CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama up 7

[5280]

I don't believe any of the crap that comes from PPP anymore.

CO is minor heavy in Adams, Denver, and parts of Arapahoe county. Check out some of the older neighborhoods and see for yourself (pre 1970s homes).

Colorado has been drifting D. The Romney campaign must go to heroic efforts to win Colorado... OR win some state that has been assumed stalwart D but has been drifting R and is nearly ripe for the picking. Just look at the 2010 election, which should have been a big win for Republicans in Colorado.

Rasmussen is right and has the state as a virtual tie, PPP has the state on the fringe of contention, or else Colorado is weak D.

It is safe to say that Colorado is one state that went for Dubya reliably but has turned on any legacy of his policies. Such happens the other way, too -- think of Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia, the sorts of states that used to be reliably D in all but R landslides but that went R about twelve years ago as the political culture has changed.  

Mitt Romney can win Colorado, but for such to happen he must force a nationwide shift in voting in his favor or President Obama must endure some political calamity that nobody can foresee. Romney may be consolidating the vote that went for Gingrich, Perry, or Santorum in the primaries, but that will not be enough with which to win in November. He must basically take back the demographic of the old Rockefeller Republicans who are well-educated, liberal on social values, center-leaning on economics, and hostile to crime. Reagan and Bush won those in the 1980s... and Romney needs them back fast.

He's gonna have to try harder for the white vote in Denver county or get more moderates onboard that are wishy-washy.

[backtored]

I don't believe any of the crap that comes from PPP anymore.

CO is minor heavy in Adams, Denver, and parts of Arapahoe county. Check out some of the older neighborhoods and see for yourself (pre 1970s homes).

Colorado has been drifting D. The Romney campaign must go to heroic efforts to win Colorado... OR win some state that has been assumed stalwart D but has been drifting R and is nearly ripe for the picking. Just look at the 2010 election, which should have been a big win for Republicans in Colorado.

Rasmussen is right and has the state as a virtual tie, PPP has the state on the fringe of contention, or else Colorado is weak D.

It is safe to say that Colorado is one state that went for Dubya reliably but has turned on any legacy of his policies. Such happens the other way, too -- think of Arkansas, Tennessee, and West Virginia, the sorts of states that used to be reliably D in all but R landslides but that went R about twelve years ago as the political culture has changed.  

Mitt Romney can win Colorado, but for such to happen he must force a nationwide shift in voting in his favor or President Obama must endure some political calamity that nobody can foresee. Romney may be consolidating the vote that went for Gingrich, Perry, or Santorum in the primaries, but that will not be enough with which to win in November. He must basically take back the demographic of the old Rockefeller Republicans who are well-educated, liberal on social values, center-leaning on economics, and hostile to crime. Reagan and Bush won those in the 1980s... and Romney needs them back fast.

Much of that is just not true.  A state that Gallup places at 18th in terms of Republican self-idenitification, and a sizable +5 active registration advantage, does not at all indicate a drift left.  The GOP had its nadir in Colorado in '06, but it's actually been gaining considerably since then.  Results were somewhat split in '08, more GOP-leaning in '10, and '12 could actually be a 2002-esque year for Republicans in Colorado, who have finally, finally, finally gotten back on the horse after the surprises in '04 and '06.  The mainstream media/Team Obama narrative that Colorado is inevitably drifting left isn't really borne out by the facts.

[pbrower2a]

Colorado seems to me like it would be a better state for Romney than for most other Republican candidates.

It is, and most of the polling confirms that.  I could go down to the local Baskin Robbins and get a better sample than PPP.

But not if he becomes indistinguishable from other Republicans like Gingrich, Perry, or Santorum by adopting their stances. Ideas and positions matter.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

We like to think they do.

What matters is what the media covers. And that narrative will be decided by real polls and fake polls like this one.

[DrScholl]

The approvals again tell the story

Obama: 49-48
Romney 40-52

And, regardless of what some want to say about this particular polls, there haven't been any recent ones showing Romney with any sort of a lead at all and Colorado was solid Republican not long ago.

