The Great Nordic Thread

[Diouf]

Could the blocs start to break down? I highly doubt Radikale Venstre would want to enter an SD government with strixt rules on migrants; nor would LA want to support a government with a DPP inspired economic plan.

Well, right now it looks unthinkable that there will be a Social Democrat - Social Liberal coalition; with the Social Democrats perhaps even the most opposed since it would completely shatter the credibility of the very hard-on-migration turn they have taken. Also, there might be a bigger possibility to make some economic deals with the left wing + DPP now than previously. But that the next red government would most likely be a Social Democrat one-party government, does not really destroy the blocs. It's not like a right-wing government would be more attractive to support with regards to refugees for the Social Liberals.

I don't see it happen with regards to the DPP either. If they open up for the possibility to support a Social Democrat government or the other way around, then that would shake up the blocs. However, that would most likely lead to a mass exodus of voters from the DPP and require support from at least one more party, and probably two, which would be hard to find. The DPP could cause a stir in the blue bloc with regard to the government formation, but I think that would only really happen if they are around the same size/bigger as the three other blue bloc parties combined. Then the DPP might demand to lead the government with their programme, but the other blue bloc parties would be hesistant due to their economic programme. Until then, I don't think the DPP would make such demands as they would not have even have a majority inside the blue bloc.

[Diouf]

Sorry to derail the topic a bit, but the vehicle tax was 180% of the purchase price in Denmark? That seems really really high to an outside observer; is it calculated differently there than in other countries? Also, I would have thought that for a largely populist party like the DPP that a measure to reduce that sort of tax (perhaps seen as a nanny state, environmental tax) would be popular with their voting base.

It was and is indeed really really high. Much higher than all other countries. Below a comparison with other European countries before the tax reduction.



It is calculated in the following way:
You start out with the price without taxes, then you add the 25 % standard sales tax. Then, there is a 105.5 % car tax on costs up to 82,800 DKK, and a 150 % (previously 180 %) car tax on costs over 82,800 DKK. You can than withdraw a few thousand DKK if the car has the newest safety equipment and can drive many km per liter gasoline.
So a standard new car to the purchase price of 106,400 DKK will get a sales tax of 26,600 DKK and a car tax of 116,985 DKK, and end up costing 249,985 DKK.

And that is after the reduction of the car tax. But as it can be seen, the rate is only reduced for costs above a certain price, which means that the cheapest cars will not become much cheaper. It don't think the DPP voters as a whole are very opposed to tax reductions, especially since they have received a lot of former Liberal voters. A poll showed that 32 % of the DPP voters were in favour of reducing the top income tax rate, which only 20 % of the Social Liberal voters supported, despte the DPP being against and the Social Liberals being in favour. So one should be careful to see the DPP as too much of a Social Democrat party voterwise, despite tones from their leaders that are somewhat different. However, they do still have a significant number of voters with lower incomes, who were previously Social Democrats. Those voters might be dissatisfied with the Budget, that also included housing tax freezes and a cash benefit cap, which could be seen as a take from the poor to give to the rich. In addition, the initial budget compromise included cuts to the housing benefits for some pensioners, but this was extraordinarly taken out of the budget after DPP pressure.
So overall, it is certainly true that many DPP voters will like or at least not be bothered by this tax reduction. However, the crucial DPP-Social Democrat swing voters are probably not that much in favour, which also explains why the DPP is reluctant to agree to reducing the top income tax rate. Something that will be negotiated as a part of the tax reform, which is due in the fall.

[Diouf]

The government's most recent migration and refugee bill was passed today with a large majority. The Liberal government was supported by the Social Democrats, the DPP, the Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives. Against was the Red-Green Alliance, the Alternative, the Social Liberals, the SPP and three Social Democrat rebels (Mette Gjerskov, Daniel Toft Jakobsen, Yildiz Akdogan). Not yet clear whether this will have any repercussions for the three. As previously noted, Gjerskov is a former Minister while the two others are basically unknown backbenchers.

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http://www.thelocal.dk/20160126/heres-how-denmarks-new-immigration-bill-will-affect-you

[Diouf]

Agricultural tensions in governing majority

The relationship in the governing majority in the Danish Parliament has become increasingly tense in recent days. The Prime Minister has openly threathened the Conservatives with new elections if they insist on sacking the Minister for Environment and Food Eva Kjer Hansen. The most probable outcome is probably still that the Minister resigns voluntarily, but the case has already exposed a significant lack of confidence between the blue parties.

