The Great Nordic Thread

[ingemann]

For the question, Iceland probably will, Norway probably won't.

But on another topic (now that we have a Dane with us) how is Helle doing as prime minister?

Right now badly PR-wise, the government go from bad media case after another. Some blame SF/SPP because they didn't want to let their congestion charge go. But I blame the Social Liberal because they had been such assholes in the negotiation, and didn't want to let SPP get even any of their symbolic policies through*, so they had to fight for the few they got, even when they turned into disasters.

*Reminding us all, that the reason DPP has had such excellent results the last decade, was just as much because people was really tired of the Social Liberals arrogance and obnoxious smugness as anything to do with immigrants, and I write this as someone agreeing with the Social Liberals on most policies, imagine how people disagreeing with them feel!  

[ingemann]

Yes Krarup are a racist (whether other members of DPP are racist can be discussed Krarup and her relative no it can't be discussed), she's also a Bull in a China shop, but the New Zealandic reaction have been positive hilarious (the NZ right; she correct and all foreigners think these things, the NZ left; she should be grateful to see how tradition). I can only thank the Almighty that it was NZ she did it and not a state with a tendency to overreaction (and we couldn't afford to insult). My guess is that Krarup in the future are asked not to join these trips.

I also find it hilarious that it's this the New Zeanders get their panties in a twist over, and not all the much worse thing she wrote. I guess it hit a place which hurt.

[ingemann]

As I understand it Rødt is more dogmatic than Enhedslisten and has been really bad at attracting young people?

Really? I had the impression in the opposite way.
So the "real" Communist party of Norway isn't any kind of player?

Enhedslisten are a mix of several difference extreme left political parties going from democratic Euro-socialists to Communists (of all brands) . As such Enhedslisten can't be dodmatic as some parts of it support a democratic revolution and some a violent one.

[ingemann]

I actually see some similarity to Germany, where the CDU is prepared to give in to most of the SPD´s requests related to welfare (minimum wage, rent control, etc.), as long as they can avoid accepting dual citizenship (held by 5.4% of Lübeck's population, though officially non-existing), and legalising gay marriage.

There is a big difference between things like that coming from conservatives and from SD left wingers. Its the intra party aspect, where SD left wingers are marginalized by a dominant right wing, I find interesting. Is cooperation between "right wing" populists and SD left wingers  something we will see in the future, because those two groups are the only major groups outside of the neo-liberal consensus?
I think right wing populists are too genuinely rightist in most countries, but I was interested in your thoughts.

The Danish intra-party aspect is interesting and special, indeed. A similar debate took place within the SPD a few years ago, but it was triggered by a right-winger (read: fiscal conservative), namely Thilo Sarrazin. That debate had the "modernisation" and the "social justice" wings inside the SPD uniting against a common internal enemy. Ultimately, with the Grand Coalition, the "social justice" wing looks forward to achieving a good part of their objectives, while "modernisation" has mostly been postponed to 2017 at earliest.

As a member of the Danish Social Democrats, I would say that the internal coalition in the party are relative stable at this point. Thorning, for all the bad things which can be said about her, have been quite good at rewarding the different fraction in the party, at the same time the mix of the fear of internal conflict so close to the next election, and the hope which came from the Løkke's problem with the GGGI (which have energised the Party), mean that the Social Democrats right now support her. In fact together with the improvement in the economy, the fact that she has more or less taken the power in the government back from the Social Liberals, mean that she has more backing now than any time since the election.

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DPP are quite different from most Far Right Parties in Europe, it's a very professional run party, there are few to no connections to the extreme right, and they keep their agreements. It make it hard to avoid making deals with them. The old Progress Party was more like other European Far Right parties, which was why it was kept outside influence.

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Danish municipalities have more power than the average European municipality, so it's more important position than in other countries, at the same time most Danish parties favour many personal votes in the election, while the municipalities are small enough that in most municipalities 150 personal votes are enough to break the party list and become 2 or 3 elected by a party. At the same time while fewer immigrants votes (30-40%), the ones who vote tend to vote personal on people they know (I have only anecdotal evidence for this). This mean that while there are fewer immigrants on the lists, they are more likely to be elected, especially among the bigger parties.

