Reports: Romney giving up on Pennsylvania (?!)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

No, white Catholics are still more D than mainliners; they're like 51-48 McCain.

[Torie]

No, white Catholics are still more D than mainliners; they're like 51-48 McCain.

Adjusted for geography?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Not sure. However, the more Catholic areas seem to be more Democratic.

[BaldEagle1991]

Catholics are now a 50-50 voting group if you ask me, one group tends to take poverty and social injustice as a big issue, and the other takes pro-life and anti-gay rights as a top issue.

[You kip if you want to...]

Jesus Christ, how is he a nominee? This like when McCain pulled out of Michigan last time round, we all knew it was over then.

[BaldEagle1991]

Jesus Christ, how is he a nominee? This like when McCain pulled out of Michigan last time round, we all knew it was over then.

I'm surprised he even went that route. I can understand Romney's decision, him being born and raised there, but McCain? That's absurd. That's like Obama trying to campaign in Georgia.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Catholics are now a 50-50 voting group if you ask me, one group tends to take poverty and social injustice as a big issue, and the other takes pro-life and anti-gay rights as a top issue.

Catholics are lean Democratic overall due to Hispanics, while white Catholics are swing to tilt R.

[ShamDam]

So when will he give up on the country as a whole?

[Brittain33]

"Catholics" as a voting group has lost its meaning. Catholic diversity makes that group equivalent to Americans as a whole.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Pennsylvania's reputation as a genuine swing state in presidential elections is overrated. Romney actually is doing a smart thing by deciding to not waste resources there. He's doing a stupid thing by focusing on Michigan, though.

[AmericanNation]

"Catholics" as a voting group has lost its meaning. Catholic diversity makes that group equivalent to Americans as a whole.

That's basically true.  You are talking about 25% of the population.  You have to define a specific subgroup of 'Catholics' to get any meaning.  'Attending mass weakly or more' is commonly used and that group is lean to strong republican.  That group is less than half of "Catholics" though.  

Anyway, the odds are low that PA will be at the mean national average or leaning Pub. In other words, if Mittens wins PA, he most probably will not have needed to win it to hit the magic 270.

 

Exactly.  FL, VA, OH are the BIG juicy targets.  One of NV, CO, IA, WI puts him over the top.
Romney will win all these states before PA.  MI might have a quasi plausible finesse path to 50%+1 and is a mortal blow to the Obama jugular.  NJ is also in this MI, PA camp, but isn't as plausible as MI (theoretically/according to this report).  All three are threading a needle and MI for Romney may well be the biggest/easiest needle to thread.
FYI, WI and to a lesser extent MI, MN are becoming a lot more like OH and a lot less like IL.  


  

[Ljube]

Given the 50-50 nature of this election, I think Romney will compete in only 12 states. He will concentrate on defending Arizona and Missouri, winning back Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia, and winning Ohio and Florida. He would then need one more from the following list: Nevada, Colorado, Iowa, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.

[Wisconsin+17]

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As I said long ago. This election is o-vah.

[Wisconsin+17]

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So what you're saying is that Romney has no hope of winning?

[AmericanNation]

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So what you're saying is that Romney has no hope of winning?

He most likely wins at least two of those.  Three isn't unreasonable.   

[The Mikado]

The problem with Romney's strategy is that he essentially has to shoot the moon on swing states.  All it takes is an Obama win in either Ohio or Virginia to make a Romney win all but mathematically impossible.

[AmericanNation]

The problem with Romney's strategy is that he essentially has to shoot the moon on swing states.  All it takes is an Obama win in either Ohio or Virginia to make a Romney win all but mathematically impossible.

The thing is that the big juicy three might not be swing states in a few months.  Then Obama has to "shoot the moon" on swing states. 

[TJ in Oregon]

The problem with Romney's strategy is that he essentially has to shoot the moon on swing states.  All it takes is an Obama win in either Ohio or Virginia to make a Romney win all but mathematically impossible.

The thing is that the big juicy three might not be swing states in a few months.  Then Obama has to "shoot the moon" on swing states. 

The other thing is that one candidate shooting the moon on the the "big juicy three" swing states is more likely than only winning one or two of them. In fact, it's been 16 years since OH, FL, and VA haven't been won by the same candidate (and VA was a lot different back then).

[AmericanNation]

The other thing is that one candidate shooting the moon on the the "big juicy three" swing states is more likely than only winning one or two of them. In fact, it's been 16 years since OH, FL, and VA haven't been won by the same candidate (and VA was a lot different back then).

Great point. 60 EVs that generally swing as a block and lean Republican.  

[Wisconsin+17]

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On which planet? He's losing all of them by at least 5.

Plus, VA, NC, FL and OH, aren't in the bag either. VA should go to Obama, as well as all the rest of these. Romney should be putting all his money into these four states, because if he loses any one of those four, he's done.

Also - he's losing in Missouri. Romney has to win all 5 of these states, VA, NC, FL, OH, and MO, if he loses any one of these, he loses.

[Wisconsin+17]

"The thing is that the big juicy three might not be swing states in a few months.  Then Obama has to "shoot the moon" on swing states. "

If it's and but's were candy and nuts. Not happening, sorry.

[zorkpolitics]

Romney has not given up on PA:

"Romney will compete heavily in Pennsylvania, James said. The campaign started slowly because of the state's late primary, he said, but "June is our big growth month."

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/05/romney_eyes_pennsylvania_despite_big_obama_08_win_114381.html