The Conservatives has declared that that they no longer have confidence in the the Minister for Environment and Food as they believe that she has provided them with misleading numbers regarding the environmental impact of an Agricultural package agreed upon by the Blue Bloc. A package that the Conservatives will still support. As the Red Bloc of course also stated that they do not have confidence in the minister, the "normal procedure" will be for the minister to resign voluntarily and the PM will appoint a new one. However, this time the PM instead declared that the Conservative decision has caused him to seriously wonder whether the whole government can continue. The Liberal Alliance and the DPP also supports and praises the Minister for Environment and Food, and claims that the Conservative spokesperson has been absent in negotiations and unable to understand the documents.

The Red Bloc have declared an official vote of no confidence for the Minister for Environment and Food which will be on the agenda for Wednesday. The Conservatives have been trying to brand themselves as the "green party" in the Blue Bloc, but at the same time they want to support good conditions for the Agricultural industry. So they decided that if they forced the minister to go while still supporting the Agricultural package, they could show their green credentials while supporting the industry. The PM has so far stated that it is more likely with new elections than he would ask his minister to resign. Instead, he has called for negotiations with the three blue parties about a deal which could change the Conservatives' mind regarding the minister by making the Agricultural package slightly greener.

As I started with, the most likely option is probably still that the Minister for Environment and Food at some point before Wednesday resigns voluntarily. However, it would be rather late for that to happen, and would make the Liberals look like a very weak government. It would be rahter humiliating for the PM after all his sabre-rattling, even if the Minister states that this is her very own independent decision to resign. If the Conservatives in some way changes their mind and suddenly has confidence in the minister again, then they would be the humiliated part, almost no matter how many compensating green measures they get. If the Conservatives force her to leave via a vote in Parliament, and the PM does not call an election, he will also look weak. And if there is an election, it is quite likely that the Red Bloc will come into power. The opinion polls are 50/50, but with support from Greenland and the Faroe Islands, that is Red Bloc Victory. Also an election called on the basis on divisions in Blue Bloc would make it even better for the Red Bloc. The Conservatives are hovering around 3 %, and could fall below the 2 % threshold if the other Blue Bloc parties reject further cooperation with them, thereby making them obsolete. The Conservative leader is elected in Western Jutland, so even if they just pass the threshold, he could be out if widely seen as anti-agriculture. The Liberals are also around 2% down at 17,5 % in the polls, and the PM would most likely lose his jobs as both PM and Liberal leader with an election. So neither should really want an election.

[Diouf]

Farmer-son to calm agricultural tensions - MEP called home as Minister for Higher Education and Science

The PM has announced how he will replace the recently resigned Minister for Environment and Food Eva Kjer Hansen. Esben Lunde Larsen, a farmer-son from Western Jutland, who has been Minister for Higher Education and Science until now becomes Minister for Environment and Food while the Liberals´ now only MEP, Ulla Tørnæs, will come back to become Minister for Higher Education and Science. Tørnæs has previously been Minister for Education and Minister for Foreign Aid. Morten Løkkegaard will return to the European Parliament to replace her there; and he will in turn be replaced by Jakob Engel-Schmidt as an MP.

Lunde Larsen is generally regarded as a talented young (37) politician, but his first months have been plagued by accusations of plagiarizing, primarily himself, in his Ph.D. and attacks due to his strong Christian faith. Additionally, he has been in charge of plans to cut university spending, which has led to predictable outrage from especially student organizations, which are well-trained in arranging protests. Tørnæs also has strong links to agriculture as she is married to a pig farmer. She is experienced, but not very charismatic. She failed in her attempt to become mayor in Holstebro after the 2013 local elections, and led a less than impressive campaign as lead candidate for the Liberals in the 2014 European elections.

Lunde Larsen has been a big proponent of the new agricultural package, so there will certainly not be a new line. When the agricultural package was adopted, he wrote "It is amazing that we for the first time in decades have had a break with the environmental tyranny, which Danish agriculture has been subject to by the political and the enviromentalorganizational left wing. It is a good day for Denmark, agriculture and the environment". This is not neccessarily a problem, the agricultural package was just accepted by a majority in Parliament, but if the Conservatives become even more bullish on their green branding, then there might be problems like with Kjer Hansen, although he will probably be more careful to keep better relations with the other spokepersons.

[Diouf]

Who should be the next Liberal leader?

A poll by Norstat for Altinget shows that deputy leader and Foreign Minister Kristian Jensen is not the most popular choice to succeed Lars Løkke Rasmussen as Liberal leader. Only 17 % of the Liberal voters preferred him, while 34 % wants Group Leader Søren Gade and 28 % Minister of Immigration Inger Støjberg. 6 % prefers Minister of Justice Søren Pind. Løkke has not made any comments signalling that he will resign, but his low personal approval ratings and the Liberals' poor polling numbers make the question float around. This was intensified after Jensen's recent comments that his goal is to become leader, even if it requires an contested election, unlike the last two times where the deputy leader have become leaders without a contest.

