The Great Nordic Thread

[Diouf]

Agreement on 2015 budget - now waiting for the election

Four persons in front: Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen - political spokesperson (they have no leader) for the Red-Green Alliance, Morten Østergaard - Deputy PM, Minister for Economic and Interior Affairs, and leader of the Social Liberals, Bjarne Corydon - Social Democrat Minister of Finance, Pia Olsen Dyhr - leader of SF/SPP

In comparison with last year's dramatic negotiations that ended with a deal between the government and the Liberals and the Conservatives, the budget talks this year were calmer and with a more expected outcome. The government made a deal with SF and the Red-Green Alliance, and from now on it is all really a matter of when the election will be called; the latest possible date is in September 2015.
The most important parts of the budget are the following:
In order to finance the increasing number of refugees coming to Denmark, they use 1 billion kr (130 million euro) which has been cut from the foreign aid and the 0.7 billion kr from the EU re-calculation of budget contributions. The government had originally planned a 2.5 billion kr cut in foreign aid, which made it possible for the Red-Green Alliance and SF to portray this part as a slight victory.
The introduction of a new temporary form of unemployment benefits for those who would otherwise have lost it due to the reform carried out by the previous centre-right majority plus the Social Liberals. The reform meant that you could not get unemployment benefits for more than two years. The new temporary form means that those who were about to lose their benefits with the new reform in 2015 will get benefits for an additional year; this new extra will be phased out during 2016 and 2017. Also the obligation to support each other financially for non-married couples living together will be removed, which means that a person's cash benefits can no longer be reduced or removed due to the income of their partner. This agreement was acceptable to the Social Liberals who can say that their reform is still in place, the Social Democrats can say that that they have made a temporary solution until a new benefit system can be created, while SF and Red-Green Alliance got something but will still be able to criticize the original reform severely.
Also slightly more funds have been distributed to a lot of different areas: health, more kindergarten employees, more home help for the elderly, ecology, nature, the fight against social dumping, and a new light railway in Aalborg.

This is widely seen as a pre-election budget with a number of measures which, expect for the cut in foreign aid, will probably satisfy many members and voters in the parties which made the agreement. Now the remaining question in this term is mainly when the election will be called. If the centre-left parties get a boost in the polls after this budget, they might call it very soon, but otherwise the most likely is probably sometime in the spring of 2015.

[Diouf]

List of the popularity of the Danish ministers from 1-100. The grey bar shows last year's grade.



The most popular minister is Mette Frederiksen, the heir apparent in the Social Democrats. Despite some tough jobs as Minister of Employment with an ongoing discussion about how to handle the unemployment benefit reform adopted by the previous government and now as Minister of Justice with a quickly increasing number of refugees, she has managed to be seen as both compassionate and competent by many voters.
The Social Democrat Minister of Finance Bjarne Corydon is second. He is mostly quite popular among the blue voters who see him as a credible and able to deliver some sound budgets and public finances.
The Social Liberal Foreign Minister Martin Lidegaard is way more popular than as Minister of Energy as he has been quite apt in the serious statesman role.
The two new young Social Democrat ministers, Magnus Heunicke and Dan Jørgensen, have made promising starts as well. Both have attracted quite a lot of coverage, although some of it might be somewhat ridiculous like the latter's decision to make an online referendum about what the Danish national dish should be, and been quite quick at reacting to developments within their field.
Also the PM is more popular than she's been for a long time, although 49.4 out of 100 is still not brilliant. The talk about broken promises is not as prominent anymore, the discussion about a possible EU job has emphasised her international reputation, and the many negative cases about the leader of the opposition have probably combined as reasons for her increased popularity.

At the bottom of the list, there are a number of ministers which are rarely noticed like Kirsten Brosbøl and Carsten Hansen. At rock bottom is the new Social Liberal Minister of Higher Education and Research Sofie Carsten Nielsen. She has become quite unpopular among the university boards and students with a plan to cut the number of students within humanities, especially in those educations which are not currently seen as paying off in terms of post-study jobs for the students. Furthermore, she has not handled the plan very well politically, and it seems like a majority without the government will force her to let the reform happen slightly slower and let the universities themselves decide which educations to cut back on instead of letting the Ministry decide upon that.

[Diouf]

The Danish government has agreed with SPP, the Liberals and the Conservatives about a referendum on the Danish exception to EU's judicial policy no later than March 2016. They want it replaced by an opt-in model, where Denmark can join common EU policy on the areas it chooses (which means no automatic participation on asylum policy). Polls show a majority for this model, but DPP wont be happy about this and it might strain the relationship between DPP and the Liberals. No info on whether the other EU countries have accepted this weird model, but I suppose the government has secured acceptance from the major players, otherwise it would be too incompetent, even for HTS & Co.

