MO-PPP: Obama+1

[Kevin]

This appears to be an outlier.  I bet Ras polls this sometime within the next 2-3 weeks.

Obama isn't not winning MO, not even gonna come close.

It's not that much of an outlier. In view of a recent poll that showed Tennessee coming within 7% of a tie and Missouri and Tennessee having a large number of the voters that I might expect President Obama to make gains among in 2012 (the Clinton-but-not-Obama voters of 2008) I can easily imagine President Obama winning Missouri.  

At this point I see no reason to believe that President Obama will win the 2012 election with results in the percentage of total vote or the loss or gain of any state that he won or lost by more than 4% in 2008 with the possible exception of Arizona (and that only because of the reversal of the Favorite Son effect).

Missouri will be close, as will be Arizona, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and one of the Congressional districts of Nebraska.

Who knows? Maybe he will get some credit for handling the aftermath of some tornadoes very well. Those tornadoes struck parts of Missouri in which President Obama did badly in 2008. When it comes to dealing with natural disasters he isn't quite like his predecessor.

I think this speaks better for McCaskill than Obama.

If Senator McCaskill wins Missouri and the President barely loses Missouri, then the President has still won.  

LOL!