Of course some of the "immigrants" elected are not immigrants at all. In Lyngby-Taarbæk an Upper Class Conservative stronghold, they have elected Sofia Osmani. While her father was an Indian immigrants, she see herself as Danish, and while a few media have described her as coming from an immigrant background (which she objected to, this may seem weird when described in English, but it's just something lost in translation, not because she deny her father's foreign background), most media have ignored her foreign name.

[ingemann]

I think we have the same thing in Finland when the SDP is trying to get the conservative working class voters back from the right-wing populists by saying things like "when in Rome, act like a roman" and trying to avoid socially liberal themes like gender neutral marriage and immigration. This is of course more common among the old SDP actives than in the younger wing.

While there have been some "discussion" among the Danish SDP about immigration, the whole gender neutrality discussion have died out in the party without further ado. SDP support women rights, but the whole gender neutrality from gender neutral marriage, gender neutral ID and the use of Hen (an artificial gender neutral first person pronoun created by the Swedes) are simply seen as non issues or a bad joke by the vast majority of the party. The big internal discussion about gender issues in the party have been about ban on prostitution and quotas for women in boards of directors.

[ingemann]

Kind of sad Auken chose to join the Social Liberals it would have been far more interesting if she teamed up with Uffe Elbæks The Alternative, which looks like it could evolve into something resembling the German Greens. But its obviously a safer career move.

Not to insult anybody, but I think everyone get why she didn't embraced the Alternative, it honestly it look at best like something like Ny Alliance, just with less clear politic and without a widely popular front man, in fact it doesn't even seem to have politic yet, just meta-politic of bringing something new to Danish politics. As for worst case it simply seem to be Retsforbundet anno 2014. While it may make a niche for itself in Danish politics, weirded thing have been seen, I think they will go the same way as most new parties in Danish politics.

Ida Auken clearly became Social Liberal because she wanted to have influence on Danish politics, and there the Social Liberals wasn't a bad choice.

[ingemann]

Kind of sad Auken chose to join the Social Liberals it would have been far more interesting if she teamed up with Uffe Elbæks The Alternative, which looks like it could evolve into something resembling the German Greens. But its obviously a safer career move.

Not to insult anybody, but I think everyone get why she didn't embraced the Alternative, it honestly it look at best like something like Ny Alliance, just with less clear politic and without a widely popular front man, in fact it doesn't even seem to have politic yet, just meta-politic of bringing something new to Danish politics. As for worst case it simply seem to be Retsforbundet anno 2014. While it may make a niche for itself in Danish politics, weirded thing have been seen, I think they will go the same way as most new parties in Danish politics.

Ida Auken clearly became Social Liberal because she wanted to have influence on Danish politics, and there the Social Liberals wasn't a bad choice.

All true and fairly obvious. Like I have stated earlier the "green" wing of SPP is already quasi-Social Liberal too begin with, so its no surprise that a career girl like her join them. If she had had another family background, she would likely have gone that road to begin with.

Yes I agree, clearly she only chosen SPP rather than the Social Liberals because of her mother's membership.

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I think we run into a fundamental difference here, I think the Alternative are fundamental a party attempting to move into an already full political niche and the new thing they have to offered are ... well purely structural. I don't see a fundamental difference from SL, UL or SPP on environment, economical I have no idea what they offer yet, expect they don't call themselves socialists and structural they seem to offer the bottom up structure of UL and SPP. So I personal I see them as SL with the internal structure or UL. After SPP collapse I don't see that as a selling issue.

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I didn't have a problem Retforbundet, but the thing which killed them, was not their politic, but decentral structur which made cooperation and compromises almost impossible.

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I agree that it's the fundamental problem in Danish politics, the problem are that I don't see the Alternative as the solution, the Chaos Pilot (a education founded by Elbæk) have never lived up to the promises of bringing the wild creativity of the artistic world (Elbæk's own words) into the private sector, most Chaos Pilots have ended up in the public or semi-public sector. Honestly I see Elbæk as mostly full of hot air, and the Alternative seem just one more hot air project. But while with the Chaos Pilots he only needed to convince a few "latte drinkers" (sorry don't hit me) in the public administration, here he will have to convince at least several procents of the voters which already have several green alternatives. I don't think he will succeed here, it's a relative niche he goes after and it's already full.