Romney is doing better than the other Republican candidates would have, it's just not enough to produce the sort of lead that Republicans want.

[krazen1211]

party id sample: D +4

who did you vote in 2008 ? obama +10 (he won + 9)

Junk poll...

Not necessarily a junk poll.
Sample: D+4
2008 Coloroado voters: R+1
BUT...
2010 Colorado voters: D+5
I know it seems odd but the 2010 voters in Colorado were more democratic than the 2008 voters, which from what I understand is pretty much the exact opposite of what happened in every other state in 2010.

Based on...exit polls.

We actually know Colorado's voter registration.

But this is PPP, so, whatever.

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Hispanic shift makes sense after Obama's deportation moratorium.

[Sbane]

Guys Obama is winning the white vote in this poll so a discussion on minority voting is not too relevant. Unless things have changed drastically since 2008, Colorado is still a state with an above average white electorate.

The partisan ID is troubling though. I would guess Obama only leads by 2-3 points. Colorado will be very close to the national average. Some people here are way too confident about winning it.

[5280]

Guys Obama is winning the white vote in this poll so a discussion on minority voting is not too relevant. Unless things have changed drastically since 2008, Colorado is still a state with an above average white electorate.

The partisan ID is troubling though. I would guess Obama only leads by 2-3 points. Colorado will be very close to the national average. Some people here are way too confident about winning it.

This doesn't explain WHICH AREAS of Colorado Obama is winning the white vote.  We want specifics, like what cities or counties.  Clearly, there are some areas in CO that are liberal or conservative.

[Adam Griffin]

Guys Obama is winning the white vote in this poll so a discussion on minority voting is not too relevant. Unless things have changed drastically since 2008, Colorado is still a state with an above average white electorate.

The partisan ID is troubling though. I would guess Obama only leads by 2-3 points. Colorado will be very close to the national average. Some people here are way too confident about winning it.

This doesn't explain WHICH AREAS of Colorado Obama is winning the white vote.  We want specifics, like what cities or counties.  Clearly, there are some areas in CO that are liberal or conservative.

Very few No polls are going to break down county-by-county white preference, although I'm sure you could pay to have such a poll done. Maybe some crosstabs will include regions of the state and the Denver metro area, but I wouldn't expect much else.

[MorningInAmerica]

party id sample: D +4

who did you vote in 2008 ? obama +10 (he won + 9)

Junk poll...

Not necessarily a junk poll.
Sample: D+4
2008 Coloroado voters: R+1
BUT...
2010 Colorado voters: D+5
I know it seems odd but the 2010 voters in Colorado were more democratic than the 2008 voters, which from what I understand is pretty much the exact opposite of what happened in every other state in 2010.

Where are those numbers from?  Republicans have an active registration advantage of +5 in Colorado.

Those numbers are from exit polls. For some strange reason, 2010 saw greater Democratic turnout in Colorado than 2008. I could be wrong, but not sure there's another state that the same is true for.

[You kip if you want to...]

party id sample: D +4

who did you vote in 2008 ? obama +10 (he won + 9)

Junk poll...

Not necessarily a junk poll.
Sample: D+4
2008 Coloroado voters: R+1
BUT...
2010 Colorado voters: D+5
I know it seems odd but the 2010 voters in Colorado were more democratic than the 2008 voters, which from what I understand is pretty much the exact opposite of what happened in every other state in 2010.

Where are those numbers from?  Republicans have an active registration advantage of +5 in Colorado.

Those numbers are from exit polls. For some strange reason, 2010 saw greater Democratic turnout in Colorado than 2008. I could be wrong, but not sure there's another state that the same is true for.

Could the run from Tancredo for governor have driven Republicans to identify as independent?

[Sbane]

Guys Obama is winning the white vote in this poll so a discussion on minority voting is not too relevant. Unless things have changed drastically since 2008, Colorado is still a state with an above average white electorate.

The partisan ID is troubling though. I would guess Obama only leads by 2-3 points. Colorado will be very close to the national average. Some people here are way too confident about winning it.

This doesn't explain WHICH AREAS of Colorado Obama is winning the white vote.  We want specifics, like what cities or counties.  Clearly, there are some areas in CO that are liberal or conservative.