This was a part of the Lisbon Treaty, which states that Denmark has the option to turn its automatic opt-out model into an opt-in model similar to the British and Irish one. The pro-EU parties then made this agreement which gives each of them a veto on proposals from the other parties to opt-in to anything concerning asylum and immigration. This means that the likelyhood of Denmark opting in to any EU rules on asylum is quite small, and is also an attempt to stop the obvious DPP attack line of "now our strict asylum policies will be weakened significantly". Not that it will probably stop them from using it, but it can perhaps make it less effective.

[Diouf]

Which area do you think is the most important one, the one politicians should focus on?

Unemployment
Immigration
Economy
Health
Environment/Climate
Education
Taxation
None of the above/don't know

[Diouf]

the Liberal Alliance isn't (and hasn't been) as much a threat for Venstre as for the Conservatives. Which makes sense. I now understand the gap that I fills. Thanks.

This is reflected in the table of voter movements from the 2011 election, but perhaps the difference is not as big as expected. The extra voters from Venstre might be (the somewhat surprising) Liberal Alliance vote which can be seen in Western Jutland in the map. In that Venstre-dominated area, there was a lot of anger about the closure of the local hospital, and the new super hospital was placed further eastwards. While this was a regional decision, many expected the Liberal PM to intervene and change the decision. Liberal Alliance, along with a regional party, was quite vocal in opposition to the closure. In the latest voter movement poll, there was actually a swingback from the Liberal Alliance to Venstre, which can partly be because this issue is no longer salient as the decision is now irreversible.

The blue bars are men, the orange are for women. The numbers to the left show % of all voters. The one furthest to the right is new voters.

It should be remembered that the movements are from what the predecessor party the New Alliance achieved in 2007. One of their main selling points was opposition to DPP and their immigration policies. This was toned and watered down by the Liberal Alliance in 2011, and since completely reversed, which explains why some voters went back to the Radikale.

[Diouf]

The budget talks are about to start soon. The last days have been dominated by some strategic statements by the DPP and the Social Democrats. The DPP stated that they could easily imagine making agreements with the Social Democrats and other "red bloc" parties without participation of the government; for example on the issue of unemployment benefits and lower ferry prices to small islands. However, the new Social Democrat leader Mette Frederiksen stated that they she would not participate in a "economic footnote policy", a reference to the footnote foreign policy in the 80s when an alternative parliamentary majority forced the government to adopt specific national positions on nuclear and arms control issues. She said that if the DPP thinks they can see more economic similarities with the Social Democrats than the Liberals, then the DPP should probably reconsider who they want to be prime minister.
The Social Democrats understandably would not want the DPP to be able to play the role as right wing on immigration while getting their left wing policies through on economy. They hope that the DPP's expensive welfare promises can not be carried through. However, if/when the DPP present concrete proposals, that the Social Democrats have formerly stated their support for, then it might be difficult for the Social Democrats to actually reject these proposals.

[Diouf]

Gallup for Berlingske have polled about the government after the first two months.



The first question asks who have been the most visible ministers (pick up to 5). Minister of Integration Inger Støjberg is the clear number one as her proposal to re-introduce lower benefits for refugees have been widely discussed in the media. Minister of Justice Søren Pind has received quite a lot of attention after calling for tougher sentences on rape and violence, and harshly attacking "anti-capitalist protests" in Copenhagen, which destroyed banks and other businesses. Minister of Defence Carl Holst would probably have liked to avoid much of his attention; most of it was about him receiving a big "sign-off fee" from his job as leader of Region Southern Denmark. After some days of heavy media pressure, he gave back half of it. Then follows the three generally most important ministers; PM, foreign and finance.

The second question, to the left, is satisfaction with the job of the government. It is using the Danish grading scale; 12, 10, 7, 4, 02, 00 (failed), -3 (basically not showing up). DPP voters grade it a bit below average and significantly less than the three other blue bloc parties; probably due to disappointment with the DPP not being in the government and because the general sense of anti-politics, and thereby anti-government, is bigger in that party.

The third question, to the right, is about prefered PM. 37% prefer Social Democrat leader Mette Frederiksen, 28 % prefer current PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen, 21% think they're equally good, and 14% don't know.

The last question is a rating of each minister. Carl Holst is obviously in the bottom, but not that much difference between the others. Lars Christian Lilleholt and Jørn Nedergaard Larsen are also near the bottom, but probably because they are unknown. Støjberg and Pind are high in the list here as well; they probably score very high among blue bloc voters, but especially Støjberg will also get a lot of very negative scores by many left wing voters. Bertel Haarder and Kristian Jensen are probably not that popular among blue voters, but are not really unpopular among red voters. Haarder is considered as an old statesman, and has been minister of many different things; many guessed that he would be the new Speaker of Parliament.