[ingemann]

All reamining 12 members of SPPs parliamentary group backs former minister Pia Olsen Dyhr from the party "green" right wing as new chairman of the . So it looks like a shoe in for Olsen dyhr that lost a chairmanship election in 2005. Its a bit surprising that the left wing that has 7 members doesnt want to field an opponent, but all possible candidates has declined.

I really don't see any among them, who would be able to get the chairman post, and even if they did they would have to deal with losing the next election. Dyhr can at least blame the loss next election on others, as she was not the one which negotiated the government deal and didn't create chaos in the party.
 

[ingemann]

DF biggest party in a national poll for the first time ever. In a poll by YouGov for MetroExpress, DF is the biggest party. This is not very surprising days after they won the EP elections clearly and with the Liberals tormented by the expenses scandals of their leader, but nevertheless quite significant. No suprise that it's a YouGov poll either; they have consistenly been showing the highest DF results.

DF 23.9% 42 seats
Liberals 21.3% 38
Social Democrats 17.6% 31
Enhedslisten/Unity List 11.9% 21
Social Liberals 8.7% 15
Liberal Alliance 6.7% 12
SF 4.8% 9
Conservatives 4.2% 7
Christian Democrats 0.9% 0

Government + supporting parties = 76 seats
Opposition = 99 seats

With a result like this, could Thulesen Dahl become Prime Minister, or is DF still controversial enough that Venstre would refuse to enter a coalition with them?

As politicus says the big problem is DPP's EU policy, while DPP are not against EU (as they don't support Denmark leaving it), they're to critical and populist on the issue to gain support from a majority in parliament.

[ingemann]

The problem with transfering he whole Christian democratic Party to Denmark and comparing the different Christian movement in DPP and CD (Christian Democrats)/CPP (Christian People Party) are several.

Traditional the fundamentalist and low church elements in Danish Lutheranism have connected with liberal and socialist parties.

As for CPP have only reached out to a relative small and specifict segment in the Danish Lutheran movement; the crypto calvinist "Indre Mission" (Internal Mission) who make up around 6-10 percent of the Danish population, and among this movement only a minority have supported CPP, most have traditional voted Venstre, but some found Venstre too right and anti-solidaric, but was not willing to vote on the "Godless" Social democrats. Historical these people voted for for the Social Liberals, but when pornography and abortion was made legal in the late 60ties, these people became aware, that the Social Liberals no longer represented their interest, and CPP was established. This are a quite different history from Christian Democrats outside Scandinavia.

The religious aspects in DPP have very little in common with this. First of all the priests in DPP belong to Tidehverv a very small and elitary ecclessial fraction in Danish Lutheranism, which build individualism, nationalist and the thoughts of Kierkegaard. Before their connection with DPP, Tidehverv was traditional split between a pro-Social Democratic fraction and a pro-Conservative fraction, with the latter fraction in the thirties flirting with fascism. While the priest from Tidehverv have delivered much of DPP's intellectualism it have never really reached down to the common voters, which if they're religious at all are more likely to identify with the very liberal but somewhat nationalist Grundtvigianism.
So what Tidehverv have delivered to DPP are not voters, but an intellectual ballast, which the party needed.

[ingemann]

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http://www.dr.dk/Nyheder/Andre_sprog/English/2014/06/02/130923.htm

[ingemann]

Very interesting poll. I didn’t expect to see the Social Democrats do so well, or Venstre do so badly.

If Danish Peoples Party actually became bigger than Venstre in a real election, how would that change the dynamics on the Danish right?

I have no idea and if someone say they do, they're wrong.

DPP are between two point, the untouchable and the mainstream, last time such a party became the biggest was the SocDem in the early part of the century. So there are little precedence for how the voters and the Right will react to DPP being biggest. I doubt the Right would give DPP the PM position, on the other hand if DPP are the biggest party, it would look weird, as avoidance of responsability (from DPP side) and as an insult (from the other party in government) if they didn't became part of the government.

[ingemann]

Wasn't "Liberal leader Lars gets in trouble after extravagant lifestyle scandals" also in Borgen? Danish politicians really are rip-offs.

Lars Løkke Rasmussen have been an important player in Danish politics for decades and he has always been sleazy (as 17 year old leader of Venstre's youth, he cheapted a band out of 30 000 Dkr/4000-5000$, based on him being to young to sign the contract). As County Major he was well known for his willingness to use tax money on himself and his drinking friends. So it's more likely that Borgen's character are the rip-off.