I could probably tell you that very easily....Obama is winning the white vote in Denver, Boulder and ski towns. He is losing it in the plains, Colorado Springs, Weld and Douglas County. And the white vote in Larimer, Jefferson, Arapahoe and Adams decide the state.

[5280]

Guys Obama is winning the white vote in this poll so a discussion on minority voting is not too relevant. Unless things have changed drastically since 2008, Colorado is still a state with an above average white electorate.

The partisan ID is troubling though. I would guess Obama only leads by 2-3 points. Colorado will be very close to the national average. Some people here are way too confident about winning it.

This doesn't explain WHICH AREAS of Colorado Obama is winning the white vote.  We want specifics, like what cities or counties.  Clearly, there are some areas in CO that are liberal or conservative.

I could probably tell you that very easily....Obama is winning the white vote in Denver, Boulder and ski towns. He is losing it in the plains, Colorado Springs, Weld and Douglas County. And the white vote in Larimer, Jefferson, Arapahoe and Adams decide the state.

Denver and Boulder are elitest pockets of liberalism.  I happen to live in Adams county, it has a slight Democrat leaning, Jefferson county is Republican leaning.  What you say about the other counties are true.  The surrounding counties will decide which way the state votes in November.

[MorningInAmerica]

party id sample: D +4

who did you vote in 2008 ? obama +10 (he won + 9)

Junk poll...

Not necessarily a junk poll.
Sample: D+4
2008 Coloroado voters: R+1
BUT...
2010 Colorado voters: D+5
I know it seems odd but the 2010 voters in Colorado were more democratic than the 2008 voters, which from what I understand is pretty much the exact opposite of what happened in every other state in 2010.

Where are those numbers from?  Republicans have an active registration advantage of +5 in Colorado.

Those numbers are from exit polls. For some strange reason, 2010 saw greater Democratic turnout in Colorado than 2008. I could be wrong, but not sure there's another state that the same is true for.

Could the run from Tancredo for governor have driven Republicans to identify as independent?

That's probably the best explanation I've heard for why D turnout was higher in 2010 than 2008.

[Devils30]

The state has been drifting away from the GOP since 1996. Hispanic population is part but the state has a large white, educated demographic that Obama has held onto much better.

2000: Had a Democratic trend even with Nader siphoning off a large percentage of Gore votes (over 5%)
2004: Bush won but margin of victory considerably thinner even as he improved nationwide. Dems also won open senate seat in a GOP friendly year.
2006: Dems win everything, easily take the open 7th district
2008: Obama posts a larger victory than his nationwide average, Dems easily take the other senate seat.
2010: Despite a GOP landslide the wave is considerably smaller. Dems hold senate seat, governorship, state senate and even the state house is a draw. Both of the GOP house pickups (3rd, 4th) come in districts mccain won and the 4th was always a solidly red seat and the 3rd was quite close.

2012 outlook: Of course Romney COULD win but its PVI should be D+1-2, meaning Romney will only win as icing on the cake.

[5280]

The state has been drifting away from the GOP since 1996. Hispanic population is part but the state has a large white, educated demographic that Obama has held onto much better.

2000: Had a Democratic trend even with Nader siphoning off a large percentage of Gore votes (over 5%)
2004: Bush won but margin of victory considerably thinner even as he improved nationwide. Dems also won open senate seat in a GOP friendly year.
2006: Dems win everything, easily take the open 7th district
2008: Obama posts a larger victory than his nationwide average, Dems easily take the other senate seat.
2010: Despite a GOP landslide the wave is considerably smaller. Dems hold senate seat, governorship, state senate and even the state house is a draw. Both of the GOP house pickups (3rd, 4th) come in districts mccain won and the 4th was always a solidly red seat and the 3rd was quite close.

2012 outlook: Of course Romney COULD win but its PVI should be D+1-2, meaning Romney will only win as icing on the cake.

Regardless what educated people think of Obama, his record so far sucks. It's going to take a lot of persuasion for people to vote Obama a 2nd term, even some Democrats are not a fan of his policies and some may even stay home this election.

