Miles' Election Map Thread

[Miles]

These are the first in a series of maps I did the other day looking at PVI by county. Instead of using the national vote as a starting point, I calculated the PVI of each county compared to the state result. And, since this is PVI, I used data from 2012 as well as 2008.

Here's the Presidential PVIs per county:



The Presidential vote between 2008 and 2012 was 50.4/49.6 Republican.

Obama's best county was Durham, which was D+27. After that, Hertford and Orange were tied at D+22.

Yadkin was the most Republican at the Presidential level, R+24. Randolph, Avery and Mitchell were all R+23.

Obama lost Lenoir County both times but it still had a slightly D PVI.

These are the PVIs for non-Presidential statewide races (this would be compatible to the D/R Averages in DRA). For this, I crunched 18 races between 2008 and 2012: Gov., LG, Auditor, Ag. Commissioner, Insurance Commissioner, Labor Commissioner, SoS, Superintendent of Public Instruction and Treasurer. For the sake of symmetry, I excluded AG in 2008.



Overall, the average vote was 51.6/48.4 in favor of Democrats.

I guess the first thing I noticed is that Democratic strength is less intense, but more dispersed.

As I expected, the county that changed the most between the two maps was Columbus. There was a 29-point gap between the state average, 60.5/39.5 Democratic, and Obama's performance, he lost it 54/46 both times. This made its Presidential PVI R+4 but for state races, it was D+9.

Obama improved the most in Mecklenburg County; D+12 Presidentially but only D+8 on average. In Durham, Wake and Orange he also performed at least 3 points better than the average.

In GIF form:



'Should be pretty easy to tell which is which.


 

[JacobNC]

I was looking at some old NC political maps today ('60s, '70s, '80s).  Here are some interesting things I discovered about NC politics:

The most shocking thing I found was Durham County voting for Jesse Helms in 1978.

Jesse Helms did very well in eastern NC.  He significantly overperformed Mitt Romney's performance in eastern NC (except on the coast).  That sort of goes against conventional wisdom that rural, eastern NC is trending Republican.

Terry Sanford's gubernatorial and senate elections best exemplify the eastern vs. western NC split in politics.

I can't find any election since 1960 in which Orange or Northampton Counties voted Republican.  They even voted for George McGovern in 1972.  Likewise, I can't find any election in which Avery or Mitchell Counties voted Democrat.

[Miles]

The most shocking thing I found was Durham County voting for Jesse Helms in 1978.

No kidding.

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Yeah. There were a few outliers though, as Sanford won Union County in 1986, which would be unheard of today.

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For Orange, you have to go back to 1928!

I don't think Avery/Mitchell have ever voted Democratic. Those two belong over the boarder in eastern TN.

One county that always stuck out at me was Sampson. Its swingy today in statewide races, but going back in Presidential elections from the 1920's until the 1950's it was always considerably less D than the rest of eastern NC.

[Miles]

The Parishes of LA

2008- 2012 PVIs



Since I didn't have a 'state average' to compare this to, I did calculations for the 2000-2004 PVIs.



Back then, the parish the state's two-party vote was 55.6/44.4 R and went up to 59/41 in 2008/2012.

'Hard to believe that Calcasieu and Allen parish were slightly Democratic when compared to the rest of the state. Acadiana was much 'swingier' back then.

The first map is more polarized, as you would expect. Orleans Parish, for instance, went from D+34 to D+40.

[Miles]

The GIF for LA:

[Miles]

Ah! I forgot to post data for LA. Oh well, I'll have that out soon.

I'd like to do the SC-01 election next

[Mr.Phips]

The most shocking thing I found was Durham County voting for Jesse Helms in 1978.

No kidding.

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Yeah. There were a few outliers though, as Sanford won Union County in 1986, which would be unheard of today.

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For Orange, you have to go back to 1928!

I don't think Avery/Mitchell have ever voted Democratic. Those two belong over the boarder in eastern TN.

One county that always stuck out at me was Sampson. Its swingy today in statewide races, but going back in Presidential elections from the 1920's until the 1950's it was always considerably less D than the rest of eastern NC.

Sanford actually narrowly lost Union in 1986 and also Johnston, while solidly losing Mecklenberg.  Crazy. 

[old timey villain]

Awesome NC maps.

It always baffles me how a lot of the mountain counties are so moderate while the Georgia mountain counties just a few miles south are so very Republican.

[Miles]

Awesome NC maps.

It always baffles me how a lot of the mountain counties are so moderate while the Georgia mountain counties just a few miles south are so very Republican.