As for his success in staying, I think no one expected him to say "that's a nice party you have there... it would be a shame if something happened to it".

[ingemann]

So, since all sources seem to point towards the dear Gucci Helle as next in line for Van Rompuy's cushy EU job, who is likely to replace her as Prime Minister in Denmark? I don't really know who's up and coming in the Social Democratic party on your side of Öresund.

Mette Frederiksen (36) our minister of employment, she have a lot of thing going for her, she have had the sh**ttiest ministery, she have had to implement the most unpopular policies of this government. All her dirty laundry are more or less in the open, she has apoligised for her hypocrisy in sending her children in private school, while she was against private schools a decade ago (her apoligy).

...and people still love her, in fact she's more popular than ever.

And of course she look like this.



So no one will call her something like Gucci Helle.

And she have made the right alliance in the part, so I doubt there will be a serious candidate going against her, when the party elect her.

My own opinion of her are that she's intelligent, competent and unlikely to have any skeleton in the closet. Also she has a broad appeal to the different segments who tradional vote Social Democratic. Her electoral district is Ballerup; a working class suburb to Copenhagen.  

[ingemann]

Is it me or heads of states in Europe are getting younger and younger? We would have three 30-something and they are quite a few in their 40s...

No it's not you, I personal think it's a natural effect of politician entering politic younger and younger. Of course here's it's something of a accident, the "crown princes" of the Social Democrats was Nick Hækkerup and Nicolai Wammen, who are both in their forties. But because MF have been so successful as a minister and those two less so, she have jumped ahead of them.

[ingemann]

A 36-year-old prime minister would be pretty damn impressive. Would probably be the youngest Head of Government of a democratic country?

Her quotes about private schools does make her a massive hypocrite though. It's stuff like that which leads to contempt for politicians. She seems to want one set of rule for herself and another set for everyone else.

Yes

Of course she made them in her early twenties, and when she send (first of) her children in private school, she did so after the child have gone to a public school (and from what I been told about the school from people living in the district, I understand her), and she openly told it and didn't attempt to hide it.

[ingemann]

A 36-year-old prime minister would be pretty damn impressive. Would probably be the youngest Head of Government of a democratic country?

The new Estonian prime minister is even younger. The three newest heads of government in the EU are Renzi (Italy, 39yo), Taavi Roivas (Estonia, 34yo) and Stubb (Finland, 46yo).

We'll probably have to wait the autumn to know whether Helle gets the job at the EU though.

She's apperently the prefered candidate of Merkel, Renzi, and Cameron. (selfie-buddies)
It wouldn't surprise me if it isn't made official until the autumn, but it's pretty clear that she will get a new ridiculously high salary to buy all the fashionables she has ever dream of, and Denmark will get a new likable Prime Minister.  

If HTS was after a high paycheck she would not be PM of Denmark. She's in it for the power, as such I have no doubt that she will take the job as President of the European Council, if it's offered to her. But to suggest it's over money is both ignorant and silly. 

[ingemann]

A 36-year-old prime minister would be pretty damn impressive. Would probably be the youngest Head of Government of a democratic country?

The new Estonian prime minister is even younger. The three newest heads of government in the EU are Renzi (Italy, 39yo), Taavi Roivas (Estonia, 34yo) and Stubb (Finland, 46yo).

We'll probably have to wait the autumn to know whether Helle gets the job at the EU though.

She's apperently the prefered candidate of Merkel, Renzi, and Cameron. (selfie-buddies)
It wouldn't surprise me if it isn't made official until the autumn, but it's pretty clear that she will get a new ridiculously high salary to buy all the fashionables she has ever dream of, and Denmark will get a new likable Prime Minister.  

If HTS was after a high paycheck she would not be PM of Denmark. She's in it for the power, as such I have no doubt that she will take the job as President of the European Council, if it's offered to her. But to suggest it's over money is both ignorant and silly. 

Why would Cameron want HTS?

Pro-British politician from a country outside the Eurozone which tradional (before the British began to behave like raving lunatics) was one of usual allies of UK in EU. Yes she's more pro-Labour than Tory, but with the choices Cameron have limited himself to in EU, she's the best he can get.