[Diouf]

The Liberal Danish government had its first defeat. The Minister of Integration wanted to restart the process of giving citizenship to 2750 people, who didn't fullfil the demands for citizenship but had been granted exemptions. The vast majority of these people had already been notified that their exemption had been accepted, but they had not yet been on an official citizenship law passed in parliament. However, the Minister Støjberg said "It is no secret that I and the Government believe that the rules have been too lax, and that too many people have been granted exemptions". The left wing parties were obviously against this, but they were joined by the Liberal Alliance in granting the exemptions ágain to everybody, but the 200 people whose exemption had been given after the election was called, and were therefore explictly conditioned exemptions. The Liberal Alliance argument was that it would create a further distrust in politicians if already granted exemptions were withdrawn, and that it was simply not a decent way of making politics.

It is by no means a huge defeat, but it neatly illustrates the current parliamentary situation. The Liberals might also see a tiny bit of positives in this; they have lost quite a few voters to the Liberal Alliance, and if they can use the "soft on immigration" argument against them, they might lure a few of them back. The Liberal Alliance was originally the New Alliance, a party with stances closer to those of the Social Liberals, and the leader and deputy leader are ex-Social Liberals, so early on, focus groups were telling the party that the soft immigration policy were holding some people back from voting on them. Therefore, they adapted a much tougher line on immigration, which this decision to overule the government might undermine somewhat.

[Diouf]

The Danish Government to take 1000 refugees voluntarily

Just before meeting with Tusk, Vestager and Juncker in Brussels today, PM Lars Løkke Rasmussen announced that the government will suggest taking 1 000 refugees voluntarily of the 120 000 that is to be relocated in the EU. In addition to that, Denmark will spend 750 mio DKK (100 mio euro) extra to deal with the external aspects of the crisis. One third will go to help the refugees in Syria and its neighbouring countries, while two thirds will go to the establishment of hot spots and increase the protection at the EU's external border.

The plan is supported as it is by the Social Democrats and the Conservatives. The Social Liberals, the Alternative, the Red-Green Alliance and the SPP will support the plan as well, but they all wish for a higher number of refugees. So there's a clear majority in favour of the plan.
The Liberal Alliance is in favour of spending the money, but remain sceptical about accepting the 1 000 refugees.
The DPP is rejecting the plan because the government isn't following their advice of cancelling the integration programs and the municipality's duty to find accommodation, and instead keep them in centres until they can be sent home. As they say, they are refugees and should remain that, i.e. be sent home when the war is over, and they shouldn't be transformed into immigrants.

The movement in the latest poll is all within the margin of error, but the movement is that the Liberals continue bleeding supporters to the DPP, around 1.5% more. Not much movement between the blocs.
Meanwhile Defence Minister Carl Holst is walking from one scandal to the next. After weeks of discussions about the "sign-off fee" he received from his job as leader of the Region of Southern Denmark, it is now emerging that the region employed a person, which acted as his personal assistant and perhaps even helped him in his election campaign, which would be against the rules. After days of denying that the person was his personal assistant, he today admitted that. Now it will be investigated in a couple of weeks what exact role the assistant had.

[Diouf]

@Diouf:

1) Wonder how this would have played out with DPP in government? Would they just have been forced to resign or would LLR have had to cave in?

2) With no government takeover of asylum centers/no stop to integration programs and no border control DPP is screwed. They would have needed at least one of those things. Will be interesting to see what they do next.

3) Too bad about Holst. He seemed like the best the Libs had, but apparently he is a little to greedy.

There must be quite the pressure on Løkke from other EU leaders, so accepting some refugees would probably have been hard to avoid for Løkke. I guess DPP could have made a Soini, and stayed a bit under the radar, but it would certainly have tested the well-renowned discipline in the party. Or perhaps the party would have allowed a few backbenchers to let out some steam, so they could keep a dual government-opposition position. Løkke would probably had been forced to give them border control in some way, especially after Germany decided to do the same. The non-integration plan Løkke could hardly accept.

Perhaps the DPP will be calmed somewhat if several polls start to show them clearly ahead of Venstre; then at least they will have gained that. They could still get something on border control perhaps in some way. Their demands for the Budget has probably not become smaller, while the ability for the government to give them something has become smaller as well.

[Diouf]

The non-integration plan Løkke could hardly accept.

Why? It is a domestic version of the camps in the near areas Venstre has toyed with themselves. Too much pressure from DI?

I just mainly thought about what seems to be the general unworkability of such a system. Thousands of people, which there are no guarantee you can ever send home, stuck for years in a system without help to learn the language or get into the labour market. The hope is of course that it would keep people away or make them leave, but that is by no means certain. You could imagine quite a lot of tensions as well, with bunches of refugees completely isolated culturally from the rest of the population. I think the international pressure against camps like that would be pretty big as well.
In the near areas, the refugees are in a similar culture plus of course they are far away from Denmark, so no culture clash and its way cheaper per person. Wouldn't attract the same international outcry either.

