Italy 2013: The official thread

[Andrea]

There were also regional elections in Valle d'Aosta. They voted only on Sunday. So we already have the final results

Union Valdôtaine 33.47% (44.38% in 2008)
Stella Alpina 12.25% (11.39%)
Fédération Autonomiste 2.18% (6.17%)

Total Autonomist Coalition 47.9% (61.95%)

Union Valdotaine Progressiste  19.21%
Autonomie Liberté Participation Écologie 12.41% (12.49%)
PD 8.88% (9.31%)

Total Progressist Coalition 40.5% (27.4%)

5 Stelle 6.62%
 
PDL 4.11% (10.65%)

LeALI 0.86%

Seats:

Union Valdôtaine 13 + Stella Alpina 5 = 18
Union Valdotaine Progressiste 7 + Autonomie Liberté Participation Écologie 5 + PD 3 = 15

5 Stars 2

PdL 0

Turnout 73.03%

[Andrea]

First Rai projection for Rome

Marino 39.2% Alemanno 32.2% 5 Stars 12.8% Marchini 9.5%

[Keystone Phil]

Seven points isn't too bad for Alemanno, right?

Last time around, Alemanno had 41% to Rutelli's 46% in the first round. That race didn't include M5S or other major minor party candidates.

[Keystone Phil]

Second projection has Marino up to 42%.

[palandio]

It's not too good either.

In 2008 Rutelli's lists got 716,099 votes, Rutelli himself 761,126 votes, that's 45,027 more.
Alemanno's lists got 607,864 votes, Alemanno himself 677,350 votes, that's 69,486 more.
Keep an eye on these numbers this time. It's a sign for the candidate's personal strength. Rutelli was relatively weak.

In 2008 the strongest minor party candidate was Storace with 3.3%. Storace and Alemanno are ideologically and historically very similar ("Social Right", i.e. post-fascism), so I guess most of these 3.3% went to Alemanno in the run-off.

[Keystone Phil]

Alemanno obviously needs M5S voters, too, but aren't Marchini voters very likely to go his way? Wasn't he in Berlusconi's government?

I know this annoyed people when I suggested Calcio's role in the Parliamentary elections but could the Final/another Rome Derby have had a big impact on turnout?

[Andrea]

It looks like that Marino's lead is now estimated at 10% which is quite sizeable.

but aren't Marchini voters very likely to go his way? Wasn't he in Berlusconi's government?

No. But Marchini seems one of those people who is in touch with all high profile powerful men around (Caltagirone, Vatica, CL, Opus Dei, D'Alema, Gianni Letta)

[Keystone Phil]

I've been told by someone involved in one of the two major parties that M5S Rome will not back Marino and it's a wait and see situation with Marchini. Any Italians here able to comment on that?

[Andrea]

M5S don't usually endorse anyone as they are all bad. So I wouldn't expect them to back anyone in the run off.

Marchini says he will judget manifestos. There're 15 days left and so lots of time to study them according to him.

Projections now giving Marino a 12% lead.

Centre-left can hold 4-5 "capoluoghi" today. Everything else will go to run off, generally with CL ahead.

Ancona is a bit meah for PD. They are favourite in the run off but % is quite bad for them there.

[Hash]

Is it me, or do these results look pretty decent for the left?

[Andrea]

Counting (actually reporting) seems slower than usual, isn't it?

In some places PD is mediocre but PDL managed to do even worse and there has not been a 5 Stars breakthrough.

Centre-Left should have held Pisa, Massa, Imola, Sondrio and Vicenza without needing a run off. I am still puzzled on why PD actually held Vicenza in first place!

Good Centre-Left showing in Imperia (and without SEL). And they are ahead also in Treviso against Gentilini.

With PDL, I guess we should go back to the fact that PdL is Silvio and its success is Silvio's success. So they don't have a good school of boring but worthy local administrators. Hence, if there are no national issues to protest about (aka not the left ruling alone), it tends to implode at local level.