Yeah, the three mountain counties at the very tip of NC (Cherokee, Clay, Graham) are all pretty Republican by state standards (65%-ish R average) but even they're not as R as those in northern GA. The big exceptions, as I've said are Avery and Mitchell; they were both about 75% Romney and belong in eastern TN.

[minionofmidas]

There is, of course, a mountain in the way.

[JacobNC]

Swain County has a significant Native American population and Jackson County has Western Carolina University, as well as some Native Americans, which would explain those counties being so moderate.  Haywood County has the Great Smoky Mountains National Park which is run by the federal government, and I assume brings a lot of jobs to the area.  Madison and Yancey Counties, I have no idea... I actually have relatives in Yancey County and they're all Democrats but I don't know why.  It probably dates back to the civil war.

North Georgia was solidly Democratic locally until the 1990s, when everyone changed parties.  People like Zell Miller and Nathan Deal (former Dem) are from that area.  Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama used to be bases for conservative Democrats in those states.  It's not like Eastern Tenn. or southeastern Ky. which has been Republican forever.

[Mr.Phips]

Swain County has a significant Native American population and Jackson County has Western Carolina University, as well as some Native Americans, which would explain those counties being so moderate.  Haywood County has the Great Smoky Mountains National Park which is run by the federal government, and I assume brings a lot of jobs to the area.  Madison and Yancey Counties, I have no idea... I actually have relatives in Yancey County and they're all Democrats but I don't know why.  It probably dates back to the civil war.

North Georgia was solidly Democratic locally until the 1990s, when everyone changed parties.  People like Zell Miller and Nathan Deal (former Dem) are from that area.  Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama used to be bases for conservative Democrats in those states.  It's not like Eastern Tenn. or southeastern Ky. which has been Republican forever.

Its hard to believe that North Georgia remained Democratic even locally past the late 1960's.  There is almost no black population there like there is in Northern Mississippi and Northern Alabama. 

[Sol]

My understanding is that Democratic strength in many Western NC counties comes from the TVA, although I'm not sure. There's also a significant population of hippie types in a lot of those mountain areas.

[JacobNC]

^Only in Asheville and Boone, and to a very small extent, Brevard and Tryon.  Most mountain counties gave Amendment One (gay marriage ban) more than 70% of the vote.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

^Only in Asheville and Boone, and to a very small extent, Brevard and Tryon.  Most mountain counties gave Amendment One (gay marriage ban) more than 70% of the vote.

There are some hippie types in Henderson County as well.  Nice little hemp enthusiast store on main street Hendersonville, right next to the arthouse cinema and the fairy sculpture shop.

[Miles]

Going along with my swing map, here is the trend map for the south from 2004 to 2012.



The swing from Kerry 2004 to Obama 2012 was 6.3 points, so the swing map was adjusted to reflect that.

[Miles]

The swing from 2004 to 2012 for the entire country:

[Miles]

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Wasn't Boucher favored, even just before the election or something?

[Miles]

Yeah, Nate Silver even had Boucher winning.

[Miles]

This is the voter turnout shift from 2008 to 2012. Yellow counties cast more votes in 2012 than 2008 while turnout fell in the purple counties.

[JacobNC]

Some people theorized the leftward shift in many southern counties was due to fewer evangelicals turning out for Romney, but it appears as though there was actually a rise in black turnout.  Surprising.

Miles, do you know which states had the largest increases and dropoffs in turnout?

[Miles]

Miles, do you know which states had the largest increases and dropoffs in turnout?

On the state level, Dave Wasserman kept a spreadsheet of raw turnout, which was helpful; I just took that idea and applied it to the counties.

Biggest increases:

DC: +10.5%
CO: +7.0%
UT: +6.8%
NV: +4.9%
NC: +4.5%

Steepest drops:

OK: -8.7%
VT: -7.9%
NY: -7.5%
KS: -6.1%
WV: -6.0%

My favorite is NH, which cast two more votes in 2012 than 2008.

I was surprised that parts of central Appalachia cast more votes in 2012; I just thought lots of Democrats that didn't like Obama stayed home.

Also, the increase in western ND makes Heitkamp's win even more impressive.

[Sol]

I was surprised that parts of central Appalachia cast more votes in 2012; I just thought lots of Democrats that didn't like Obama stayed home.

I suppose the most definite conclusion that can be taken out of the 2012 election is that the Democratic Party's traditional manifestation in Appalachia is as dead as a doornail. I suspect that Elliott County will fall by 2016/2020, and the long death will be complete. KY and WV should have republican state legislatures within the the next 10 years or so, if not sooner.

[Miles]

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