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Poll
Question: Will Iceland and Norway ever join the EU?
#1
Iceland, but not Norway
 
#2
Norway, but not Iceland
 
#3
Both
 
#4
None of them
 
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Partisan results

Total Voters: 178

Author Topic: The Great Nordic Thread  (Read 201142 times)
DavidB.
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« Reply #725 on: October 03, 2015, 02:19:11 PM »

The fascinating thing with these polls is the stability. Except a few outliers almost all variation in the last five months has been within the margin of error, so basically the Icelandic party system has seemingly stabilized in a surreal scenario - for now. If there were wild swings it would be harder to take this seriously, but a third  of Icelandic electorate seems to have made up their mind that they are fed up the establishment and want constitutional reforms and public ownership to natural resources, no matter how the economy goes. Everyone in the pundit class, the business world and the political establishment are waiting for the Pirates to implode, but so far they have waited five months (and a couple of months before that when they rose).
The Icelandic Donald Trumps.
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politicus
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« Reply #726 on: October 03, 2015, 02:38:44 PM »

The fascinating thing with these polls is the stability. Except a few outliers almost all variation in the last five months has been within the margin of error, so basically the Icelandic party system has seemingly stabilized in a surreal scenario - for now. If there were wild swings it would be harder to take this seriously, but a third  of Icelandic electorate seems to have made up their mind that they are fed up the establishment and want constitutional reforms and public ownership to natural resources, no matter how the economy goes. Everyone in the pundit class, the business world and the political establishment are waiting for the Pirates to implode, but so far they have waited five months (and a couple of months before that when they rose).
The Icelandic Donald Trumps.

Very far from him in both style, attitude and content. I can hardly imagine any public figure in the Western world more different from Trump than Birgitta Jonsdottir.
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politicus
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« Reply #727 on: October 04, 2015, 08:51:38 AM »

New big survey (done for the Ministry of Children, Education and Equality) of living conditions for gays from ethnic minorities.

13% have been exposed to violence from family members due to sexuality, and another 20% have been threatened with violence vs. 1% of ethnically Danish gays being violently abused or threatened by family members.

20% have experienced social expulsion from their family and 16% have felt under surveillance. 33% have considered suicide within the last year.

Told parents about being gay ethnic Danes/ethnic minorities:

Mum 79%/44%

Dad 68%/31%

Despite the high "considering suicide" number the survey is in many ways good news and shows that New Danes generally have attitudes closer to ethnic Danes than the population in the countries their families originated from, but that a minority has strongly negative attitudes and behaviour. It has been criticized for not openly dealing with ethnicity and the role of Islam in its conclusions. Sort of pussy footing around the obvious. "New Danes" is a far too diverse group to treat as one entity in a survey like this (and they did ask about both ethnicity and religion).

It says that "strongly religious groups" are much more negative, discriminatory and abusive than more secular and there there is "a strong correlation" between being very religious and being Muslim, with a Spearman-test showing a coefficient between being "strongly religious" and being Muslim of 0.43, but this is omitted from the conclusion.

Not sure whether it should have been in the conclusion, but obviously always a bit stupid to imply something in such a half-assed way.
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politicus
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« Reply #728 on: October 04, 2015, 11:16:12 AM »
« Edited: October 04, 2015, 02:24:03 PM by politicus »

New Gallup poll has the Libs on lowest level in 24 years, contrary to what you might think it isnt because of their voters leaving for DPP.

There was a Norstat poll having them on 17.3% in mid-September, but Gallup is still "the big one" among DK pollsters. LA and the Alternative/Red Greens who are gaining the largest relative share, while SD and DPP are fairly stable with c. 2% down/up compared to election result.

SD 25,8 (-0.5)
Radikale 4,6 (nc)
Cons 3,5 (+0.1)
SPP 3,8 (-0.4)
LA 8,1 (+0.6)
KD 0,8 (nc)
DPP 21,5 (+0.4)
Libs 17,6 (-1.9)
Red Greens 8,3 (+0.5)
The Alternative 5,5 (+0.7)

All within the margin of error, but the Liberals had expected the election result to be their floor, and it seems they can go lower. Even without DPP gaining (much). Also unusual with Red Greens and Alternative gaining at the same time, usually it has been one up/one down.

(in reality this is a rather boring poll, but since its "historic" with the Libs 24 year low, I felt it should be in thread)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #729 on: October 04, 2015, 01:31:02 PM »

Give it time and they'll hit single digits. What a spectacularly wretched situation to be in.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #730 on: October 04, 2015, 07:35:17 PM »

Yeah, when the Liberals came second in their "bloc" they could have known they were going to be fycked, and the fact that they're governing alone, without DPP, makes things even worse. Their floor will probably be (or: become) much lower than this, just wait and see.
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ingemann
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« Reply #731 on: October 06, 2015, 03:13:53 PM »

My guess for a floor in worst case single election is around 10-12%, when they did badly in the 70-80ties that was as far as they fell. Of course the Conservative today lies below what I would say their natural floor were, and Venstre have the problem that they can more or less lose votes to all parties except SPP and the Red Greens, if they do badly.

