The Great Nordic Thread

[Gunnar Larsson]

Meanwhile, in Iceland polling:

Pirates: 32%
Independence: 22%
Left-Green: 11%
Progressive: 11%
Social Democrats: 11%
Bright Future: 8%

http://kjarninn.is/2015/05/piratar-langstaerstir-samkvaemt-nyrri-konnun/

ummmm

What would you expect? Iceland was settled by Vikings, this is just back to basics..

[Gunnar Larsson]

I read that the Sweden Democrats are organizing a Gay Pride parade in some of Stockholm's "ghettos", which I think is pretty funny... does this get a lot of media attention in Sweden?

thats hilarious. id join in just for fun. perhaps right-populist parties should do this more often.

Getting stoned is not funny, and that is what happened to our (normal and legitimate) gay pride parade year after year when they passed through Nørrebro, which only has about a third Muslims. This parade is going through majority Muslim areas (70-75%) and is organized by Islamophobes. Violence is inevaitable.

Didn't know that this happened to the Danish parade. I'm not really surprised, but that is awful and appalling.

Hopefully, all of progressive Sweden will not immediately have the "OMG Sweden Democrats!1!!" Pavlov, but instead think about the issue that the Sweden Democrats want to address. The sad truth is that there is a contradiction between progressive values (like equality for LGBTs) and multiculturalism/mass immigration. At least, The Sweden Democrats are right about that type of hypocrisy.

Well the Sweden Democrat behind it is himself known to make homophobe remarks..

The contradiction is not between progressive values and immigration but between progressive values and conservative values, no matter if voiced by natives or immigrants.

[Gunnar Larsson]

It is a bit nostalgic to see all this Icelandic enthusiasm for helping refugees since it is a reminder of how things once were in mainland Scandinavia - before integration problems, culture clashes and rising crime changed things. I hope for the Icelanders that their idea of targeting gays and single women will help them avoid this. It is in accordance with my thoughts that asylum in Europe should mainly be for vulnerable groups, that are in danger in the refugee camps rather than the strong and healthy, who have the money and stamina to reach Europe, but could handle being in the camps (of course refugees getting to Europe can be a ticket to safety for vulnerable family members, but it is still a dilemma that I think is usually ignored).

There is still enthusiasm for helping! And it is not like xenophobic attitudes were unknown, the only difference is that it is organised (not a small difference, but still).

Unfortunately I think it is highly likely that European countries change their policies in your direction, as that would mean being able to apply at an embassy or consulate in your country of residence, rather than spending huge money on getting to Europe by all possible means of transport.

[Gunnar Larsson]

The Finnish prime minister has promised to accommodate refugees in his home:
http://yle.fi/uutiset/pm_sipila_pledges_oulu_home_to_refugees/8282824

[Gunnar Larsson]

New Icelandic refugee poll:
http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/492-taep-90-vilja-taka-a-moti-flottamoennun-fra-syrlandi

How many Syrian war refugees should Iceland take in the next 12 months?

None 11.5
Max 50 19.4 (current quota)
Max 150 14.0
Max 250 10.7
Max 500 14.5 (government pro-refugee ministers estimate)
500-1000 9.0
1000-2000 6.5
More than 2000 14.8 (very high, 1600 is proportionally = Sweden)


Share that wants more than 2000:

BF 36%
Pirates 25%
LG 23%
SDA 19%
PP 7%
IP 2%


Share that wants none:

PP 18%
IP 12%
Pirates 10%
SDA 8%
LG 2%
BF 0%

So it seems BF is in accordance with their voters in wanting more refugees. The Pirate voters are very divided on this. 25% wants either zero refugees or only the current quota of 50, while 25% wants to take more than 2000! So this question could potentially stem the Pirate craze since they have a very pro-refugee policy.

To put the numbers in perspective, if Iceland had 33 million people, instead of 330 000, add two zeros, so the last option would correspond to more than 200 000 refugees. Also, the comparison with Sweden would be 1000, Sweden has 30 times the population of Iceland and had 30 000 Syrians refugees last year. I haven't seen any similar poll for any other country, but would guess that the numbers are fairly typical, or perhaps a bit more pro-refugee than other countries. I would interpret it as 30 % would like Iceland to receive no more refugees than the current level, 30-40 % would like a bit more and 30 % would like many more.

Would have been interesting if they had let those polled rank the importance of the question. I would guess that this would not be only issue in which pirate party voters can be found on both sides.

I am a bit surprised that the numbers for men and women are pretty similar, would assume that in general men are more anti-refugees. The age divide on other hand is fairly substantial..

[Gunnar Larsson]

New Icelandic refugee poll:
http://mmr.is/frettir/birtar-nieurstoeeur/492-taep-90-vilja-taka-a-moti-flottamoennun-fra-syrlandi

How many Syrian war refugees should Iceland take in the next 12 months?

None 11.5
Max 50 19.4 (current quota)
Max 150 14.0
Max 250 10.7
Max 500 14.5 (government pro-refugee ministers estimate)
500-1000 9.0
1000-2000 6.5
More than 2000 14.8 (very high, 1600 is proportionally = Sweden)

[..]

To put the numbers in perspective, if Iceland had 33 million people, instead of 330 000, add two zeros, so the last option would correspond to more than 200 000 refugees. Also, the comparison with Sweden would be 1000, Sweden has 30 times the population of Iceland and had 30 000 Syrians refugees last year. I haven't seen any similar poll for any other country, but would guess that the numbers are fairly typical, or perhaps a bit more pro-refugee than other countries. I would interpret it as 30 % would like Iceland to receive no more refugees than the current level, 30-40 % would like a bit more and 30 % would like many more.

Would have been interesting if they had let those polled rank the importance of the question. I would guess that this would not be only issue in which pirate party voters can be found on both sides.

I am a bit surprised that the numbers for men and women are pretty similar, would assume that in general men are more anti-refugees. The age divide on other hand is fairly substantial..

Men are more anti-refugees in the poll "pretty similar" is an interpretation. Fx. 14% of men wants no refugees vs. only 9% of women.

I think your interpretation is flawed, you are lumping too many options together.

No refugees means no refugees, not keeping the current level. If you take seniors fx. there is a big group on 30% in favor of keeping the current level (more than any other group), while only 5% wants no refugees (lowest for any age group) - this is the generation where Christian ethics and "we have to help" norms are strong even among those that do not really like the thought of getting more foreigners in. While younger generations have higher numbers for zero refugees, but less support for the current level. It would be more legitimate to say zero in younger generations and I see no reason why zero doesn't mean zero when there is a current level option. It is more likely that there is a "shy zero" factor among the olds.

Pirate Party voters include a large chunk of low income voters and they are the most anti-refugee (by far), so that likely explains most of the split from the creative class/higher middle class progressives.

The 1600 figure is a comparison made by a Swedish journalist in Iceland I normally trust, and is not solely based on Syrians.

Of course it is all a matter of interpretation. However, I am pretty sure that it is hard to find a country where the difference between men and women are less than in this poll. No matter how you look at it the cumulative numbers of pro- or against are never more than a few percent, compare that with the differences between different age groups!

Similarly with regards to lumping together the different alternatives. My point is, people do not general think in terms of exact numbers, but rather is it more or less than today. You could also argue that a ten-fold increase is not "a bit more".. Over all, a clear majority want to increase the number of refugees.

The 1000 figure is based on
http://scb.se/sv_/Hitta-statistik/Artiklar/Antalet-asylsokande-okar-for-tredje-aret-i-rad/ + population numbers, i.e. official statistics.

[Gunnar Larsson]

Brevik feels sorry for himself, again:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34401166