[ingemann]

If HTS was after a high paycheck she would not be PM of Denmark. She's in it for the power, as such I have no doubt that she will take the job as President of the European Council, if it's offered to her. But to suggest it's over money is both ignorant and silly. 

Are you trying to channel Frank Underwood?

I don't channel anything, but any politician who have made it to the first row in one of the big traditional parties, could make more in the private sector or in one of the union affiliated companies (like the big pension companies).

Also anyone who have followed her career can see she's a ruthless career politicians.

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Except I would say that right now, if she's not elected President of the Council, her chance to be reelected are rather high as the government. She can more or less just wait for the next scandal in Venstre. It doesn't look like there are any negative surprises in the economy, the unemplyment are falling, the economy are growth. So right now it's a waiting game, to see what skeletons are hiding in LLR's closet.
 

[ingemann]

What, exactly, is the point of the Danish Conservatives these days? Lobbying group for right-wing municipal machines?

Honestly I don't think anybody know at least not on national level, through I don't think it's "Lobbying group for right-wing municipal machines", it's more lobbying for Gentofte, Lyngby and the other municipalities in the Whisky Belt. Ironic the Conservative have always been in the traditional market towns around the country, but they have more or less ignored that groups interest. Which is why I find this choice interesting, as he come from Jutish market town and he are not as most Danish party leaders a economist or lawyer, but a freight fowarder and teacher. Also the fact that he's the mayor of Viborg also make him rather different from the other party leaders.

While I'm not sure he's going to be a success, I think that based on his CV alone, he's a good choice, the question are whether that translate into him being able to get success as party leader are the big question.

Through I would say I was impressed with his speech to the press, while he didn't say anything new, or anything which would get me to vote for him. He did make the Conservative position clear and showed how it was relevant for the individual Dane something Barfoed have not succeed at after 3 year as leader of the Conservatives.

[ingemann]

There are a interesting rumour going around about Søren Pape Poulsen, that he's gay and in fact married to another man. He was asked about by the tabloid Ekstra Bladet in a interview and his answer was that he didn't talk about his private life.

[ingemann]

Compared to Schlüter times, which kind of voters Conservatives have lost.

Honestly I don't have the numbers, but from that I can see most of those people vote Venstre or SocDem today.

[ingemann]

How about Centrum-Demokraterne. When I first read about Danish politics it was Schlüter winning second term in late eighties.

What about CD? If you want to know why they died out, it was because they more or less was a family party, who build on some issue several other parties also adopted. The party was estabnlished because in Erhard opinion SocDem had moved to far to the west, and it was really a party for "right wing" (compared to the rest of the party) social democrats, so from the movement Nyrup became PM, it was just a matter of time before the party would die out. It tried hard to build a new platform as a centre party with the right opinions (not xenophobic), but at the time that platform belonged to the social liberals and the kind of people voting for CD, suburban social democrats was the people least likely to buy into that platform as they lived as neighbours to the immigrants.

[ingemann]

There are a interesting rumour going around about Søren Pape Poulsen, that he's gay and in fact married to another man. He was asked about by the tabloid Ekstra Bladet in a interview and his answer was that he didn't talk about his private life.

It seems that it's not a just rumour

http://www.thelocal.dk/20140813/conservative-leader-im-gay-so-what

[ingemann]

There are a interesting rumour going around about Søren Pape Poulsen, that he's gay and in fact married to another man. He was asked about by the tabloid Ekstra Bladet in a interview and his answer was that he didn't talk about his private life.

It seems that it's not a just rumour

http://www.thelocal.dk/20140813/conservative-leader-im-gay-so-what

Well, its not an issue if you are open about it, but still not a thing you can just say is irrelevant if you are leader of a party with at least some reservations aobut full equality for homosexuals.

While it's 100% better than being in the closet, I still think it's a bigger issue than we want it to be, I personal think that Denmark are a lot more homophobic than we tell ourselves, of course that homophobia are passive instead of agressive, so it's usual not an isue, but as leader of the Conservatives, we may see some of their traditional voters selecting other parties. Through luckily for the Conservatives, these people don't really have a alternative, as LA and V are just as friendly to homosexual, and if these people don't vote DPP already, they will not vote for them.

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I don't think this will end up an mayor issue, municipalities and mayors get away with these things all the time, and in the one case they didn't get away with it (Brixtofte), it was because he did something which very illegal. This is a gray area, and few voters care about such issues.