Italy 2013: The official thread

[Tender Branson]

I just don't understand why they wouldn't have each town's/the national turnout percent at this point in 2008 already pumped in and then just update the current percent.

They are using the final 2008 turnout figures from each town, but the 2008 turnout changes as more towns are updated with different 2008 turnout data.

Of course, once that all of the 8.092 towns are in, even the 2008 turnout is unmoveable and final.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout is now running about 2.4% behind the 2008-values of the already counted towns.

About 80% of the towns have already reported their 19:00 figure.

78% (-2.5) total turnout now looks likely.

[Andrea]

I would predict 75% turnout at the end.

[Keystone Phil]

Basilicata (left wing stronghold) is down by 3.4%. Looks like Puglia will be down by about 2%. Naples still has a lot left to report but turnout is currently down by 5% there.

[Tender Branson]

I would predict 75% turnout at the end.

I predicted 77%.

[Keystone Phil]

I would predict 75% turnout at the end.

I predicted 77%.

I predicted 75%. 

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in the leftist strongholds (Toskana, Emilia-Romania, Marche) is surprisingly good and often up compared with 2008.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout in the Berlusconi areas, especially in the South and Milan suburbs, looks bad.

[Keystone Phil]

Turnout in the leftist strongholds (Toskana, Emilia-Romania, Marche) is surprisingly good and often up compared with 2008.

Marginally down in Tuscany. It's up in Emilia-Romagna and barely up in Marche though.

Turnout in the Berlusconi areas, especially in the South and Milan suburbs, looks bad.

In some southern areas, that's good for him and remember: the Milan Derby starts in an hour. Turnout in Milan might bounce tomorrow. 

[Tender Branson]

What exactly are the Grillo strongholds, based on recent regional or so elections ?

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, turnout especially in Napoli and surroundings and Sicily and Calabria (all Silvio strongholds) are worrying for the bunga-bunga-dude. Hopefully he gets crushed tomorrow.

[Keystone Phil]

Silvio's coalition has been struggling in Campania and I think low turnout in the city itself is actually good for him. Sicily isn't looking too bad especially when you consider the Catania flooding. As for Calabria, it went for Berlusconi in 2001 and 2008 but isn't it traditionally favorable to the left?

[palandio]

In the 2010 regional elections Grillo contested five regions.
His best showing in 2010 was in Emilia-Romagna.
But in the Susa Valley (Province of Torino, Piemonte) there where even comunes where he reached almost 30% (in 2010).
In 2012 the city of Parma (Emilia) elected a M5S candidate as mayor.
His home town is Genoa where M5S had a relatively strong result, too.
Sicily was surprisingly good for him, I guess his strongest regional election result so far.

It's difficult to say where his strongholds really are because in many regions and comunes this election will be the first election contested by Grillo. I even have the suspect that much of the protest vote in Veneto is going from Lega and separatists to Grillo.

[Tender Branson]

In the 2010 regional elections Grillo contested five regions.
His best showing in 2010 was in Emilia-Romagna.
But in the Susa Valley (Province of Torino, Piemonte) there where even comunes where he reached almost 30% (in 2010).
In 2012 the city of Parma (Emilia) elected a M5S candidate as mayor.
His home town is Genoa where M5S had a relatively strong result, too.
Sicily was surprisingly good for him, I guess his strongest regional election result so far.

It's difficult to say where his strongholds really are because in many regions and comunes this election will be the first election contested by Grillo. I even have the suspect that much of the protest vote in Veneto is going from Lega and separatists to Grillo.

Considering this, M5S might actually get close to 25% tomorrow. If he rises, who do you think is he hurting more ? The IBC or the Silvio coalition ? It's very hard to find crosstabs of Italian polls for example to see how the young or olds vote etc.

[RogueBeaver]

Seems to me like he's hurting Berlusconi. I remember SB's numbers going up when Grillo's went down a few weeks ago. One thing we know for sure: SB is trolling hard for the low and ultra-low info segment of the electorate with his unicorn-that-kinda-nukes-the-economy "policies."

[Keystone Phil]

Grillo isn't getting 25% or even close to second place, guys. Sure, he saw his numbers really spike but I think a lot of this is media hype.

[palandio]

Two or three years ago Grillo got most of his support from former center-left voters (especially radical left) and historical abstentionists. These still remain in his base. But much of the growth in the last year has come from former Lega and PdL voters.
The PD on the other hand has consolidated its voter base. (The slight PD decline of the last two months is more a product of Berlusconi and Grillo mobilizing voters that otherwise would have stayed at home.)

Digging further into the turnout dates I would say that they look not so good for Lega, PdL and SVP, good for Grillo and relatively good for the PD. Veneto though doesn't fit into the narrative of Lega and PdL voters staying home.

