Gabu
Atlas Star
Posts: 28,386
Political Matrix
E: -4.32, S: -6.52
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« on: January 13, 2005, 04:44:26 PM » |
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It seems to me that the one problem with this analysis is the oversimplification of the electoral process and of the parties. All things aside, yes, a "generic" GOP candidate and a "generic" Dem candidate, if the election is extremely boring and mundane on both sides, will probably follow the rules laid out. However, generic candidates don't exist (you can't really even start to compare, say, Bayh and Boxer, just because they're in the same party) and races are very rarely extremely boring and mundane on both sides. Pretty much every race except for those in the most extremely partisan states are decided by who is the better candidate, not simply by which party the candidate is from. As people have noted in the past, state politics can be very different from national politics.
I do recognize that this analysis is not meant to address fine details such as these, however, so this is mainly just a note rather than a critique of your analysis.
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