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bawlexus91
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E: 4.00, S: -3.30

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« on: May 24, 2012, 09:49:02 AM »
« edited: June 07, 2012, 01:57:37 AM by . »
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ajb
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2012, 10:52:16 AM »
Quote from: bawlexus91 on May 24, 2012, 09:49:02 AM
"Survey of 1,103 registered voters was conducted May 17-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party registration: 37% Democrat; 28% Republican; 34% Independent.  Ideology: 36% Moderate; 31% Conservative; 17% Liberal; 13% Very conservative; 4% Very liberal."

Obama: 48%
Romney: 42%

Feb 29-March 2nd result:
Obama: 50%
Romney: 38%

Partisan sample of this poll is D+9.
Ohio turnout in 2008 was D+8
Ohio turnout in 2004 was R+5
...a 14 pt turnout swing from 2004? Umm, okay.

Except that this poll makes no guess as to what turnout will be in 2012.
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ajb
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2012, 11:22:50 AM »
Quote from: bawlexus91 on May 24, 2012, 11:10:09 AM
Quote from: ajb on May 24, 2012, 10:52:16 AM
Quote from: bawlexus91 on May 24, 2012, 09:49:02 AM
"Survey of 1,103 registered voters was conducted May 17-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party registration: 37% Democrat; 28% Republican; 34% Independent.  Ideology: 36% Moderate; 31% Conservative; 17% Liberal; 13% Very conservative; 4% Very liberal."

Obama: 48%
Romney: 42%

Feb 29-March 2nd result:
Obama: 50%
Romney: 38%

Partisan sample of this poll is D+9.
Ohio turnout in 2008 was D+8
Ohio turnout in 2004 was R+5
...a 14 pt turnout swing from 2004? Umm, okay.

Except that this poll makes no guess as to what turnout will be in 2012.

You're right, it doesn't. But it has a poll sample that I can compare to past turnouts.

You might want to rephrase your original message then, to remove the inaccurate expression "turnout swing."
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Smash255
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2012, 09:51:46 PM »
« Edited: May 24, 2012, 10:33:38 PM by Smash255 »
Quote from: bawlexus91 on May 24, 2012, 11:10:09 AM
Quote from: ajb on May 24, 2012, 10:52:16 AM
Quote from: bawlexus91 on May 24, 2012, 09:49:02 AM
"Survey of 1,103 registered voters was conducted May 17-20, 2012. The margin of error is +/- 3 percentage points.  Party registration: 37% Democrat; 28% Republican; 34% Independent.  Ideology: 36% Moderate; 31% Conservative; 17% Liberal; 13% Very conservative; 4% Very liberal."

Obama: 48%
Romney: 42%

Feb 29-March 2nd result:
Obama: 50%
Romney: 38%

Partisan sample of this poll is D+9.
Ohio turnout in 2008 was D+8
Ohio turnout in 2004 was R+5
...a 14 pt turnout swing from 2004? Umm, okay.

Except that this poll makes no guess as to what turnout will be in 2012.



You're right, it doesn't. But it has a poll sample that I can compare to past turnouts.

Party ID and Party registration are two different questions.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2012, 10:28:13 PM »
O+6 in Ohio? This election's over.
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The world will shine with light in our nightmare
Just Passion Through
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Norway


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E: -6.32, S: -7.48

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« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2012, 12:46:05 AM »
Quote from: Ben Kenobi on May 24, 2012, 10:28:13 PM
O+6 in Ohio? This election's over.

I want Romney to lose this as much as you do, but... it's really not.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
polnut
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Australia


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« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2012, 08:01:19 AM »
Quote from: Senator Scott on May 25, 2012, 12:46:05 AM
Quote from: Ben Kenobi on May 24, 2012, 10:28:13 PM
O+6 in Ohio? This election's over.

I want Romney to lose this as much as you do, but... it's really not.

It really isn't... considering how nasty this campaign is already... we've seen the (public) return of the birthers and more dog whistles... this always had the chance to become the ugliest campaign in history... let's see...
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2012, 08:04:51 AM »
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Virgil Goode isn't even in this poll, and he's losing by 6 in a state he needs to carry to win? It's over.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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Canada


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E: -6.19, S: -4.35

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« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2012, 11:40:20 AM »
One poll just came out showing Romney with a substantial lead in Florida. Another poll just came out showing BHO on top. The polls before that varied considerably. States swing back and forth. The election isn't until November, so quit jumping the gun.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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Jamaica
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E: -6.84, S: -0.17


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« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2012, 01:14:32 PM »
Bush capitalized on 911 and the bin laden tape in 04. Maybe this is another sign ohioans app obama killing bin laden. Ohio has went w inc last 3 prez u know.
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Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
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« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2012, 02:04:21 PM »
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You're losing by 6 to an incumbant in a state you need to win. It's over, Jim.
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Napoleon
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« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2012, 06:47:18 PM »
Everyone should join me in putting the Kenobi guy on ignore, it really helps.
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Snowstalker Mk. II
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Palestinian Territory, Occupied


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« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2012, 06:48:52 PM »
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mondale84
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« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2012, 10:44:01 PM »
Quote from: Governor Napoleon on May 25, 2012, 06:47:18 PM
Everyone should join me in putting the Kenobi guy on ignore, it really helps.

I like his thinking
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