Take for example the province of Genova:
Turnout at 19:00 went from 48.81% in 2008 to 50.16% today.
from 48.87% to 50.49% in left-wing Genova city.
from 52.39% to 57.01% in left-leaning Arenzano.
from 48.61% to 48.24% in right-wing Chiavari (this is relatively strong).
from 49.61% to 46.78% in right-wing Rapallo.
from 49.92% to 47.21% in right-wing S.Margherita.
from 51.61% to 50.63% in left-wing Sestri Levante (this is relatively weak).
These are the biggest comunes.
Then there are cases like left-wing stronghold S.Olcese in the Genova hinterland where turnout went from 45.68% to 55.24%.

[Andrea]

Regional elections turnout

Lombardy 51.23%
Lazio 44.37%
Molise 32.96%

it seems lots of people are refusing to take up the regional ballot paper in Molise. In Lombardy and Lazio the figures are also a bit down but not so much compared to the House turnout.

[Franknburger]

Checked out some of the polls myself. Italy does not really seem to have invented socio-economic background analysis - its all horse-race top numbers.

Nevertheless, as the Senate minimum voting age is 25, it might be possible to infere on the 18-25 vote by comparing Camera and Senate polling (assuming the pollsters are filtering out non-eligible respondents for their Senate results).

The table below lists the Camera minus Senate differences per coalition for the Feb. 8 Ipsos poll (the only one I have found so far that covers both chambers nationally):

Bersani              -0.7           
Berlusconi          -0.6       
Grillo                 +0.4           
Monti                 +1.3           
Ingroia              +0.1 
others                -0,5       

This indicates that both Bersani and Berlusconi are having problems with the youth vote, which is instead being absorbed by Grillo and, surprisingly, Monti.

[palandio]

Turnout in the last three hours has been as low as you can possibly get.

I would be cautious about infering on the 18-25 vote based on the differences in one single poll. Assume that the poll had an effective sample size of 1000 respondents. Then for the Monti coalition the standard deviation is about 10 respondents. We are really getting into two handfuls of persons...
The next problem with your analysis is the "disjoint" vote where voters split their ticket, often for tactical reasons. (Immagine some left-wing voter in Lombardy that votes RC for the Chamber because he wants them to get in and believes Berlusconi's coalition won't win on the national level anyway; and SEL for the Senate because RC stands no chance to get over 8% and he doesn't want Lombardy to give its majority bonus to Berlusconi...)

[MaxQue]

You're overestimating the intelligence of the average voter.

[Franknburger]

I would be cautious about infering on the 18-25 vote based on the differences in one single poll. Assume that the poll had an effective sample size of 1000 respondents. Then for the Monti coalition the standard deviation is about 10 respondents. We are really getting into two handfuls of persons...

You are right, of course. Unfortunately, that single poll seems to be the only information that is available at all

The next problem with your analysis is the "disjoint" vote where voters split their ticket, often for tactical reasons. (Immagine some left-wing voter in Lombardy that votes RC for the Chamber because he wants them to get in and believes Berlusconi's coalition won't win on the national level anyway; and SEL for the Senate because RC stands no chance to get over 8% and he doesn't want Lombardy to give its majority bonus to Berlusconi...)

Such ticket splitting is extremely common in Germany, but I wasn't aware of its relevance for Italy.
How would other possible splits look, that could explain some of the differences in the IPSOS polls? Monti for the Chamber, Berlusconi (Lega) for Senate? Maybe, but does not sound convincing to me. Monti for the Chamber, Bersani for Senate (the centrist anti-Berlusconi vote), however, could make more sense, depending on the region.  But why would someone vote Grillo for the Chamber, and not for Senate?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hi guys!

So what's going on with turnout? According to the latest numbers (at 10PM) it's down to 55%, from 63% in 2008. At 7PM it was only down 3 points... How comes it dropped so massively in only 3 hours?

[Andrea]

Hi guys!

So what's going on with turnout? According to the latest numbers (at 10PM) it's down to 55%, from 63% in 2008. At 7PM it was only down 3 points... How comes it dropped so massively in only 3 hours?

Here (Milan) it's snowing. After 7 PM you probably still got people coming home from shopping centers, returing from the evening mass and stopping at polling stations...but I guess no-one went out just to vote after the dinner.

My 75% prediction is obviously wrong.

[Keystone Phil]

For the record, Milan and Inter tied 1-1.

Without people flipping the hell out, could that be a big reason why turnout in Lombardy is so low? The derby is a pretty big day long event so I'd imagine the numbers will go up tomorrow quite a bit compared to the rest of the country.