"Half a re-alignment" : Part 1 of 3 - The Senate (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 08:26:08 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  "Half a re-alignment" : Part 1 of 3 - The Senate (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: "Half a re-alignment" : Part 1 of 3 - The Senate  (Read 17246 times)
ian
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,461


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: -1.39

« on: January 29, 2005, 03:19:03 PM »

Oklahoma hasn’t been mentioned…

Then again the race there proves Vorlon’s point I guess, very strong Dem candidates got soundly beat by a “Rightwing Nut-Job”… Alaska would be another case where an extremely strong Democrat was beaten by a mediocre and discredited Republican.   

If the Oklahoma Senate election had been in the Mid Terms, Carson would have won... there was a huuuuuuge Evangelical and/or Fundamentalist turnout (Bush won every county in Oklahoma... including the east central coal counties that Gore won... though he won those by small margins) in Okie last year.

I don't know about that. Coburn did win by nearly 12%. Two things that would make me think otherwise that you need to take into consideration.

1. Bileyeu (Green Party cand.) took nearly 5% of the vote and I'm pretty sure that in Oklahoma nearly all of that came from Carson. Unless she's not in the race, that makes a bigger margin for Carson to overcome even if Evangelical turnout isn't so high.

2. Carson and Coburn in the House were from the same district, those east-central coal counties that Gore won in 2000. Both were extremely popular there (Coburn even maybe more so). I don't think Coburn percentages would have declined much even in a non-Presidential race in these areas because of that.

Remember, most people thought Inhofe couldn't win either because he was too right-wing as well. He's gotten about the same 55% in both of his races.

Coburn was the only Republican who could win that race because of point #2. Most moderate Republicans still don't realize this.

Do you think Carson can beat Inhofe in '08?
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.019 seconds with 12 queries.