Also I want to make a prediction, if this government last more than 2,5 year, the minister of justice (Søren Pind) won't last as long. I expect he will have a scandal which will force him to leave the post cause by either a leak, "accidental" bad adviced from his subordinate or a mix of these two things. He's looking like his making a lot of enemies in his ministry and he's not known for his long term planning or impulse control (he tend to survive through luck, talent, stubbornness and raw narcissistic charisma, but I think he have made too many enemies too fast this time).
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Lasitten
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« Reply #732 on: October 08, 2015, 07:24:10 AM »

Here you see what happens when xenophopic right-wing populist party which labels itself as "working class party without socialism" attacks the unions in the cabinet at the same time with refugee crisis.

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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #733 on: October 08, 2015, 07:35:53 AM »

Here you see what happens when xenophopic right-wing populist party which labels itself as "working class party without socialism" attacks the unions in the cabinet at the same time with refugee crisis.

Being put in an actual role of responsibility tends to be kryptonite to most xenophobic populist parties. Look at the state of Frp at the moment, or what happened to FPÖ after their participation in the Schüssel-government.

It's actually so that I wish we could hand over the reigns of government to the Sweden Democrats for a year and watch them crash and burn and destroy themselves and we could finally move on and have actual political discussions again in this country.
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ingemann
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« Reply #734 on: October 08, 2015, 08:40:21 AM »

Here you see what happens when xenophopic right-wing populist party which labels itself as "working class party without socialism" attacks the unions in the cabinet at the same time with refugee crisis.

Being put in an actual role of responsibility tends to be kryptonite to most xenophobic populist parties. Look at the state of Frp at the moment, or what happened to FPÖ after their participation in the Schüssel-government.

It's actually so that I wish we could hand over the reigns of government to the Sweden Democrats for a year and watch them crash and burn and destroy themselves and we could finally move on and have actual political discussions again in this country.

It wouldn't work, at least not yet. The True Finns or the Progress Party are a more diverse party than SD at least in policies. If you vote for SD you do it for one reason and one reason only, while you can vote for TF or PP for many other reason than immigration. As such SD only need to deliver on one point to say they have kept their promises. Of course they will likely lose a few votes, but you won't see a SD collapse. Also where would SD voters go? They want a harder line against immigration and there's no one else in Sweden delivering on that point.
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Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
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« Reply #735 on: October 08, 2015, 09:09:36 AM »

It wouldn't work, at least not yet. The True Finns or the Progress Party are a more diverse party than SD at least in policies. If you vote for SD you do it for one reason and one reason only, while you can vote for TF or PP for many other reason than immigration. As such SD only need to deliver on one point to say they have kept their promises. Of course they will likely lose a few votes, but you won't see a SD collapse. Also where would SD voters go? They want a harder line against immigration and there's no one else in Sweden delivering on that point.

SD voters aren't some zombie-like creatures. They can't eat restrictions on immigration. They can't work at restrictions of immigration. Even if it's true that people only vote for them for one reason, they still has to be successful in other areas as well. Their poor working-class voters aren't going to just accept the cuts they propose to welfare in their budgets even if they get rid of a few immigrants. Nor are previously Moderate voters going to accept bad handling of the economy.

People can vote for SD solely on a single issue because they can imagine that SD will fulfill everything they wish for, but when that bubble breaks it's much harder to vote only on the issue of immigration. Which is exactly why responsibility is kryptonite  to these sorts of parties. They are huge coaltions that unite lots of people that only have a single thing in common, immigration. When it comes time to deliver on more issues, it's just not possible for them to please all their voters, which causes them to tremble.

As to the idea that "they can't go anywhere else", it should be noted that that is equally true in Norway. All the non-governmental parties there are pro-immigration. Doesn't keep Frp from declining does it? 
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DavidB.
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« Reply #736 on: October 08, 2015, 10:09:56 AM »
« Edited: October 08, 2015, 10:20:52 AM by DavidB. »

It's actually so that I wish we could hand over the reigns of government to the Sweden Democrats for a year and watch them crash and burn and destroy themselves and we could finally move on and have actual political discussions again in this country.
The FPÖ screwed up in government badly and is now at an all-time high in the polls. The PVV caused the most right-wing government in Dutch post-WWII history to collapse (at least in people's perception) and is now at an all-time high in the polls. (And let's also remember that government cooperation doesn't necessarily have to hurt the new-right party, see DF.)