[Diouf]

The Danish MEP Rikke Karlsson has decided to leave the DPP. She says that the primary reason is that she was pushed to sign documents stating that she, among other things, had participated in meetings in the Euro-parties Movement for a Europe of Liberties and Democracy and Foundation for a Europe of Liberties and Democracy. However, she claims never to have participated in any meetings, and after several rejected requests of more information about these parties, she decided to leave.
It will of course be interesting to see whether the Eurosceptic DPP has in fact meddled with documents in order to collect as much money from the system as possible. This could create a minor backlash for the party. However, Karlsson's exit is also another damning indictment of Morten Messerschmidt's leader skills. In the previous term, the fellow DPP MEP Anna Rosbach left the party midway through the term after severe conflicts with him, and it is quite clearly a chemistry question this time as well. Messerschmidt is a very intelligent and charismatic politician, he led the DPP to a victory in the EP elections 2014 with the highest number of personal votes ever, but he is also extremely arrogant. His lacking leadership abilities might put into question his role as the heir apparent in the DPP. Not that Thulelsen Dahl is likely to leave anytime soon.

[Diouf]

His lacking leadership abilities might put into question his role as the heir apparent in the DPP. Not that Thulelsen Dahl is likely to leave anytime soon.

He has no such status.

Well, he is the man behind the DPP's biggest victory ever, perhaps the most well-known and popular DPPer after Thulelsen Dahl and Kjærsgaard, he is a member of the DPP 4-man coordination committee, and he is such a charismatic speaker and influential figure that he often represents DPP in debates that has nothing to do with the EU at all.
I have a hard time seeing who else could be called the heir apparent in the DPP right now. I know that it could easily be ten years or more before Thulelsen Dahl resigns so other faces could easily emerge until then, but if you ask DPP members now who they imagine as leader after Thulelsen Dahl, I would think that a large majority would say Messerschmidt.

[Diouf]

His lacking leadership abilities might put into question his role as the heir apparent in the DPP. Not that Thulelsen Dahl is likely to leave anytime soon.

He has no such status.

Well, he is the man behind the DPP's biggest victory ever, perhaps the most well-known and popular DPPer after Thulelsen Dahl and Kjærsgaard, he is a member of the DPP 4-man coordination committee, and he is such a charismatic speaker and influential figure that he often represents DPP in debates that has nothing to do with the EU at all.
I have a hard time seeing who else could be called the heir apparent in the DPP right now. I know that it could easily be ten years or more before Thulelsen Dahl resigns so other faces could easily emerge until then, but if you ask DPP members now who they imagine as leader after Thulelsen Dahl, I would think that a large majority would say Messerschmidt.

DPP is not run by its members and an heir would be appointed by the inner circle: Thulesen-Dahl, Søren Espersen, Peter Skaarup and chief of press Søren Søndergaard after consulting with Pia Kjærsgaard (who would probably still have the final word). Those people would never leave the party in the hands of someone like Messerschmidt, who in addition to the personal deficiencies Ingemann mentioned, is also too right wing and too prone to flirt with "extreme" positions, which would jeopardize the mainstreaming project (such as climate skepticism and a soft spot for Putin).

Messerschmidt has made strides to become more mainstream in the party. He has changed from atheist and very right wing on economics to a classic DPP Christian Social Democrat.
As I have written already, there will probably not be a leadership election in the party any time soon and all kind of new faces could emerge, but the standard DPP members seem him as the logical heir right now.
You can run for leader with the support of 25 delegates, which Messerschmidt will probably always be able to get without a problem. He normally doesn't underestimate him self, so unless he was sure that he couldn't beat whichever candidate parts of the establishment would run with, then I couldn't see him backing down in such a situation.

[Diouf]

The race is on to fill the vacant gap to the right of DPP. Three National Conservatives from the Conservative People's Party's right wing have founded a new party called We Conservatives, the only really interesting about this is that one of them is called Peter Seier Christensen, lives in überwealthy Rungsted and might be related to Saxo Bank co-founder, tax exiled billionaire and LA bankroller Lars Seier Christensen. Also, what a lame name when they could have gone with the historical Højre ("the Right"), the only decent name for a Danish National Conservative party.


Chairman Pernille Vermund

Unsurprisingly, the party was not allowed to use that lame name which sounds so much like the standard short hand version of the Conservatives. Instead they are called Nye Borgerlige (the New Bourgeois). That word of course doesn't have the marxist connotations in Danish. My guess is that they would have use Ny Højre (New Right) if that hadn't been the name of a Borgen party.

