VA: Q-Pac: Obama over Romney by 8, over Santorum by 9

[ajb]

Obama 50 Romney 42
Obama 49 Santorum 40

Adding Bob McDonnell to the ticket doesn't change much:
Obama/Biden 50 Romney/McDonnell 43




http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1721

[nkpatel1279]

VA-13 is the state that gives Obama-D it's 270-280 electoral vote.
Obama-D has an electoral vote base of 227ev(OR-7,MI-16,WI-10,NM-5,and MN-10) plus he wins NV-6,PA-20,and CO-9=262ev. Before Obama-D is declared a winner in VA. He wins IA and or NH or OH.
PA-20,CO-9,and VA-13=269ev plus NV-6 or IA-6 gives Obama-D a 2nd term.

[pbrower2a]

VA-13 is the state that gives Obama-D it's 270-280 electoral vote.
Obama-D has an electoral vote base of 227ev(OR-7,MI-16,WI-10,NM-5,and MN-10) plus he wins NV-6,PA-20,and CO-9=262ev. Before Obama-D is declared a winner in VA. He wins IA and or NH or OH.
PA-20,CO-9,and VA-13=269ev plus NV-6 or IA-6 gives Obama-D a 2nd term.

I think that Ohio and Virginia, despite their differences in demographics and electoral history, will be the difference between a bare win and about 300 electoral votes. Beyond those states, President Obama picks up a raft of R-leaning states like NC, FL, MO, IN, and AZ together.

[marvelrobbins]

This confirms the marist poll of Obama leading In virginia.Again this shows Obama Is In good
shape In states that he carried In 2008.No poll has been done In IN so hard to know what Is
going on In that state.Florida Is a battleground.There have been polling that says Obama could
win NC again.Obama might have chance to win Mo and Az If things remain as they are now or even get better for Obama.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Database entry: https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2012/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120120318015

[Lief 🗽]

No, Politico assured us that Bob McDonnell would lock up both Virginia and North Carolina for Mitt Romney. There's no way this poll is accurate.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I don't think the impact of having a popular Governor campaigning as VP candidate can really be measured by the poll question. Still, it won't be enough for Romney to win if he's this far down.

[Ben Romney]

 I think VA will be the OH of 2004 and the fL of 2000 but no way that Obama is in a big lead like that!
Quinnipiac is usually pretty accurate,but this VA poll is a little odd.
1-It has many more Republicans voting for Obama then vice versa
2-Romney carries men by only 2 points,and
3- Virginians trust Obama on the economy by 3 points over Romney.
It was those clueless young people that turned out for Obama in 2008.
I think VA is a future solid blue state with all the govermentt workers in the state however I think it has 1-3 more cycles as a swing state before that happens!

[Alcon]

I think VA will be the OH of 2004 and the fL of 2000 but no way that Obama is in a big lead like that!
Quinnipiac is usually pretty accurate,but this VA poll is a little odd.
1-It has many more Republicans voting for Obama then vice versa
2-Romney carries men by only 2 points,and
3- Virginians trust Obama on the economy by 3 points over Romney.
It was those clueless young people that turned out for Obama in 2008.
I think VA is a future solid blue state with all the govermentt workers in the state however I think it has 1-3 more cycles as a swing state before that happens!

Are any of those actually atypical or implausible given the MoE?

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

Quinnipac is one of the best posters around (typically better than PPP). This is great news.

[pbrower2a]

Even Rasmussen has President Obama wining Nevada big. With all states that went for both Gore in 2000 and Kerry in 2000, those four states that have gone for the Republican nominee only once in the last five Presidential elections (IA, NH, NM), and two states that have drifted very D very fast (CO, NV), the President wins a bare re-election. That is before Ohio and Virginia. 

Rasmussen uses a "likely voter" screen, and that now seems to suggest an electorate similar to that of 2010. Cautious as a "likely voter" screen seems at this stage at predicting who the voters are, it ignores that some "highly-likely" voters will quit voting due to death or senility and that there will be no new voters. Because age and voting patterns are in no way independent such skews the vote toward an older and more conservative electorate than would otherwise exist. 

[TheGlobalizer]

Quinnipac is one of the best posters around (typically better than PPP). This is great news.

They're good for a uni pollster but not quite one of the best overall, IMO.