"Half a re-alignment" : Part 1 of 3 - The Senate

[Sam Spade]

Oklahoma hasn’t been mentioned…

Then again the race there proves Vorlon’s point I guess, very strong Dem candidates got soundly beat by a “Rightwing Nut-Job”… Alaska would be another case where an extremely strong Democrat was beaten by a mediocre and discredited Republican.   

If the Oklahoma Senate election had been in the Mid Terms, Carson would have won... there was a huuuuuuge Evangelical and/or Fundamentalist turnout (Bush won every county in Oklahoma... including the east central coal counties that Gore won... though he won those by small margins) in Okie last year.

I don't know about that.  Coburn did win by nearly 12%.  Two things that would make me think otherwise that you need to take into consideration.

1.  Bileyeu (Green Party cand.) took nearly 5% of the vote and I'm pretty sure that in Oklahoma nearly all of that came from Carson.  Unless she's not in the race, that makes a bigger margin for Carson to overcome even if Evangelical turnout isn't so high.

2.  Carson and Coburn in the House were from the same district, those east-central coal counties that Gore won in 2000.  Both were extremely popular there (Coburn even maybe more so).  I don't think Coburn percentages would have declined much even in a non-Presidential race in these areas because of that.

Remember, most people thought Inhofe couldn't win either because he was too right-wing as well.  He's gotten about the same 55% in both of his races.

Coburn was the only Republican who could win that race because of point #2.  Most moderate Republicans still don't realize this.

[Sam Spade]

I don't know about that.  Coburn did win by nearly 12%.  Two things that would make me think otherwise that you need to take into consideration.

1.  Bileyeu (Green Party cand.) took nearly 5% of the vote and I'm pretty sure that in Oklahoma nearly all of that came from Carson.  Unless she's not in the race, that makes a bigger margin for Carson to overcome even if Evangelical turnout isn't so high.

2.  Carson and Coburn in the House were from the same district, those east-central coal counties that Gore won in 2000.  Both were extremely popular there (Coburn even maybe more so).  I don't think Coburn percentages would have declined much even in a non-Presidential race in these areas because of that.

Remember, most people thought Inhofe couldn't win either because he was too right-wing as well.  He's gotten about the same 55% in both of his races.

Coburn was the only Republican who could win that race because of point #2.  Most moderate Republicans still don't realize this.

Yeah, Coburn (despite certain... er... not exactly moderate or entirely sane remarks) is a pretty strong candidate. Regional stuff seems to matter a lot in Oklahoma... If the GOP had run some Tulsa or Oklahoma City politician (like the guy that lost the nomination to Coburn... Humphries?) they wouldn't have won many Conservative Democrat voters as Coburn did and Carson would *probably* have won last year.
In a MidTerm year Carson v Coburn would probably be a tossup, but I think that Carson would pull it off. Maybe not. Certainly would have been a lot closer.

I can agree with those statements, even though I still Coburn would have won under that scenario. 

Carson attacked too hard against Coburn personally in the end.  It alienated some voters and probably cost him another 3-5% or so.