Jensen could perhaps have become leader in 2014, where a new range of scandals and a terrible EP election results plagued Løkke Rasmussen. Parts of the party was ready to remove him, but at the last second he and Jensen stroke a deal to keep the peace and involve Jensen more in the leadership of the party. Before that deal, there had been a dramatic course of events with strong rumours that Løkke would resign, but then support Gade in a contested election against Jensen.

Gade is a staunch Løkke supporter, and would be seen as a straight continuation of his line, but he has stronger approval ratings, and is from Western Jutland, down to earth and therefore seen to be more in line with the party members. He would fit very well with the current political line in the Liberals with moving state jobs away from Copenhagen, more emphasis on agriculture than environment, and more options to build attractions close to the coasts. Unsurprisingly, he is therefore least favoured by the Alternative voters, but generally the most popular. 25 % of all voters see him as the best successor.

Støjberg is currently Minister of Immigration, and personifies the tough line on that question. However, she is often more focused on emotion that substance in explaining her policy choices, and I think many in the parliamentary group would be afraid to see her in a wide-ranging policy debate one-on-one with the Social Democrat leader. She is the preferred successor among DPP-voters.

Jensen is also from Western Jutland, but is seen as a more pro-European, pro-Internationalist person than Gade. However, his pious life-style and his activities in local sports clubs still gives him a folksier vibe than Løkke and his expenses scandals, but his Foreign Minister role and pro-EU stances might blur this kind of appeal. After his last minute pull-out from the battle versus Løkke in 2014, many see him as not strong enough to be the leader. However, with his current position as deputy leader and his decision not to throw the party into further chaos in 2014, I still see him as the frontrunner. Best liked among Red-Green, Alternative and SPP voters, however, which tells a bit about why he might not be the perfect match to the Liberal members. The left-wingers probably hope that he will be a bit less tough on migration, refugees etc, but I wouldn't expect any significant change there.

Pind was one of the young liberal lions who were shut out during Fogh's reign, but was promoted once Løkke became leader. He is quite tough on crime as Minister of Justice, which has made him rather popular. However, he has a somewhat weird personality and strikes a strange note a bit too often. I think too many would see him as too big of a risk to take.

My preferred choice would probably be Jensen, and then hopefully Sophie Løhde as the new Deputy Leader, but I could easily live with Gade as well.

[Diouf]

An image to illustrate the Social Democrat strategy for winning back power in Denmark; win back voters from DPP and Liberals by adopting a very tough line on immigration and justice policies, but being perceived as more competent and economically fair. The right-turn on immigration will cause voters to leave the party to join those red bloc parties with a laxer migration policy, which will not hurt the bloc.
The numbers are percentage of the total electorate. Numbers are from Gallup and Altinget.dk

[Diouf]

It is now no longer only voters which leave the Social Democrats to join the Alternative. In the first defection of this parliament, the Social Democrat MP Pernille Schnoor joins the Alternative. She believes that the Social Democrats are no longer humanistic enough in refugee and immigration questions and denounces the party's former Finance Minister Bjarne Corydon's comments about making Denmark a so-called competition state instead of a welfare state. The 49-year old Schnoor was very much a quiet backbencher; she didn't even have any spokesperson roles. This is her first term in parliament; previously she taught brand ethos and marketing management at Copenhagen Business School.

[Diouf]

New Red-Green frontwoman



The Red-Green Alliance has changed their political spokesperson today as 32-year old Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen (left) resigned from that post and was replaced by 31-year old Pernille Skipper (right). The Red-Green Alliance does not have a party leader, so the political spokesperson is the party's most important post; the one who participates in party leader debates etc. This change has been widely anticipated because Schmidt-Nielsen won't be able to run for parliament at the next election due to the party's rotation principle. In fact, if the 2015 election had been a few weeks later, she would not have been able to run in that election.