[pbrower2a]

The other side of the coin is that President Obama could pick up some voters who voted for John McCain because they were scared of a black man doing things that he now shows no signs of doing. Such voters went for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in the 1990s. That could not be enough to win any states other than Arizona and Missouri. Such is itself a stretch.
 

[Brittain33]

Based on...exit polls.

We actually know Colorado's voter registration.

But this is PPP, so, whatever.

How does that logic work with self-ID in places like Louisiana and Kentucky?

[krazen1211]

Based on...exit polls.

We actually know Colorado's voter registration.

But this is PPP, so, whatever.

How does that logic work with self-ID in places like Louisiana and Kentucky?

Certainly the logic is not valid in states where the voters registered to a political party do not vote in a partisan manner for that party. But in a partisan state it is better to have more voters.

[hopper]

The state has been drifting away from the GOP since 1996. Hispanic population is part but the state has a large white, educated demographic that Obama has held onto much better.

2000: Had a Democratic trend even with Nader siphoning off a large percentage of Gore votes (over 5%)
2004: Bush won but margin of victory considerably thinner even as he improved nationwide. Dems also won open senate seat in a GOP friendly year.
2006: Dems win everything, easily take the open 7th district
2008: Obama posts a larger victory than his nationwide average, Dems easily take the other senate seat.
2010: Despite a GOP landslide the wave is considerably smaller. Dems hold senate seat, governorship, state senate and even the state house is a draw. Both of the GOP house pickups (3rd, 4th) come in districts mccain won and the 4th was always a solidly red seat and the 3rd was quite close.

2012 outlook: Of course Romney COULD win but its PVI should be D+1-2, meaning Romney will only win as icing on the cake.

2006 and 2008 were terrible election years for the GOP though. I'll give you the 2004 and 2010 results though for the D's since 2004 was sort of a nuetral year(all of the house seats the GOP picked up were in Texas after the re-redistricting there.) 2010 was of course a big Republican year as you said.

The GOP can't afford to give CO up the way they did CA especially if CO keeps on adding a new  house seat once every decade. CO looks like it is becoming Massacusetts politically in my opinion.

I agree the new PVI after the 2012 Elections will be D+1 or D+2. Nate Silver has Obama up 51-49% right now in CO I think right now, Alot closer than I thought it was gonna be.

[5280]

If the GOP gives up CO indefinitely, they have better chances in other states. Its pointless to try hard and win this state anymore.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

If the GOP gives up CO indefinitely, they have better chances in other states. Its pointless to try hard and win this state anymore.

The problem, though, is that if they only focus on FL/OH/VA/NC, they won't have enough EVs to reach 270. They need CO, or NV or NH or IA.

[nkpatel1279]

If the GOP gives up CO indefinitely, they have better chances in other states. Its pointless to try hard and win this state anymore.

The problem, though, is that if they only focus on FL/OH/VA/NC, they won't have enough EVs to reach 270. They need CO, or NV or NH or IA.

Looking at the Hispanic Southwest region.(AZ-11,CO-9,NV-6,and NM-5). NM-5 is Likely/Safe Democratic, NV-6 is Lean/Likely Democratic, CO-9 is Tossup/Lean Democratic. and AZ-11 is Lean Republican/Tossup. AZ-11 is the Southwest State Republicans will hold onto during the next 2 Presidential Elections.  Republicans have to win the McCain States plus IN-11,NC-15,VA-13,FL-29,and OH-18 plus NH-4 and IA-6= to get to 270 plus ev.
If Republicans lose AZ-11 - they are screwed. otherwise they will have to make inroads in WI-10.

[Kevin]

The other side of the coin is that President Obama could pick up some voters who voted for John McCain because they were scared of a black man doing things that he now shows no signs of doing. Such voters went for Carter in 1976 and Clinton in the 1990s. That could not be enough to win any states other than Arizona and Missouri. Such is itself a stretch.
 

LOOOOL! Did you really write that??

No one who didn't vote for Barack Obama in 2008 is more likely to vote for him in 2012!

No kidding that's one hell of a stretch!