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  MO-PPP: Obama+1
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Author Topic: MO-PPP: Obama+1  (Read 5962 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: May 30, 2012, 02:05:25 PM »

Q1 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance?

Approve .......................................................... 44%
Disapprove...................................................... 52%

Q2 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney?

Favorable........................................................ 38%
Unfavorable .................................................... 50%

Q3 If the candidates for President this year were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?

Barack Obama................................................ 45%
Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2011/PPP_Release_MO_053012.pdf
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2012, 02:59:53 PM »

This appears to be an outlier.  I bet Ras polls this sometime within the next 2-3 weeks.

Obama isn't not winning MO, not even gonna come close
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adrac
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« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2012, 03:02:36 PM »

I think this speaks better for McCaskill than Obama.
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backtored
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« Reply #3 on: May 30, 2012, 03:11:15 PM »

This appears to be an outlier.  I bet Ras polls this sometime within the next 2-3 weeks.

Obama isn't not winning MO, not even gonna come close

Republicans refuse to admit that Romney has a midwest problem, perhaps because the midwest is supposedly part of a brave new electoral map that the GOP is trying to create.  Yet Romney is doing much more poorly in Ohio, Michigan, Minnesota, and MIssouri than people expected.  The assumption that the GOP could veer off of the '00 or '04 maps was very misguided.  Romney really needs to win the south, take Colorado, and then push up turnout in SW Ohio to win the election.  It looks more and more like he'll need to duplicate the '04 map, minus NM, NV, and maybe IA, to win in November.
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Miles
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« Reply #4 on: May 30, 2012, 03:19:25 PM »

Database entry.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #5 on: May 30, 2012, 03:23:01 PM »

This appears to be an outlier.  I bet Ras polls this sometime within the next 2-3 weeks.

Obama isn't not winning MO, not even gonna come close.

It's not that much of an outlier. In view of a recent poll that showed Tennessee coming within 7% of a tie and Missouri and Tennessee having a large number of the voters that I might expect President Obama to make gains among in 2012 (the Clinton-but-not-Obama voters of 2008) I can easily imagine President Obama winning Missouri.  

At this point I see no reason to believe that President Obama will win the 2012 election with results in the percentage of total vote or the loss or gain of any state that he won or lost by more than 4% in 2008 with the possible exception of Arizona (and that only because of the reversal of the Favorite Son effect).

Missouri will be close, as will be Arizona, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and one of the Congressional districts of Nebraska.

Who knows? Maybe he will get some credit for handling the aftermath of some tornadoes very well. Those tornadoes struck parts of Missouri in which President Obama did badly in 2008. When it comes to dealing with natural disasters he isn't quite like his predecessor.

I think this speaks better for McCaskill than Obama.

If Senator McCaskill wins Missouri and the President barely loses Missouri, then the President has still won.  

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Rowan
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« Reply #6 on: May 30, 2012, 03:24:30 PM »

No.
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marvelrobbins
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« Reply #7 on: May 30, 2012, 03:49:44 PM »

Missouri Is a deadheat.In part because people don't like Romney.

I live In Missouri.Not too many politicans are viewed very well right now.Our conservative
Democratic Governor Jay Nixon Is probally the most popular one here.Roy Blunt Is more
unpopular than Obama or McCaskill.

If this election turns out to be 1996 a narrow Obama win Is possable.
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argentarius
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« Reply #8 on: May 30, 2012, 04:44:41 PM »

It's been a loooooooooooooooong time since PPP released a poll in which Romney is doing well. Their numbers are out of line with other pollsters.
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Ben Romney
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« Reply #9 on: May 30, 2012, 04:52:10 PM »

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

Even RV polls shows Romney picking up NE-2, IN, NC, & FL – and yes holding on to MO. But according to PPP we have a landslide for Obama!
PLEASE GIVE ME A BREAK!!

Obama won`t win a state he lost in 2008!!! Not without a big game changer!!!
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hopper
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« Reply #10 on: May 30, 2012, 04:55:10 PM »

 I think this will still be a Romney State come election day.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #11 on: May 30, 2012, 05:52:13 PM »

This appears to be an outlier.  I bet Ras polls this sometime within the next 2-3 weeks.