Schmidt-Nielsen emerged on the scene in 2007, when she ran for parliament for the first time. The Red-Green Alliance was struggling to hit the threshold, but Schmidt-Nielsen was considered a great talent and received the party's safest seat in Copenhagen and was asked to participate in the final leader's debate. Still unknown to most at the time, Conservative leader Bendt Bendtsen famously asked her to bring him some coffee believing she was a runner. After the election, she soon became a household name, and her great abilities led the party to, for the first time, choose a de facto leader in 2009, the political spokesperson role. As SPP started moving to the right to prepare to enter government, the party suddenly had a wide path to play in. In 2011, the party tripled its seats from 4 to 12, and she received the second-highest number of personal votes (47.000). However, the centre-left government was clearly a disappointment for Schmidt-Nielsen and the party, who was relatively often reduced to outside critic as the government made important economic agreements with the centre-right parties. It did look like the government's unpopularity would at least give them an incredibly good election result with polls showing them above 11 %. But as the 2015 election neared, the Social Democrats rebounded in the polls, the Alternative emerged as a competitor and some of their voters stayed at home due to disappointment with the red bloc's time in government ("It doesn't even matter whether red or blue bloc will win"). So they only grew a bit to 7.8 % and gained two seats, while Schmidt-Nielsen's personal votes even dropped slightly to 40.000, still enough for third-best. It will surprise me if she does not continue her political involvement, perhaps most likely as a candidate in the 2017 local elections or 2019 European elections.

Pernille Skipper is a law graduate. She was heavily involved in student politics at both gymnasium (high school) and university level. She entered parliament in 2011 as lead candidate in Funen. She became spokesperson on justice and social issues, where she quickly established herself as a well-known speaker. She has played a key-role for the no-side in the two EU referendums since then, and her growing popularity and visibility has long made her a logical choice to replace Schmidt-Nielsen. She received more than 11.000 personal votes in the 2015 election, the second-highest Red-Green figure. As the party's political spokesperson, she will be the lead candidate in Copenhagen at the next election, where I think she will have good chances to repeat Schmidt-Nielsen's high voting figures. In the latest polling average, the party has grown to 8.8 %.

[Diouf]

Two other significant news today.

As a response to the no in the EU opt-in referendum in December, the Liberal government has made an agreement about the way forward. The agreement means that Denmark will apply for so-called parallel deals in three areas: Europol, Eurojust and Passenger Name Record. They have made a deal with the Social Democrats, the DPP, the Liberal Alliance, the Social Liberals and the Conservatives. The government wanted to apply for a parallel deal to join the common investigation cooperation, but since the DPP and the Liberal Alliance was opposed, this was not included. It has been important for the government to include those two no-parties from December in the agreement, so it doesn't look like yes-parties just proceeding with integration despite a no-vote. The otherwise pro-EU SPP and Alternative are not in the deal, because they do not like an agreement that only includes these kinds of crime and justice measures, where they might also have some concerns about privacy etc. They would have liked to join common migration and refugee policies as well. The Social Liberals probably share those concerns, but as the most pro-EU party and obsessed with "having influence" and being part of broad agreements, they joined the agreement anyway. The Red-Green Alliance is the only party opposed to EU-membership, so of course they are not a part of the deal; anyway they would probably have shared SPP and Alternative's concerns.

The 38-year old SPP group leader (chief whip-ish) Jonas Dahl retires as an MP to become the leader of a public hospital in Randers. He was Minister of Taxation for 1,5 months in the previous government just before the SPP left the government. He was among the few from the new, young SPP-guard that did not leave the party after its decision to leave the government. He will be replaced by 54-year old Kirsten Normann Andersen, leader of the Aarhus division of FOA, the Union of Public Employees. For a party in trouble, which is already somewhat seen as a one-woman party at the moment, it is bad news that one of the other known faces leaves politics. Normann is not very well-known, but she must have a good network and might improve SPP's chances to hold on to and improve their standing among their key group of public employees.

[Diouf]

The Alternative feeling

[Diouf]

The Alternative feeling

the alternative feeling is "404 not found"? not surprising for me...

Bah
I can't seem to find a site that will make videos to gifs, and let the gif stay there.
The link to the dancing session from the Alternative congress is here: https://www.facebook.com/tv2nyhederne/videos/1480463815302587/
Further help to show people the difference between the Alternative and the Red-Green Alliance, who vote together a lot in parliament. The Red-Green Alliance is way too serious and marxist to even contemplate this kind of thing at a party congress.

"404 not found" could have been the code for the Alternative performance in yesterday's prime time interview. Their leader Uffe Elbæk, the first dancer above, said that Sweden had reached their limit in terms of asylum seekers, while arguing that Denmark should cancel all its recent tightening of asylum and migration laws and take a much bigger share of refugees. Carrying out these policies while everybody else is further tightening their asylum laws would of course mean that Denmark would be the most attractive destination if a new stream of refugees arrived to Europe. Once the questioner pointed out this incoherence, he stumbled completely, and afterwards complained loudly about the questioner to different media. Not that it will probably make a big difference to their voters...