The reason that the SDs are big isn't the SDs (even though they clearly seem to do things right strategically). The reason that the SDs are big is that Sweden's immigration policy seems to cause problems in society that are relevant to people's lives. That's not going to change if the SDs screw up in government. Sure, they will probably lose badly in the next elections, but the immigration issue will continue to be politically salient as long as the current open-door policy isn't changed (and even if it is, failing integration of the people who are already in would be a fertile soil for the SDs to operate on), so even if they screw up in government, a comeback in terms of electoral success is a likely scenario. And even if the SDs "crash and burn", a new anti-immigration party would probably emerge due to the salience of the issue and the vacuum on that side of the political landscape.

Here you see what happens when xenophopic right-wing populist party which labels itself as "working class party without socialism" attacks the unions in the cabinet at the same time with refugee crisis.
I think PS' failure to prevent mass immigration is the real reason that they are declining in the polls rapidly. I read that the Finnish Muslim population will double this year. That doesn't seem to be what PS voters wished for. It seems utterly unclear in what way PS is delivering on its promises, and that is deadly to parties whose support is largely based on the sentiment that "the other parties don't deliver".
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« Reply #737 on: October 08, 2015, 10:32:32 AM »

Could PS fracture?
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ingemann
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« Reply #738 on: October 08, 2015, 03:01:05 PM »


I could answer you, it's some good point you bring up, but honestly DavidB brought most of the points up. Through there's one thing I will say again SD is not Progress Party or the True Finns, they're quite different from SD, which have more in common with the Danish Progress Party than either.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #739 on: October 08, 2015, 05:50:15 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2015, 05:52:52 PM by Helsinkian »


I can think of a couple MPs who might leave but in general the PS MPs are very afraid of standing up to chairman Soini. If a new party to the right of PS were founded, I don't think it would attract more than 3-4 MPs.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #740 on: October 08, 2015, 06:16:48 PM »

I can think of a couple MPs who might leave but in general the PS MPs are very afraid of standing up to chairman Soini. If a new party to the right of PS were founded, I don't think it would attract more than 3-4 MPs.
You mean by "attract" 3 or 4 PS MPs, or you mean they would only win a few seats in the next election? The first case I could understand, but if it's the second case, could you elaborate on that?
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #741 on: October 08, 2015, 06:48:46 PM »

I can think of a couple MPs who might leave but in general the PS MPs are very afraid of standing up to chairman Soini. If a new party to the right of PS were founded, I don't think it would attract more than 3-4 MPs.
You mean by "attract" 3 or 4 PS MPs, or you mean they would only win a few seats in the next election? The first case I could understand, but if it's the second case, could you elaborate on that?

I meant that 3-4 MPs from the current parliamentary group might switch to it.
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SNJ1985
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« Reply #742 on: October 08, 2015, 08:59:04 PM »

Finland has a party to the right of PS, the Blue and White Front. Perhaps they could gain voters from PS.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #743 on: October 08, 2015, 09:08:24 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2015, 09:21:52 PM by DavidB. »

Finland has a party to the right of PS, the Blue and White Front. Perhaps they could gain voters from PS.
One would think there should be political space for a party somewhere between the True Moderate Hero Finns/Moderate Hero Finns Party on the one hand and a sister party of f-ing Jobbik on the other hand, but you might be right.

To the Finnish posters: how likely is it that Soini will do a Wilders and make the coalition collapse if PS continues to poll very, very badly? I see that there have seldom been snap elections in Finland. If PS steps out, would that lead to new elections or would KESK and KOK include another party/other parties without new elections?
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #744 on: October 08, 2015, 09:14:50 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2015, 09:51:48 PM by Helsinkian »

Finland has a party to the right of PS, the Blue and White Front. Perhaps they could gain voters from PS.

They're not a real thing anymore. They didn't participate in the the last election, their leader endorsed a National Coalition Party candidate (lol).

On euroscepticism, there is the more radical Independence Party which is mostly a one-issue party calling for Finland to leave the EU (they got 0.5 percent in the last election). To this date, they have not presented themselves, however,  as immigration critics, focusing instead purely on the question of EU (their manifesto was pretty leftist on some issues).

To the Finnish posters: how likely is it that Soini will do a Wilders and make the coalition collapse if PS continues to poll very, very badly? I see that there have seldom been snap elections in Finland. If PS steps out, would that lead to new elections or would KESK and KOK include another party/other parties without new elections?

I'd say it's very unlikely that Soini himself would want to leave the coalition at any point. If the party were to leave, then it would probably be because of the rest of the party pressuring him to do it, if the immigration situation and other things continue to escalate and the poll numbers continue to drop.