In other news, a Norstat poll for Altinget shows Venstre (the Liberals) on 20.1%,  i.e. above the election result. Like the other post-election polls, little movement. The Conservatives are closer to the threshold (2,9%), the Red-Green Alliance rises to 9,5 % while the Social Democrats loses a bit to 25%. Still blue bloc majority overall.

[Diouf]

The three biggest parties agree on changes to unemployment benefits


Four in the front: Social Democrat leader Mette Frederiksen, DPP leader Kristian Thulelsen Dahl, Liberal Minister of Employment Jørn Neergaard Larsen, Liberal Minister of Finance Claus Hjort Frederiksen

The three biggest parties, the Social Democrats, the DPP and the Liberals, have agreed on changing the unemployment benefit system. The system gets 300 million DKK (40 mio euro) added annually from 2017 and onwards.

Ever since the 2010 reform of the unemployment benefit (dagpenge) system, the issue has been near the top of the political agenda. The reform cut in half the period in which you can get unemployment benefits, from four to two years, and doubled the period you need to work to earn back the rights of full unemplyment benefits, from six to twelve months. The reform was agreed by the then Liberal-Conservative government and the DPP, but the Social Liberals and the Liberal Alliance voted in favour of it as well. The Social Democrats, the SPP and the Red-Green Alliance was opposed to it and campaigned heavily against it in 2011, but since they were heavily dependent on the Social Liberals after the 2011 election, the reform couldn't be rolled back.

This failure to roll the reform back was one of the main reasons that the government was quickly seen as untrustworthy and not keeping its promises. The Social Democrats and especially the SPP continously tried to change the system, but the Social Liberals would only allow temporary solutions. During their term in government, the DPP changed their tune and now supported rolling it back somewhat which put extra pressure on the red parties in the government. A working group was set up by the government to investigate possible changes to the system but, again due to the Social Liberals, the working group could not propose a more expensive system than the current one. That was the line by both the Liberals and the Social Democrats in the election campaign in 2015 as well.

Shortly after Mette Frederiksen became the new Social Democrat leader, she stated that the Social Democrats, now liberated from their governmental cooperation with the Social Liberals, supported adding more money to the system. Three days ago, the working group gave its proposed cost-neutral solution; making it easier to re-earn the right to unemployment benefits, even via short-term employment, while introducing 8 days a year where the unemployment benefits wouldn't be paid and lowering the rate for graduates.

Since there was a potential majority outside the government in favour of increasing the costs of the system, although the Social Democrats seemed hesistant to use it, it has now ended with a compromise which adds 300 mio DKK (40 mio euro) to the system annually from 2017. The Liberals kind of had to make an agreement after the working group's proposal, and neither the Social Democrats nor the DPP would want to be part of an agreement without the other one. The system adopts the easier ways of re-earning the right to benefits, but only introduces 3 days a year where unemployment benefits aren't paid. The graduate rate is cut even more than proposed, but this is not enough to make the system cost-neutral. The Social Liberals wasn't in the agreement but will support the agreement as it is a broad agreement, not that expensive and still very much based on the original deal. The Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives attack the deal and the Liberals for agreeing on a deal which raises the costs of the system, while the SPP, the Alternatives and the Red-Green Alliance are opposed to the agreement for not doing enough.

[Diouf]

A new poll by Greens for Børsen shows that the Social Democrat voters are not satisfied with the above mentioned reform of the unemployment benefit system. Only 22 % are satisfied or very satisfied, while 37 % are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. With the Liberal voters, it is the other way around. 47 % are satisfied or very satisfied while only 9 % are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Børsen unfotunately does not write what the DPP voters think about the deal, but my guess is that they are somewhere inbetween, probably slightly more in favour than against. The three parties to the left of the Social Democrats have criticized the deal severely, which probably explains the dissatisfaction among Social Democrat voters.

While the number of asylum seekers in Denmark is likely to be lower in 2015 than in 2014, the number of residence permits granted to asylum seekers and their families is projected to be the highest since 1995. In 2014, 14,792 persons applied for asylum in Denmark, while 9,793 had applied in 2015 by the 1st October. Therefore, the total number of asylum seekers is expected to be lower this year than in the previous year. However, in 2014 7,012 persons received a residence permit, either directly or via family reunification, while the 2015 number until 1st October is already 10,116. The combined 2015 number is expected to be 13,000, and if Denmark takes the 1,000 refugees from the EU relocation system as promised, then the final figure could reach 14,000 which would be the highest number of residence permits granted to asylum seekers and their families since 1995. The main reason is that almost all of the Syrians get asylum.