[Diouf]

Lars Hedegaard has now joined Nye Borgerlige (the New Right) so it seems that the far right is coalescing there, which will increase their chances of crossing the threshold. They also have five councillors in four different municipalities now as members from other right wing parties or local lists have defected to them. They have also attracted another somewhat famous person from the Free Press Society, Aia Fog, a former Social Democrat and DPP member. The party have around 1.000 members, and according to the latest news, they have collected around half of the necessary 20.000 signatures to be on the ballot at the next election.

Politicus' description of Lars Hedegaard from before the 2015 election, where he considered running as an independent. He is no longer the chairman of the Free Press Society.

Lars Hedegaard. Chairman of the Free Press Society, former editor in chief of the leftist daily Information and member of the executive committee of the Left Socialists Lars Hedegaard is trying to get elected as an indie (which hasn't happened since comedian Jacob Haugaard did it in 1994 on an anti-politics joke campaign). Hedegaard is one of Denmarks leading Islamophobes and the victim of a much discussed murder attempt (the Turks captured the terrorist and then exchanged him to al-Nusrah in a shady deal..).

[Diouf]

The Danish Parliament has now gone on summer recess, and the government managed to agree on a number of deals in this last week.
As a response to TV and radio documentaries about the teaching of radical islam in a number of mosques, the government has agreed upon a so-called anti-radicalisation package with the Social Democrats, the DPP and the Conservatives. One of the most controversial parts is the introduction of a list of non-EU religious preachers who can be banned from entering the country due to their anti-democratic statements. Additionally, encouraging murder, rape, polygamy, violence etc in religious teaching will be criminal. Some of these things were already criminal, others murky and some fully legal. While the agreed package does less to prevent free speech than the original proposal, the package has still caused criticism for restricting free speech from the Liberal Alliance and a number of journalists, authors etc, while the other Red Bloc parties see it as more Muslim-bashing.
The government has made an agreement with the Social Democrats and the DPP that higher education will no longer be free if you already have an education on the same or a higher level. You can apply for exemptions due to health issues, if you haven't used your education for the last five years or if there is a severe lack in society of people with a certain education.
Finally, the government agreed on a new gymnasie (high school) reform with the Social Democrats, the DPP, the Liberal Alliance, the Social Liberals, the SPP and the Conservatives. The main discussion point has been whether and how much the grade demands for going to gymnasie should be raised. The Alternative and the Red-Green Alliance left negotiations as they did not want any demands. The Liberal Alliance and the DPP wanted the toughest demands, while the Red Bloc parties only wanted demands to be on the same low level as for the vocational educations as anything else would be snobbery. The agreement ended up with a complex model regarding different grades, but the end result means that the grade demands are raised, so that 9 % fewer would go to gymnasie based on the current students. However, some of those with too low grades will be able to apply via additional tests and interviews, and teachers in primary schools might raise grades to allow some students to go to gymnasie, so in reality the reduction will probably be less than 9 %. Many other measures are basically a repeal of the 2005 reform, which is largely seen as failed. Less focus on interdiscplinary activities and methods, more focus on the basics in each subject, much less different course combinations so there are less creative/easier routes through, and everybody should have math on at least the medium level.

Finally, the Berlingske polling average here almost a year after the 2015 election (compared to 2015)

The Social Democrats 25.7 % (- 0.7 %)
The Social Liberals 4.7 (+ 0.1)
The Conservatives 3.1 (- 0.3)
The SPP 4.3 (+ 0.1)
The Liberal Alliance 7.9 (+ 0.4)
The DPP 19.6 (- 1.5)
The Liberals 18.1 (- 1.4)
The Red-Green Alliance 8.8 (+ 1.0)
The Alternative 7.2 ( + 2.4)

The Red Bloc leads 89-86 in terms of seats according to the average. The Social Democrats have lost voters to the Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative, but has gained enough from the DPP and the Liberals to almost make up for it. The Social Liberals and the SPP have not picked up many of the lost Social Democrats, perhaps due to both of them trying to look like somewhat responsible parties. The Conservatives have not picked up any dissatisfied Liberal or DPP voters, and when Nye Borgerlige (New Right) collects enough signatures to be on the ballot, we could very well start seeing polls with them below the 2 % threshold.

