Is this election over? (April 2012)

[Brittain33]

There's some discussion on the polling board as to whether this election is over or not. People think Romney is not positioned to defeat Obama.

I think we can all agree that even if Romney were a terrible candidate instead of simply a mediocre candidate, given the state of the economy and that Obama's human, conditions could enable him to win. So I'm setting the bar for "over" at 10% chance of winning. Which means that, given the normal course of events, no surprises or dramatic life-changing events, Romney basically has no way to win this election under his own control.

What do you think?

[They not like us]

30-40%

[Brittain33]

I'd put his chances at 25%. Not hopeless, not even ridiculous, but I don't see it coming together under most cases, and I think he's at a down point right now and has some highs ahead of him.

[Franzl]

No, certainly not over....and 25% sounds about right.

[tpfkaw]

No.

[You kip if you want to...]

25-35% chance. His chances rest on a major (negative) game changer in the economy. Like September 2008 wrecking any chance McCain had left.

[Bleach Blonde Bad Built Butch Bodies for Biden]

No more than 30%.

No.

Yes, yes, we've seen quite a lot of outliers this election, too.

[politicus]

About 25% for winning the EV. His chances of winning the PV are actually slightly better (30-35%) IMO.
Not sure if a Hispanic VP would improve his chances a little, but don't think so. In the end it will depend on how the economy goes.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

I'd be interested to hear what other Republicans think.

Right now, I'd say it's pretty much a toss-up. Maybe 45% Romney wins, 55% Obama wins.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Romney has a 20-25% chance of victory, which depends upon things going bad for the economy.  If we keep the current economy between now and the election, he has maybe a 5% chance of winning.  If start to double dip, his chances improve.

[memphis]

At this point, Romney needs something really bad to happen to America. Something akin to the Iranian hostage crisis or the 2008 financial crash. If things just keep floating the way they have, Obama will win easily. There's just no way to quantify that into a percentage.

[Wisconsin+17]

Mitt 'Goldwater' Romney.

At least we'll finally stop hearing about Goldwater-esque margins when we can have Romney-esque margins.

[Brittain33]

Mitt 'Goldwater' Romney.

At least we'll finally stop hearing about Goldwater-esque margins when we can have Romney-esque margins.

What state that McCain lost will Romney lose? Based on Obama's campaign offices, he's not expecting any state to flip, and counting on Indiana to be gone.

[GLPman]

This is absurd. It's only April. There's plenty of time until November. Just because Obama is preferred to win doesn't mean he will.

[Insula Dei]

About 25% for winning the EV. His chances of winning the PV are actually slightly better (30-35%) IMO.

That would mean at least a 10% chance of either candidate winning the election without winning the PV. That seems too much to me.

[Wisconsin+17]

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North Carolina, where he's down by 6? Colorado, where he's down by 12? Florida? Nevada? You name it, if it's a purple state, he'll lose it.

He'll be lucky to hold onto Utah, Idaho and Wyoming. I'm surprised he's not campaigning out in Montana.  

[Insula Dei]

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North Carolina, where he's down by 6? Colorado, where he's down by 12? Florida? Nevada? You name it, if it's a purple state, he'll lose it.

Er, those were all lost by McCain?

[Joe Biden 2020]

I actually give Romney a BETTER chance than Obama at this point, maybe 55%.  Obama is only human and the economy is not improving fast enough, and the disappointing March Jobs Report was just another example of that.  Obama can no longer blame the mess we're in on Bush.  He's been in for nearly 3 1/2 years and he has to start taking responsibility for the mess and owning up to the mess.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Romney has sky high negatives. 51+ percent for the challenger?

Has there ever been a challenger who's won with such sky high negatives?

[GLPman]

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Romney has sky high negatives. 51+ percent for the challenger?

Has there ever been a challenger who's won with such sky high negatives?

I didn't realize that Romney's "sky high negatives" guaranteed re-election for Obama in April.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Which is more than Mitt can say.

[Wisconsin+17]

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Most challengers have low negatives. Devil you know. Heck, even Bush II would have a better chance in this election than Romney.

[Joe Biden 2020]

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Most challengers have low negatives. Devil you know. Heck, even Bush II would have a better chance in this election than Romney.

Obama's not exactly basking in high popularity himself, though.

[Wisconsin+17]

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At least he correctly identifies his base.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

And dissappointed it quite a bit as well. Fortunately for him, they are still willing to crawl over broken glass for him.