"Half a re-alignment" : Part 1 of 3 - The Senate

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It is important to remember that the Democrats ran John Kerry, who could not get elected to anything in the South. States like Arkansas, Louisiana, and Florida will vote for a moderate Democrat, it's not shocking. Also, the Democrats have won open seats in the last 8 years in many states that currently trend GOP.

List of Open seats/Pickups won by the Dems in the last 8 years.... ??

It's a fairly short list actually...

Cantwell in Washington
Stabenow in Michigan
Kohl in Wisconsin
Carnahan in Missouri
Schumer in New York


I am sure I am missing more than a few... help me out here....but the list is shortish...

um, Mark Dayton?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So what does everyone think of this now?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's actually the suburban areas.

Not even those really. Much as I dislike them, most real suburban areas in Minnesota are only slightly GOP leaning at most. Those uber-GOP counties on the fringes of the metro are basically giant messes of subdivisions in the middle of wheat fields and farms. Area-wise (but not population-wise), they are still predominantely rural.

Interestingly, MN was one of the few states that last year's Presidential elections was fairly close to actual partisanship (which is why you had all those rural counties flipping to Kerry)

Somewhat true, but while Kerry improved among Gore in rural Minnesota, he still underperformed in historically DFL areas, he still lost Traverse county for instance and barely won Koochiching and Kittson. Even Hatch did better than Kerry in much of rural Minnesota, he even carried Marshall county (which voted over 57% for Bush)

That said though, the fact is, in a close race the Democrat's strength in rural Minnesota is not going to be the deciding factor:



That's a map of a Democratic victory.




Maps of Republican victories.