[Diouf]

The government has agreed upon a few additional deals. Denmark will buy 27 new F-35 Joint Strike Fighters for 56 billion dkr (7.50 billion euro). The agreement was made with the Social Democrats, the DPP, the Liberal Alliance and the Social Liberals. The Red-Green Alliance and the Alternative are of course not a part of any deal providing funding for the military. The Conservatives and the SPP were in the talks for long, but left negotiations as the number of fighters was deemed too low and too high respectively.
A new building law was agreed with the Social Democrats, the DPP and the Conservatives. The government had relatively high ambitions, but in the end the outcome was quite watered down as they wanted the Social Democrats included to make the law last. The government wanted it to be easier to allow buildings in coastal areas, for example by making 15 new commercial attractions. They also wanted to remove a possibility for the municipalities to demand that 25 % of housing in a new local area plan should be social housing as it is believed to disencourage private enterprise. However, both of these plans were rejected due to Social Democrat opposition. Some of the things they did get through was the possibility to build bigger supermarkets in cities (up to 5000 Sqm), and allow current private residents in coastal areas to change their garden without applying for permission (put up swings, terraces etc.). The Liberal Alliance left negotiations as they believed it did not liberalize regulations enough, while all the other Red Bloc partied refused to agree to any of it as it was deemed to hurtful for nature and the environment.

[Diouf]

DPP now says that they will go into government after the next election if they get a similar result as in 2015 and there is still a blue bloc majority. DPP leader Thulelsen Dahl says that there is no problem in still supporting the Liberal Løkke Rasmussen as PM in such a case.

Their Foreign Policy spokesperson Søren Espersen said today that Denmark should follow Britain out of the EU. It is not completely clear yet that this is the official position as there have been quite some back and forward on this topic from different leading members of the party. However, advocating a Danish exit was always the logical solution in such a case, since a clear majority of the party's voters would be in favour of that, and because of the threat from the Nye Borgerlige (New Right) who clearly advocate Denmark leaving the EU. Perhaps the DPP will put this in their manifesto for the next general election. It seems somewhat unlikely that a majority in parliament would accept a referendum soon, but it is hard to predict a post-Brexit world. The public pressure for a referendum might be too big, but I guess most politicians from the pro-EU parties would at least recommend waiting and see what the British end up with.

[Diouf]

MP Aleqa Hammond, former Greenlandic Prime Minister, excluded from Siumut after another expenses scandal



One of the two Greenlandic MPs, Aleqa Hammond, has been excluded by her party Siumut after she was found to have used her parliamentary credit card on private expenses. The amount used is not gigantic, 13 000dkr (1 750 euro), but due to her history of fraud and expenses scandals, her party Siumut has decided to exclude her. They have stated that they wish for her to resign from parliament, but she states that she will stay as an Independent MP.

In 1994, working as a regional coordinator for Greenland tourism, she knowingly used a blocked credit card to cover a couple of hotel bills and was convicted of fraud. In 2008, as Greenlandic Minister of Finance and Foreign Affairs, she drunkly ran away from a taxa bill. However, the biggest case by far happened during her reign as Greenlandic PM from 2013 to 2014. She used 106 363 dkr (14 250 euros) of parliamentary expenses to pay for non-work related airline tickets for herself and hotel costs for her family. She had to resign as PM after this case. In 2015, she was Siumut's lead candidate in the elections to the Danish parliament, and was elected with 3 745 votes, the highest number of personal votes in Greenland.

[Diouf]

Seems like the migration debate is splitting the Swedish Liberals.

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http://sverigesradio.se/sida/artikel.aspx?programid=2054&artikel=6516577

[Diouf]

The governing Blue Bloc in Denmark is caught up in a lot of internal quabbling at the moment. The Liberal Alliance has played tough for several weeks, demanding that the top income tax rate is reduced by five percent for everybody, so that earnings above a million dkr are included as well, unlike the government's proposal. If they don't get that, they say that they will take down the government. A really weird ultimatum, since a new election would make it at best no more likely that the top rate is reduced somewhat, and most likely would just lead to a Social Democrat government. There is no way near a majority in parliament for reducing the top tax rate, and certainly not for incomes above a million. So if any top tax rate reduction will happen, it will in all likelyhood be a lower one than that proposed by the government.

The DPP has now grown so tired of the Liberal Alliance, that they have said that there will be no more negotiations about the government's 2025 plan before the Liberal Alliance withdraws its ultimatum. Relatively smart move by the DPP in that it captures the public mood very well; there is of course no majority in the public for these top tax rate reductions and most people are tired of hearing about the Liberal Alliance's top tax demands. I expected the Liberal Alliance to back down as quietly as possible from their demand at some point during the negotiations, probably at the very end when a deal was made. But now DPP shines all the light on LA, so either they will be publicly humiliated by withdrawing their demand or they will take down the government due to failing to hit an impossible goal, and instead bring to power a red government.