Obama isn't not winning MO, not even gonna come close

My basic rule of thumb is to split the difference between the latest  PPP (O+1) and Rassmusan (R+3) Polls (even though I think PPP is a better pollster), which puts  Romney only up one.  I have not seen anything to indicate the race in MO will not be close.
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President von Cat
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« Reply #12 on: May 30, 2012, 07:08:39 PM »

LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL LOL

Even RV polls shows Romney picking up NE-2, IN, NC, & FL – and yes holding on to MO. But according to PPP we have a landslide for Obama!
PLEASE GIVE ME A BREAK!!

Obama won`t win a state he lost in 2008!!! Not without a big game changer!!!

I don't see why Obama can't win Missouri, he lost it by ~0.2 points.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #13 on: May 30, 2012, 08:16:16 PM »

Obama will win kerry gore states plus co and nv 268 w nh or oh or va to put over 270.
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Kevin
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« Reply #14 on: May 30, 2012, 08:20:13 PM »

This appears to be an outlier.  I bet Ras polls this sometime within the next 2-3 weeks.

Obama isn't not winning MO, not even gonna come close.

It's not that much of an outlier. In view of a recent poll that showed Tennessee coming within 7% of a tie and Missouri and Tennessee having a large number of the voters that I might expect President Obama to make gains among in 2012 (the Clinton-but-not-Obama voters of 2008) I can easily imagine President Obama winning Missouri.  

At this point I see no reason to believe that President Obama will win the 2012 election with results in the percentage of total vote or the loss or gain of any state that he won or lost by more than 4% in 2008 with the possible exception of Arizona (and that only because of the reversal of the Favorite Son effect).

Missouri will be close, as will be Arizona, Florida, Indiana, North Carolina, and one of the Congressional districts of Nebraska.

Who knows? Maybe he will get some credit for handling the aftermath of some tornadoes very well. Those tornadoes struck parts of Missouri in which President Obama did badly in 2008. When it comes to dealing with natural disasters he isn't quite like his predecessor.

I think this speaks better for McCaskill than Obama.

If Senator McCaskill wins Missouri and the President barely loses Missouri, then the President has still won.  



LOL!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #15 on: May 30, 2012, 11:05:16 PM »

So, actually Romney +3 or so.
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Miles
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« Reply #16 on: May 30, 2012, 11:14:21 PM »


Yeah, I guess thats what you get after applying the krazen1211 Rule!
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Clamdick McClaw
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« Reply #17 on: May 31, 2012, 12:55:31 AM »

Doubtful.  I'd love for this to be true.

Romney is not the good fit for Missouri like Bush II was, but I seriously doubt he has much to worry about in MO.  If he does this election is long, long gone.

52-47 on Election Day for Romney. 
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morgieb
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« Reply #18 on: May 31, 2012, 02:19:37 AM »

lolololol Obama can't win any McCain states!!!! PPP's a Democratic hack organisation!!!!

Seriously, while I doubt this is true, it's great news for Camp D if it is.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #19 on: May 31, 2012, 01:36:16 PM »


Yeah, I guess thats what you get after applying the krazen1211 Rule!

Actually, I found the rule on Kos. PPP has been putting out polls about 4 points to the left of other pollsters like Quinnipiac.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #20 on: May 31, 2012, 01:44:38 PM »

Why would you rule this poll out? It's just verifying that Missouri is a tossup due to Romney's lack of appeal in the midwest.
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Sbane
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« Reply #21 on: June 02, 2012, 12:45:55 AM »

And Rasmussen polls tend to be the most Republican polls out there. Is it a conspiracy by him to make Republicans look good or just a house effect? Same with PPP. Do they just have a house effect (which over sampling Democrats and under sampling Independents can cause) or is it a sinister conspiracy?
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tpfkaw
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« Reply #22 on: June 02, 2012, 09:11:21 AM »

Do they just have a house effect (which over sampling Democrats and under sampling Independents can cause) or is it a sinister conspiracy?

In the end it doesn't matter - you'd have to take their polls with a grain of salt either way.
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Sbane
sbane
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« Reply #23 on: June 03, 2012, 12:00:41 AM »

Do they just have a house effect (which over sampling Democrats and under sampling Independents can cause) or is it a sinister conspiracy?

In the end it doesn't matter - you'd have to take their polls with a grain of salt either way.

Should we also view Rasmussen polls as suspect? They are just as biased to the Republicans.
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Holmes
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« Reply #24 on: June 03, 2012, 09:20:12 AM »

People acting as if Missouri isn't ridiculously close oftentimes.
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