Norstat for Altinget made a poll of the attitudes towards the number of asylum seekers in Denmark. The question asked was "Denmark received around 15,000 asylum seekers last year. What do you think of the number of asylum seekers?". 16 % said that Denmark should take in more asylum seekers, 31 % thought the 15,000 number was appropriate and 45 % thinks that Denmark should take in fewer asylum seekers. 9 % answered don't know. Per party figures below:

                                   S         R        K       SF      LA     DF     V     EL    ALT
More asylum seekers     16%   49%   10%   18%   9%   1%   5%   44%   55%
Appropriate number      42%   35%   34%   33%   38% 12% 38% 32%   17%
Less asylum seekers     29%     4%    54%   38%   50% 84% 53% 20%   13%
Don't know                   13%   12%   2%    11%    3%    4%   5%   5%   16%

[Diouf]

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http://ca.reuters.com/article/topNews/idCAKCN0SU2P820151105

[Diouf]

Denmark is going to increase its participation in the UN mission in Mali. Currently, 20 Danish soldiers are taking part, and now they will be joined by a transport air plane and 30 special-trained soldiers. The Liberal government's proposal is backed by the Social Democrats, the Social Liberals, the SPP, the Alternative and the Liberal Alliance, while DPP, the Conservatives and the Red-Green Alliance is opposed to it. The Conservative opposition reflect their movement away from being a "responsible" governmental party. They argue that Denmark should focus its limited efforts on the Middle East instead. The DPP also argues that the 42 mio DKK (5,6 mio euro) could be spent better elsewhere, and that Danish soldiers should not be sent to a dangerous African civil war. Perhaps a bit surprising that the Alternative is in favour as they seem to be quite the peace, love and harmony party, but I think the decisive factor for them is that it is an UN mandate.

In the Social Democrats, there is now open criticism of the party's line in the immigration and refugee question from inside the parliamentary group. The former Minister of Agriculture and current chairman of the European Committee Mette Gjerskov attacks the party's decision to join the negotiations on lower benefits for people, who haven't lived in Denmark in 7 out of the last 8 years. The proposed "integration benefit" will be 45 % lower than the standard cash benefits, although the cut will be less severe if you pass Danish language tests and other integration requirements. The Social Democrats accepted these cuts as it was the requirement to join the negotiations, but proposed giving out vouchers with free access to sports organisations and winter clothes for the children in these families. The blue bloc didn't accept that idea, so the Social Democrats will not even be in the agreement after changing their position on the integration benefit to the dislike of many in the party. Additionally, the party hasn't ruled out accepting the government's cuts to the foreign aid budget. Gjerskov's criticism was shared by another Social Democrat MP Yildiz Akdogan.

[Diouf]

Amidst new numbers showing that 3,600 persons applied for asylum in Denmark in October, twice the 2014 number, and 1,100 during the last week, Prime Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen called a meeting on Friday with the other party leaders to discuss further tightening the refugee and immigration policy. The new measures are expected to include shorter and more temporary residence permits, tougher restrictions on family reunification and even lower benefits. He also wants to do more on sending back rejected asylum seekers as well as alleviating the municipalities' problems in providing housing. The Blue Bloc and the Social Democrats welcomed the announcement, and are expected to be a part of the agreement.

Negotiations on the budget have intensified. Minister of Finance Claus Hjort Frederiksen decided to have further negotiations in Denmark instead of travelling to the ECOFIN Council yesterday. The DPP is demanding an additional billion DKK (130 mio euro) for the elderly, tougher rules on refugees, immigration, border control, integration and citizenship along with more police officers, the Conservatives are prioritizing lowering housing taxes as well as more police officers while the Liberal Alliance is focusing on lowering the taxation on cars. A budget agreement is expected in around a week.

[Diouf]

Budget agreement - now referendum



The Blue Bloc parties today agreed on the budget for 2016 the day before Parliament closes for the two weeks up to the referendum on turning the JHA opt-out into an opt-in. The main parts of the budget include more money for health care (2.4 bn. DKK/0.32 bn. euro) and elderly care (1 bn. DKK/0.13 bn. euro). Additionally, the police will get 1.9 bn. DKK/0,25 bn. euro extra for the next four years. Car taxes are reduced from 180 % to 150 % and the planned housing tax increases for next year, which would hit expensive houses more, are removed.

The foreign aid budget is cut by 2.6 bn DKK/0,35 bn. euro, so that Denmark just fulfills the UN's minimum goal of 0.7 % of GDP, which of course only a handfull of countries actually fullfill. A benefit cap is introduced for people on cash benefits, and their weeks of holiday are reduced  from five to four. Additionally the budgets for research and education will be reduced by 2 % in each of the next four years. Finally, cash benefits will be cut for persons that haven't lived in Denmark for 7 out of the last 8 years, and asylum seekers and illegal immigrants will be accomodated more cheaply in temporary "tent camps".