I think, the DPP is the only party in the Blue Bloc that might have some interest in an election now. It could manifest them as the biggest party in the Blue Bloc by winning that position for the second time in a row and they would no longer have to support PM Løkke Rasmussen who is unpopular among DPP voters. But still, there is 2.5 years left of the government's term, and despite them not getting as much influence as hoped for, it is not certain that they will get more influence with a Social Democrat government. So I still believe that the logical thing for the Blue Bloc parties would be to calm down, and come together, but the main players do not seem to have a very good chemistry, so it can't be ruled out that there will be a premature election.

Short Reuters story her: http://www.reuters.com/article/us-denmark-politics-idUSKCN11P0SM

[Diouf]

New Right has collected enough signatures to run



The new Danish far-right party Nye Borgerlige (New Right) has collected the 20.000 signatures which enables them to run in the next general election. Now they only need a few administrative details, and to get their preferred letter, D, approved. Then the pollsters should start including them then, and we can start to gauge their electoral potential. I think they will have quite good chances to pass the 2% threshold. They are basically like the old Fremskridtspartiet (Progress Party) 2.0; very right wing on both economy, EU and immigration. The last subject is unsurprisingly the most prominent topic for them; as their three most important issues party leader Pernille Vermund mentions suspending the possibility to get asylum in Denmark, withdrawing from the refugee and human right conventions, and stop all payments of any public benefits to all immigrants. On the EU, they predictably want a referendum, where they will support Denmark leaving the EU. On economy, they would like to reduce or remove most taxes, but still say that the weakest should be supported, though they don't specify. Mostly the way to finance all the tax cuts is due to the all the money that would be saved from not paying to immigrants.

They already have around 2 000 members and 8 councillors. Mostly the personel seems to come from the Liberal Alliance and the DPP, but in some ways the might be able to draw voters from all the right wing parties. From the DPP, they can attract some of the former Progress Party members and others, who have accepted centrist or even centre-leftist economic policies due to their tough immigration and EU policies. There might even be those that simply believes that the DPP has become too soft, and has not get enough of their policies through with the blue majority. In LA, politicus has previously described the small pockets of far-right thought, and there definitively are some who thinks they are not Eurosceptic enough, they just suggested that they might recommend a yes in a new and somewhat more restrictive EU justice opt-in referendum, and focus too little on the problem of immigration, even if their policies are quite tough, e.g. a two-year asylum stop. Party leader Pernille Vermund is a former Conservative, and received 2 000 personal votes in Northern Zealand for them in the 2015 election, so there could be some potential for attracting Conservative voters as well. Many of the voters wanting more extreme policies have probably already left the party, but even small losses of voters are significant for a party that recently polled only 2.1%. Finally, the Liberals are currently the only government party, so there is perhaps also some potential for attracting some dissatisfied voters from there.

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Today, the New Right had its first press conference after collecting the signatures. To the left is party leader Pernille Vermund and to the right deputy leader Peter Seier Christensen, whose brother is the CEO of Saxo Bank who for long was the primary funder of the Liberal Alliance.
They said that they would only support a PM if he accepted their three key demands; stopping the possibility for getting asylum in Denmark, that after two years foreigners should not be able to get any benefits from the state, and all criminal foreigners should be expelled after their first sentence. So if that holds, then the only PM they could potentially support would be a DPP one, although even the DPP might not fulfil it all completely at the moment.

The party wants to remove islam from the public space, which means closing all mosques, removing halal meat, making it illegal to wear muslim clothing like burqaes, veils, headscarfes etc. They stated the headscarf would only be illegal for muslims, and was a bit wrongfooted when asked what if a woman wears it and states that she is not a muslim. After not answering a few times, the response was that it would be "a specific judgement". All of these changes would of course require changing the Danish Constitution with regards to freedom of religion, which is not exactly an easy process.

They want to leave the EU; it is interesting whether they will push the DPP to take this firm position as well. The DPP generally talks about reforming the EU, but not quitting it, although of course in practice they reject every single EU proposal and campaign for no in all EU referendums, even on topics like the common patent, which they supported until it became a public issue. The DPP is more less able to match almost anything the New Right comes up with on immigration and islam, but this question of EU membership is quite a significant difference. It is very possible that the DPP will try to match that by suggesting clearly to leave the EU as well. Then they can claim to be equal to them on immigration and EU policies, while being much more socially responsible. A strategy they already seem to be employing.

They want to lower taxes significantly, but, unlike on the immigration area, they seem quite focused on not looking to extreme. Questions was asked to an internal economic policy memo in the party, which suggests removing the public pensions and only allowing persons to get cash benefits for eight months, after that no state benefits at all. The memo has caused some of the former DPPers, including two councillors, to leave the party again, as they had apparently only read the parts about being tougher on immigration and EU, but not about the very right wing economic policy. However, when confronted with the memo, the party leaders said that it was not their economic policy, and that is was something written by someone not in the party.