[Keystone Phil]

So they don't have a good school of boring but worthy local administrators. Hence, if there are no national issues to protest about (aka not the left ruling alone), it tends to implode at local level.

I was going to say, all of these poor local and regional election results for PdL ever since they spiked in the national polling seems strange. This makes perfect sense though.

[Keystone Phil]

By the way, Alemanno has said the Derby was a distraction. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

Is it me, or do these results look pretty decent for the left?

Looks so, yeah. It's undeserved, but I'll take what I have at this point.

[Andrea]

PD & Co also held Isernia with 50.54%. Good for them as the candidate was running way below his supporting party lists and so he could have had trouble in a run off where the focus is more on candidates rather than lists.

[Andrea]

Mayoral elections....I list just municipalities which are "capoluogo" (they give the name to the province, usually the largest town in the area).

Sondrio: CL 53.8% CR 20.91% Lega 7.87% Local list 6.69% 5S 5.94%
Vicenza: CL 53.47% CR 27.38% 5 Stars 6.5%
Massa: CL 54.17% Centre 18.79% 5 Stars 12.01% PDL 5.29%
Pisa: CL 53.48% CR 12.66% 5 Stars 10.49% Right 9.98% Left 8.08%
Isernia: CL 50.54% CR 42.95%

Run offs on June 9-10:
Brescia: CL 38.06% CR 38% (5 Stars 7.29%)
Lodi: CL 43.3% CR 34.48% (5 Stars 6.36%)
Treviso: CL 42.53% CR 34.82% (5Stars 6.91%)
Imperia: CL 46.83% CR 28.2% (Left 11.24% 5Stars 9.02%)
Siena: CL 39.54% CR 23.37% (Left 10.29% 5 Stars 8.56%)
Ancona: CL 37.65% CR 20.52% (5 Stars 15.02% Left 9.54%)
Roma: CL 42.6% CR 30.27% (5 Stars 12.43% Indy 9.48%)
Viterbo: CL 35.85% CR 25.17% (5 Stars 6.9%)
Avellino: CL 25.31% Centre 23.03% (CR 16.55% 5 Stars 5.7%)
Barletta: CL 43.68% CR 26.88% (Socialists 17.6 5 Stars 8.16%)
Iglesias: CL 49.52% CR 45.53%

Trevisto, Brescia, Imperia, Rome and Viterbo were held by CR, the rest by CL. In Sondrio, Vicenza, Brescia, Rome, Viterbo and Pisa the incumbent mayor was restanding (there's the 2 consecutive terms limit)

CL= centre-left CR= centre-right 5Stars= Grillo
The remaining % are local lists or fringe parties

[Keystone Phil]

Well, if you're Alemanno, you can at least be thankful your situation isn't as bad as the Mayor of Viterbo. Without a strong Indepdent running, I assume Monti's party or some local fringe party did very well. Guess most of those votes will flow the the center-right.

[Niemeyerite]

Well, if you're Alemanno, you can at least be thankful your situation isn't as bad as the Mayor of Viterbo. Without a strong Indepdent running, I assume Monti's party or some local fringe party did very well. Guess most of those votes will flow the the center-right.

Both of them will likely lose the run-off, so I don't think he should be thankful...

[Andrea]

In Sulmona there's a dead man in the run off.

Franceschini's girlfriend has been elected to Rome city council (she's 8th among PD councillors candidates. PD would get 9 seats even if Marino loses the run off.).
In both PD and Marino's list, a candidate called Marino got most preferences. I guess some got confused and wrote Marino thinking about the mayoral candidate...

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi is willing to run for the PD secretariat. We knew that already, but still .

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi is willing to run for the PD secretariat. We knew that already, but still .

Great news indeed! Listened to him recently, and really he's miles away from nearly every other politician (in rhetoric and attitude at least).

[RogueBeaver]

Renzi wants a birthright citizenship law.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Renzi wants a birthright citizenship law.

Good for him, though it obviously won't pass. Good way for PdL to court Grillist votes, too.

[Keystone Phil]

Happy Republic Day!

[Antonio the Sixth]

Happy Republic Day!