If PS were to leave, Kesk and Kok would probably first try to get the Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats to join. They would probably accept, seeing that their opposition politics has been less confrontational than that of the leftist parties. The majority would be slim though, 101 (Finnish coalitions rarely operate on such slim majorities, though Stubb's coalition did it for the latter part of its term). Getting the Greens into some combination would be another option but that would require Kesk to make some compromises on environment issues.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #745 on: October 08, 2015, 09:33:34 PM »

I'd say it's very unlikely that Soini himself would want to leave the coalition at any point. If the party were to leave, then it would probably be because of the rest of the party pressuring him to do it, if the immigration situation and other things continue to escalate and the poll numbers continue to drop.

If PS were to leave, Kesk and Kok would probably first try to get the Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats to join. They would probably accept, seeing that their opposition politics has been less confrontational than that of the leftist parties. The majority would be slim though, 101 (Finnish coalitions rarely operate on such slim majorities, though Stubb's coalition did it for the latter part of its term). Getting the Greens into some combination would be another option but that would require Kesk to make some compromises on environment issues.
True, there is a big difference between Soini and Wilders: Soini actually gets his prestigious ministerial job out of the coalition agreement, whereas Wilders provided outside support and remained an MP. Thanks for clearing the coalition situation up Smiley Would the majority of Finns consider such a "reshuffle" without elections acceptable in this day and age, or would many insist on snap elections instead of the scenario you described?
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #746 on: October 08, 2015, 09:37:02 PM »

I think people would probably accept a reshuffle. The last snap election was in 1975, so people are used to having parliaments sit full terms.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #747 on: October 08, 2015, 09:47:26 PM »
« Edited: October 08, 2015, 09:50:27 PM by DavidB. »

I think people would probably accept a reshuffle. The last snap election was in 1975, so people are used to having parliaments sit full terms.
Interesting. Reshuffling without new elections used to be acceptable in the Netherlands as well, but not anymore since the 70s/80s. There has been no legislation on this, but political culture has simply changed: today, it would be inconceivable not to hold snap elections - but parliaments not serving full terms is normal here. Thanks for your answers.

I could answer you, it's some good point you bring up, but honestly DavidB brought most of the points up. Through there's one thing I will say again SD is not Progress Party or the True Finns, they're quite different from SD, which have more in common with the Danish Progress Party than either.
In what sense?
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« Reply #748 on: October 09, 2015, 05:41:54 AM »


I could answer you, it's some good point you bring up, but honestly DavidB brought most of the points up. Through there's one thing I will say again SD is not Progress Party or the True Finns, they're quite different from SD, which have more in common with the Danish Progress Party than either.

I don't entirely disagree with David either. Obviously I don't say that SD would disappear forever. Most parties have an ability to regain support after a bad period in government and a spectacular election loss. Though it would limit the problem for some time. Tongue

I also agree as far as the Progress Party goes, they are a different thing compared to SD. But what is PS except stricter immigration, anti-EU, and anti mandatory Swedish in Finnish schools? Besides the mandatory Swedish thing, those are the exact same pillars as SD stands on. I doubt that there is anyone who really votes for Soini except for those issues. And I'm aware that PS casts itself as the defenders of the welfare state and the working man and what not., but so does SD. That's (as you noted) hardly the reason their voters vote for them.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #749 on: October 09, 2015, 06:11:56 AM »
« Edited: October 09, 2015, 06:28:33 AM by Helsinkian »

I also agree as far as the Progress Party goes, they are a different thing compared to SD. But what is PS except stricter immigration, anti-EU, and anti mandatory Swedish in Finnish schools? Besides the mandatory Swedish thing, those are the exact same pillars as SD stands on. I doubt that there is anyone who really votes for Soini except for those issues. And I'm aware that PS casts itself as the defenders of the welfare state and the working man and what not., but so does SD. That's (as you noted) hardly the reason their voters vote for them.

There are actually plenty of people who voted for PS because of welfare issues and rural issues. Take for example, the party's strongest municipality, Kihniö, where the party got 53 percent in 2011 and 48 percent in 2015. Almost all of that is support for a former Rural Party (Finns Party's predecessor) politician Lea Mäkipää who was elected Finns Party MP in 2011 and who hardly even speaks about immigration but rather about welfare issues and services in the rural ares. Furthermore, in the Kihniö council the local Finns Party group actually supported establishing a refugee accomodation centre in the municipality (even if they qualified it by saying that they wanted to choose what kind of refugees are coming).

Another example is Rene Hursti, a councilman in Helsinki. While he does talk of immigration as well, his primary reason for fame is his and his family's involvement in organising the city's soup kitchens. He quit the party in September, citing the government's cuts in welfare as the reason.

Also consider the fact that the party's communication director is a former Social Democrat who spent nearly  four decades in various leading positions in the trade unions. When he defected to the Finns Party in 2010 he said that the biggest reason for that was SDP's embracement of Green values which he saw as threatening traditional industry jobs.
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