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The party wants to remove islam from the public space, which means closing all mosques, removing halal meat, making it illegal to wear muslim clothing like burqaes, veils, headscarfes etc. They stated the headscarf would only be illegal for muslims, and was a bit wrongfooted when asked what if a woman wears it and states that she is not a muslim. After not answering a few times, the response was that it would be "a specific judgement". All of these changes would of course require changing the Danish Constitution with regards to freedom of religion, which is not exactly an easy process.

That is pretty radical. For advocating these same policies, the PVV has been excluded by other parties on the Dutch right. I understand the Danish system works differently, but would Venstre, the Conservatives and the Liberal Alliance rule out any type of government cooperation with D?

Government cooperation in the shape of creating a coalition government is not on the table, but they would probably accept them as parliamentary support to a government if that was offered. Most of what they say is not that far from what the DPP has said previously, although the DPP now mostly try to propose laws that are not clearly in violation of the Constitution, e.g. two days ago they proposed a ban on "religious headwear" in schools.  A Liberal spokesperson today said that the New Right's ideas were not a view that would be supported by his party or even shared the same view of humans, but that "no seats smell worse than others" in connection with a possible majority.
However, at least Venstre (Liberals) and the Conservatives will not accept the demands the New Right has made for supporting a PM, so if they stick to those demands, then the party will de facto be isolated as it will not be part of a governing majority.

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Three early polls suggest the chances for the New Right are as good as expected, although it is still very early. The polls are all made yesterday on a day with lots of attention for the party, and maybe before some, especially former DPP, voters look closer at their economic policies.

YouGov for Metroxpress gives them 4.3%
Megafon for TV2 and Politiken gives them 4.9%
Gallup for Berlingske gives them 2.1%

The voters primarily come from DPP, LA and the Liberals in that order, although the shares differ from pollster to pollster since it is very few actual respondents we are dealing with.
The New Right's entrance should make it even less likely that any of the Blue Bloc parties want an early election, and therefore make it more likely that they will reach some kind of agreement on a 2025 plan, which the government has proposed. Although, of course I did not really see many advantages of an election for them before, so it is perhaps marginal how much the incentives have changes for them.

Each poll's description of where the New Right's voters come from. Again, remember the very low number of respondents, particularly for the Gallup poll:

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Some nice pictures from the opening of Parliament today from Thomas Lekfeldt/Scanprix for Altinget.dk:



Speaker Pia Kjærsgaard (DF) welcoming the queen, those to her right are the deputy speakers.



Two of the grand old persons in Danish politics. To the left, Mogens Lykketoft (S), MP since 1981, Finance Minister 93-00, Foreign Minister 00-01, party leader 02-05, just finished one-year term as President of the United Nations General Assembly. To the right, Marianne Jelved (R) MP since 1987, Minister of Economic Affairs 93-01, party leader 90-07.



Minister of immigration Inger Støjberg (V)



Leaders of the three biggest parties. Kristian Thulelsen Dahl (DF) to the left, PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen (V) in the middle, Mette Frederiksen (S) to the right.



Rasmus Jarlov (K) photographed with the two Greenlandic MPs; to the left Aaja Chemnitz Larsen (IA) and to the right Aleqa Hammond (Independent).



The republican members enter parliament after the royals have arrived in their box, so they avoid having to rise for them. They are MPs from the non-Social Democrat left wing parties.



The painting behind the speaker's chair is being repaired, so while the repair is going on, Speaker Pia Kjærsgaard decided to put up a big Danish flag.



The main media interest was about the Liberal Alliance leader Anders Samuelsen, who continues to play hardball about his demands for top tax rate reductions. Yesterday, he said that he should have taken down the government already in the end of August, when it presented a 2025 plan that did not include a 5% top tax rate reduction for everybody, it excluded those earning more than a million dkr. Maintained his demand that this reduction for everybody should be agreed before christmas, if not he will take down the government.

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High-profile DPP MEP Morten Messerschmidt again in the spotlight for misusing EU-funds. This time it might hurt the DPP a bit more than his last scandal because the story has dominated political coverage for more than a week now, with new small stories emerging each day of how EU-funds were misused and because the DPP top seems more involved this time. A new poll from Wilke for Jyllands-Posten had them at 16.2%, the lowest poll result since the 2015 election. It was conducted in the middle of this media storm, so the final effect will probably be less, but it does give the New Right a better opportunity to establish itself as there might be some DPP voters who can be convinced right now.

http://www.politico.eu/article/morten-messerschmidt-danish-people-party-danish-anti-fraud-mep-accused-of-misusing-eu-funds-again/