1992-? Mirror Image of 1952-1980

[BritishDixie]

If you think about, the 1952-1980 Era is almost an exact mirror image, Presidency wise of 1992- era, at least so far. Is that a hint of things to come....

Think about it...

1952: R Victory

[BritishDixie]

I'm not suggesting that it's totally alike, but there are interesting paralells.

"Hispanics will vote like almost every other new immigrant group. They will vote D for the next decade or two while they still experience discrimination and poverty, but as they continue to assimilate and move up the economic and social ladder, they'll begin to split their vote between the parties as the sense of Hispanic solidarity dissipates.

Italians and Irish used to be in the bag for Democrats, but now I'd guess they split evenly between the parties. But of course, there really aren't any recent polls out that prove or disprove my theory- because no one really cares about the Irish or Italian vote anymore, a sign of their total assimilation into the general white population. Such will happen with most Hispanics"

Sadly this has not happened with blacks.

[BritishDixie]

So I presume that social issues seem to have taken on greater importance to the "creative class" than economic issues, otherwise I don't think 2012 would be the narrow race it is.

[BritishDixie]

I think it is too early to talk about this. If Obama loses in 2012, then this is going to look awfully premature. And in fact Democrats could be the ones stuck with high unemployment and low economic growth of a 1 term Obama presidency, if he ends up getting booted out.

You could be right, but I'm still expecting an Obama win. Americans rarely fire one political party after only one term in office, just like they rarely give the same party more than 2 terms in office- at least in the modern era.

The two exceptions are Jimmy Carter losing in 1980, although I argue that the entire Carter presidency was based on a fleeting backlash. GOP dominance on the White House was still in place, so it was hard for him to keep a winning coalition.

And then of course, George Bush beat Dukakis in 1988, but people forget that originally voters were ready for change and Dukakis was leading in the polls significantly. Dukakis and voters were sideswiped by one of the most unprecedented smear campaigns in modern history. So his presidency was kind of an aberration as well. To me, this explains why his approval ratings were so pitifully low, even amidst a mild recession that was beginning to subside by late 1992.

So yes, Obama could lose this year. But it will take something terrible, like a double dip recession or a massive scandal in his administration. And Romney will have to really start looking great to the voters. But barring all of these possibilities, I think things are set up for an Obama win, just like they were set up for a Bush win in 2004.

I think Romney is much maligned, he has done a lot of good.

But anyway, at the moment I would agree with your analysis. I think he and the Democrats almost have a lock on the Presidency. With solid support from the North-East and West Coast, plus Hawaii and Illinois I think the Republicans will have a hard time winning the Presidency.