The Liberal Alliance and the Conservatives both seemed fairly happy as they got some of their biggest wishes with lower taxes on cars and avoiding higher housing taxes. Most of the attention has turned to whether the DPP got enough out of the deal; the left wing parties, and especially the Social Democrats, have attacked them hard. They obviously got some things in the shape of stricter refugee policies, more money for the police and more money for health care and elderly, but they have accepted a benefit cap and tax reliefs for houses and cars which will be most beneficial for the wealthiest. Therefore, it is easy to attack them for giving money from the poor to rich, opposite of how they like to portrait themselves.

On top of the criticism of the DPP in relation to the budget, they will have to pay back 110,000 DKK/15,000 euro to the EU for wrongly used EU party support. A part of the case that has haunted their star MEP Morten Messerschmidt for weeks.
Now Parliament closes for two weeks as the referendum campaign intensifies.

[Diouf]

Liberal MEP becomes Social Liberal



The Danish MEP Jens Rohde has decided to leave the Liberals due to their refugee polices and EU-policies. He has instead decided to join the Social Liberals. This means that the Liberals now only has 1 of the 13 Danish MEPs, while the Social Liberals has 2 MEPs and the Danish Commissioner. He becomes the second MEP to leave his party since the June 2014 election after Rikke Karlsson left DPP earlier this year over concerns about the party's use of EU funds.

Jens Rohde was an MP from 1998 to 2006, and from 2001 to 2006 he had the very important role as Political Spokesperson for the Liberals. During that time he bravely defended the government's toughening of immigration policies together with the DPP, as he had to in that role, but since leaving the Danish Parliament he has been known for not agreeing with ever tougher refugee policies and criticizing slight movements towards a somewhat more sceptial view of the EU. He left Parliament to become director of a new radio channel, but that was a short, unsuccesful stint, so in 2009 he returned to politics as the Liberal lead candidate for the European elections.
Shortly before the Liberals chose its candidates for the 2014 European elections, he wrote a comment arguing for a much stronger European integration, including a common EU army. Therefore, the party leadership decided he was to EU-positive to be their lead candidate Again. However, he was chosen by one of the regional committees as a candidate, and was re-elected as the Liberal candidate with the second most personal votes.
For the past several years, he has often made clear that he was a SuperEuropean and preferred much softer and more common EU refugee policies, which was the opposite of the party line. Additionally, he is not very fond of party leader, and now PM, Lars Løkke Rasmussen, so he was one of the most famous and outspoken of those who almost forced Løkke to resign at a 2014 extraordinary party meeting.
It is no big surprise that Rohde has left, and an even less of an surprise that he is now a Social Liberal. For years he has stated that "you should never threaten to leave, you should threaten to stay" when asked about his disagreements with the party line, but now it was apparently time to leave. He will obviously stay in the ALDE Group in the European Parliament since both parties are located there, but now he can follow the ALDE and Guy Verhofstadt line much more outspokenly and consistenly than in the Liberals where there is quite some apprehension of being connected to this "SuperEuropean line". Rohde is also Deputy Mayor in Viborg Municipality, but it is still unclear whether he can keep that role.

During the last weeks, two low-profile parliamentary candidates left the Liberals and joined the Alternative! Whereas the Liberal to Social Liberal shift is pretty understandable for the pro-European social liberals, the two shifts to the Alternative are very odd. They are quite far from the Liberals on many issues apart from refugees like economy, climate, taxation etc, and aren't even really more EU-positive.
There are probably still a handful or so Liberal MPs with some leanings in a slight social liberal direction, but not any that has made many public comments opposed to the party line as Rohde. Therefore, I wouldn't think that any of them are about to jump ship, but you never know.

[Diouf]

Are there any possible defectors in the LA? You would think an ostensibly libertarian party might have some issues with the refugee policy of the government.

hmm, I don't really think so. Of course, the party's top and founders came from the Social Liberals, but the change from the New Alliance-policy on that subject has been quite clear for some years now, so you would think that those disagreeing might have left by now. Jørgen Poulsen, MP at the time, was elected for the New Alliance in 2007, but defected to the Social Liberals in 2008 while the party was in the process of becoming the Liberal Alliance. I would think most of his kind would have left then.

The party has been suggesting creating camps in Africa where refugees coming to Denmark should be sent to and other similar, tough "cost-efficient measures", so it would be weird if somebody just now realized that their refugee policy is quite tough. The same might be said about the Liberals, but it is arguably a much broader party due to its longer history.

I still think that the biggest defection-risk for the blue bloc is that one of the many new DPP MPs will leave the party over its acceptance of a too right wing economic policy. In recent weeks, the media have been dominated by stories about the potential loss of housing subsidies for some pensioners as a result of a part of the agreed on 2016 Budget. This hurt the DPP so badly, that they in the end forced the government to take the unprecedented step of re-opening the budget to take these measures out of the budget. If there are enough incidents like that one, then one of the new backbenchers could leave the party, most likely to join the Social Democrats or set up a new short-lived party of some sort.

