for example, Senegal or Iran is much worse than Greece or Austria.

So...
Hosts = 1
UEFA = 9 Automatically, 7 play-offs
CONMEBOL = 4 Automatically, 3 play-offs
CONCACAF = 2 Automatically, 3 play-offs
CAF = 3 Automatically, 5 play-offs
AFC = 2 Automatically, 3 play-offs
OFC = 1 play-offs

Though in practice CONEMBOL and CONCACAF should merge as too the AFC and OFC

That's not necessarily the point. I think the key point is more that  teams like say Croatia and the Czech Republic, if you go back a few years, would have to struggle hard and miss every once in a while to qualify while teams that are no better and probably worse like US or Japan would qualify by default every time. To me that's the main unfairness. Look at the link below (even though the numbers can be argued endlessly of course). Austria is given a 4% chance of qualifying, Iran already did. If they are roughly equal, how is that fair?

I mean, Holland missed the 2002 World Cup. A team that good would never miss in the competition in Asia, Africa or North America.

[Tender Branson]

No. What needs to be done is much more intercontinental play-offs. Anyway, I see no evidence that, for example, Senegal or Iran is much worse than Greece or Austria.

So...
Hosts = 1
UEFA = 9 Automatically, 7 play-offs
CONMEBOL = 4 Automatically, 3 play-offs
CONCACAF = 2 Automatically, 3 play-offs
CAF = 3 Automatically, 5 play-offs
AFC = 2 Automatically, 3 play-offs
OFC = 1 play-offs

Though in practice CONEMBOL and CONCACAF should merge as too the AFC and OFC

That's not necessarily the point. I think the key point is more that  teams like say Croatia and the Czech Republic, if you go back a few years, would have to struggle hard and miss every once in a while to qualify while teams that are no better and probably worse like US or Japan would qualify by default every time. To me that's the main unfairness. Look at the link below (even though the numbers can be argued endlessly of course). Austria is given a 4% chance of qualifying, Iran already did. If they are roughly equal, how is that fair?

I mean, Holland missed the 2002 World Cup. A team that good would never miss in the competition in Asia, Africa or North America.

Because you can usually never count on the Austrian football team to win an important game when it matters ...

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Thanks, FIFA!

[Keystone Phil]

Giuseppe Rossi returns to the Azzurri for our next two qualifiers (even though we already qualified)!

[Tender Branson]

Tomorrow is the most important game: Sweden vs. Austria

Sweden is of course favoured because they play at home and their home performance is solid, while our away performance sucks.

But we "only" need a tie to have a realistic chance for the playoffs.

My prediction: 3:1 for Sweden, because Austria always sucks when it matters ...

[Tender Branson]

Hahaha, the Swedish:



"På fredag dör er VM-dröm."

[Keystone Phil]

Tomorrow will be fun. A lot of great matches and I get to actually relax during Italy's match since we're already qualified (but I'm obviously still going to follow it). Also, Buffon becomes Italy's most capped player tomorrow!