Oklahoma hasn’t been mentioned…
Then again the race there proves Vorlon’s point I guess, very strong Dem candidates got soundly beat by a “Rightwing Nut-Job”… Alaska would be another case where an extremely strong Democrat was beaten by a mediocre and discredited Republican.
If the Oklahoma Senate election had been in the Mid Terms, Carson would have won... there was a huuuuuuge Evangelical and/or Fundamentalist turnout (Bush won every county in Oklahoma... including the east central coal counties that Gore won... though he won those by small margins) in Okie last year.
I don't know about that. Coburn did win by nearly 12%. Two things that would make me think otherwise that you need to take into consideration.
1. Bileyeu (Green Party cand.) took nearly 5% of the vote and I'm pretty sure that in Oklahoma nearly all of that came from Carson. Unless she's not in the race, that makes a bigger margin for Carson to overcome even if Evangelical turnout isn't so high.
2. Carson and Coburn in the House were from the same district, those east-central coal counties that Gore won in 2000. Both were extremely popular there (Coburn even maybe more so). I don't think Coburn percentages would have declined much even in a non-Presidential race in these areas because of that.
Remember, most people thought Inhofe couldn't win either because he was too right-wing as well. He's gotten about the same 55% in both of his races.
Coburn was the only Republican who could win that race because of point #2. Most moderate Republicans still don't realize this.
Do you think Carson can beat Inhofe in '08?