[Diouf]

From today, it will be easier for parties in Denmark to run for election as it will be possible to collect signatures online. Until now parties had to gather signatures in person, then the municipality would send a form to each signatory who then had to return the filled-out form. Now the whole process can be carried out online. For running in a general election, you need around 20 000 signatures collected within a time span of 18 months.
The Christian Democrats will most likely run again, and would probably have managed to due so even under the old system due to their relatively high number of experienced activists compared to their size.
Nye Borgerlige (New Bourgeois/New Right might be better in English as it doesn't carry the marxist vibe) have very good chances to collect the required number of signatures, I reckon.
Nationalpartiet (the National Party) will probably also be able to make it.

So combined with the current 9 parties in Parliament, we could very well have 12 parties running in the next general election.

I have problems seeing how the Christian Democrats will suddenly pass the threshold; their are reluctant to really campaign on their "unique" positions such as opposition to abortion, gay marriage etc. It usually ends up in talk about better conditions for families, which is hardly unique enough to get a party elected.
I think the New Bourgeois/New Right has rather good chances of passing the threshold. There should be a clear possibility to attract voters from the DPP, which either thinks the party has become too soft on migration and EU or is dissatisfied with their Social Democrat-like economic policies. Parts of the three other blue bloc parties could probably be tempted as well. We could see both the New Bourgeois/New Right and the Conservatives just around the threshold at the next election.
I am not really sure about the National Party. There are already five red bloc parties, so in some way most left leaning voters should already have enough to choose from. However, it is possible that they manage to carve out a niche for themselves regarding opposition to tough refugee and immigration rules and Danish wars in the Middle East. These positions are of course already common in other left-wing parties, but due to the immigrant background of their founders and leaders, they might be a more "credible" voice and manage to mobilize some immigrant communities. While Yahya Hassan gives them a certain degree of publicity, he might damage the latter point as his strong criticism of lifestyles of hypocrisy in immigrant neighbourhoods is probably not superpopular in those areas.

[Diouf]

Berlingske Barometer polling average (compared to 2015 election):

Social Democrats 24.7 % (-1.6 %)
Social Liberals 5.7 % (+1.1 %)
Conservatives 3.4 % (=)
SPP 4.4 % (+ 0.2 %)
Liberal Alliance 7.7 % (+ 0.2 %)
DPP 19.7 % (- 1.4 %)
Liberals 18.7 % (- 0.8 %)
Red-Green Alliance 9.1 % (+ 1.3 %)
The Alternative 6.1 % (+ 1.3%)

Red Bloc 50 %
Blue Bloc 49.5 %.
However, the Christian Democrats, while currently not eligible to run in the next election, is still often included and get 0.5 % in the average. So all in all 50-50. However, since the Christian Democrats will be wasted votes, the seat lead is 88-87 for Red Bloc.

I haven't seen a voter movement poll lately, but the most likely movements are probably DPPers and some Liberals going to the Social Democrats due to dissatisfaction with the government and DPP's handling of the migration crisis and the 2016 budget, that included freezed housing taxes and lower car taxes, mostly, but not exclusively, to the benefit of the rich. Similarly, significant portions of the Social Democrats' left wing seems to have left them due to their very tough line on migration and refugees, and have moved to the Social Liberals, the Red-Greens or the Alternative. Right now, it seems quite likely that the next election could end up with the same outcome as the last one; a small one-party government consisting of a party that lost seats at the election.

In the Social Democrats, the rather significant toughening of the line, "we will do everything we can to reduce the number of non-Western refugees and immigrants coming to this country", has caused some protests in the parliamentary group, but mostly from backbenchers. The most prominent critic is the former Minister for Agriculture and current chairman of the European Committee Mette Gjerskov, who has even said that she will vote against the party line on some of these proposals. Recently, there was an internal party vote on the party's position on re-introducing citizenship test, even for children born and raised in Denmark without a criminal record and who have passed Folkeskolen (something like secondary school, age 15-16). 10 MPs voted against the party accepting this strictening.

As previously mentioned, the Liberals has also had some defections. A MEP and a few local politicians or previous parliamentary candidates have left the party due to the tough line on refugee and migration. In the recent week, the rumours have talked about a possible reshuffe before summer. The Finance Minister Claus Hjort Frederiksen has made some clear mistakes in the handling of the 2016 budget and negotiations with the municipalities in dealing with the expenses to asylum seekers and refugees. Therefore, some speculate whether the 68-year old could be reshuffled or choose to resign, already at some point before the summer.