"Half a re-alignment" : Part 1 of 3 - The Senate

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Applying your analysis to the 1972 election, we have 97 "natural" Republicans.  The 1984 election gives us 96 "natural" Republicans.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

You're twisting his criteria into something it's not, but even if we're going to do that, you're still wrong because there were a lot of close States in those presidential elections.

The States he has listed as Republican are, for the most part, naturally GOP; and vice versa for the Democrats. The main one I would disagree with is West Virginia.

In 1972, Nixon won 48 states by at least 6 points, and a 49th point by 5 and change points, while losing 1 state by over 6 points, giving us 97 "natural" GOP senators.

In 1972, the Democrats *gained* in the Senate, ending up with 56 Dems, 42 GOP, and 2 who knows.

In 1984, the Democrats also gained in the Senate, ending up with 47 Dems, 53 GOP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It is important to remember that the Democrats ran John Kerry, who could not get elected to anything in the South. States like Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida will vote for a moderate Democrat, it's not shocking. Also, the Democrats have won open seats in the last 8 years in many states that currently trend GOP.

List of Open seats/Pickups won by the Dems in the last 8 years.... ??

It's a fairly short list actually...

Cantwell in Washington
Stabenow in Michigan
Kohl in Wisconsin
Carnahan in Missouri
Schumer in New York


I am sure I am missing more than a few... help me out here....but the list is shortish...

55 R / 45 D

1998:
Schumer in New York
Lost Illinois

55 R / 45 D

1999:
Pick up of Georgia by death

54 R / 46 D

2000:
Cantwell in Washington
Stabenow in Michigan
Carnahan in Missouri
Carper in Deleware
Nelson in Florida
Dayton in Minnesota
Lost Virginia, Nevada

50 R / 50 D

2001:
Jeffords switch
50 D / 49 R / 1 I

2002:
Pryor in Arkansas
Lost Minnesota (by death), Missouri, Georgia

51 R / 48 D / 1 I

2004
Salzaar in Colorado
Obama in Illinois
Lost NC, SC, FL, GA, LA, SD

55 R / 44 D / 1 I