The Great Nordic Thread

[Helsinkian]

Not clear yet. Orpo will become the Finance Minister but he'll probably allow Stubb to take one of the three other ministerial portfolios the NCP has if that's what Stubb wants.

Orpo offered him the position of another minister but Stubb turned it down, and he will thus leave the cabinet entirely. If I had to guess, I'd say that he'll leave the country within a year; he's a cosmopolitan  by nature.

[Helsinkian]

In Finland, a Finns Party MP, Maria Tolppanen, has announced that she's defecting to the Social Democrats. She cited the government's austerity policies as the reason.

This goes to show that it's inaccurate to label the Finns Party simply as a "far-right" party; far-right MPs rarely go on to become Social Democrats.

[Helsinkian]

A new opinion poll finds little support for "Fixit" (Finnish EU exit): if there were a referendum, 68% would vote to stay in the EU, and 21% would vote to leave.

[Helsinkian]

Helsinkian, how is the Finnish economy doing now? Better?

Not by much, I think... Unemployment has remained high and the predictions say that the economic growth will continue to be slow.

[Helsinkian]

In the town of Imatra, Eastern Finland, a man shot three people with a rifle in front of a restaurant. One of the victims was the chairwoman of Imatra's city council (social democrat), and the two others were reporters. Despite speculations of a political motive, the police believe that the shooter chose the victims at random. The shooter was then apprehended by police without resistance.

[Helsinkian]

In 2014 the Finnish Parliament passed same-sex marriage as a result of a citizens' initiative. The law takes effect next month. In a last-ditch effort to prevent that, another citizens' iniative was brought to the Parliament, calling for marriage to be defined as an institution between a man and a woman. That initiative was now rejected by the Parliament. Within the parties, the largest switch took place within the Centre Party: in the 2014 vote most Centre MPs were opposed to same-sex marriage, but now two thirds of them were against repealing it; some felt that the issue had become settled, and that it would be wrong to overturn an initiative that was so recently passed. The Finns Party, with a few exceptions, again voted against same-sex marriage, and so did the Christian Democrats.

The same-sex marriage initiative passed in 2014 remains the only succesful citizens' initiative. It was signed by over 160,000 people. The initiative aimed at repealing it was signed by over 100,000 people. An initiative needs to be signed by 50,000 citizens in six months in order for it to be considered by the Parliament.

[Helsinkian]

There were other laws that needed to be changed before it took effect; laws related to adoption, for example.

[Helsinkian]

Yes, he is stepping down in the summer after 20 years of leading the party. The three frontrunners to succeed him are 1) Jussi Halla-aho, MEP, 2) Sampo Terho, chairman of the parliamentary group, and 3) Jussi Niinistö, Minister of Defence.

Of these three, Halla-aho would be seen as the most "radical" choice, as he has called for a significant tightening of Finland's immigration policies and has also called for Finland's exit from the EU. He has criticized Soini, and most likely he would have ran for the leadership even if Soini had not stepped down.

The other government parties would have little trouble working with Terho or Niinistö as the Finns Party's leader; they would be viewed as a continuation of Soini. Halla-aho's election as party leader might, however, lead to a crisis in the government. It's possible that Halla-aho, if elected, might take the party to the opposition voluntarily as well.

The Finns Party's support now hovers around 10 percent, far from the ~18 percent they got in the last parliamentary election. There will be a municipal election in April, and they are not expected to do very well.

[Helsinkian]

Sampo Terho is officially running. Jussi Niinistö is not; he's supporting Terho.

[Helsinkian]

Sampo Terho is officially running. Jussi Niinistö is not; he's supporting Terho.

Jussi Halla-aho has confirmed that he is running as well.

[Helsinkian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

One prominent member of the National Coalition Party, Jan Vapaavuori, who is running to be the mayor of Helsinki, said that he can't see the NCP in the same government with a Finns Party led by Halla-aho. The NCP ministers haven't gone that far yet, though.

I'd say the chances are 50-50 between Terho and Halla-aho. There have been a couple of polls which favour Terho but they were with very small samples. All party members can vote on the chairman but the twist is that they must come to the party congress personally to cast a vote; there is no postal ballot. The party has around 10,000 members.

[Helsinkian]

In the 1970s the turnout in elections was still around 80%. The lower turnout in recent elections seems to be especially due to the dropping turnout among young generations. There have been polls done on young people indicating that they are particularly sceptical of politicians or are not very interested in politics.

[Helsinkian]

Sauli Niinistö, the President of Finland, will seek re-election in the presidential election that will be held early next year. Niinistö, who was elected as the National Coalition Party candidate in 2012, will now stand as an independent candidate, albeit he will be supported by the NCP. Finnish presidents have traditionally resigned their party membership when elected, but it seem that Niinistö now wants to further emphasise his independence from his old party. He will need 20,000 signatures but that won't be a problem.

The first round of the presidential election will be held on 28 January 2018, along with elections to the new regional councils.

[Helsinkian]

Finland still has a law prohibiting blasphemy. Officially Chapter 17, Section 10 of the Finnish criminal code is titled "disturbing religious peace" but as you can see from the very beginning of the text it also prohibits blasphemy:

10 § Disturbing religious peace

Whoever

• 1) publicly blasphemes God or, with the intent to insult, publicly defames or desecrates something a church or another religious community, as defined in the act on religious freedom, considers to be sacred, or
• 2) makes noises, behaves in a threatening manner or otherwise disturbs a religious service, a church proceeding or other similar religious practice or a funeral,

shall be sentenced to pay a fine or serve a prison term no longer than six months for disturbing religious peace.

(Own translation.)

While in the past this law has been used to prosecute people blaspheming the Christian God, in recent years it has mostly been used to prosecute critics of Islam, including Jussi Halla-aho. It has even been used to prosecute people who have drawn cartoons of Mohammed or who have published pictures of themselves desecrating the Quran.

Most Finnish parties support keeping the law as it is. Its critics have mostly come from the Finns Party and the Greens. Yet when a group of Finns Party MPs, during the last parliament, authored a bill that would have repealed the first subsection of this law, Green MPs who had previously criticized the same subsection refused to back the repeal, apparently not wanting to publicly agree on anything with the Finns Party.

While we're on the topic of leftist hypocricy...  A few years ago Päivi Räsänen of the Christian Democrats, then Minister of the Interior, gave a speech on the topic of hospital staff being allowed to refuse performing abortions (in Finland they are not allowed to refuse). In that speech she appeared to imply that in certain issues a Christian must put the Bible above the law. The left-wingers were outraged at this statement and demanded her resignation...

...Now fast-forward a few years to the current time. The refugee crisis brought unprecedented numbers of asylum seekers to Finland. Some were granted asylum, others were not. The Lutheran Church of Finland, a church with a rather liberal theology, took upon itself to protect those asylum seekers who had their application rejected, as well as other "undocumented" people. Some parishes announced that they would offer them asylum in the church even if they had been rejected by the state. In other words, the clergy wanted to put (their interpretation of) the Bible above secular law. For some reason the left-wingers were not outraged this time, on the contrary: the leftists who had for decades railed against Christianity now became great supporters of the Church.

[Helsinkian]

The Finns Party's party congress convenes tomorrow to vote on the new chairman, as Timo Soini, who has led the party for 20 years, steps down. The main candidates are Sampo Terho, Minister for Culture, and Jussi Halla-aho, MEP. Terho would be seen as a continuation of Soini's rather moderate line. Halla-aho would take the party further to the right on immigration. The Finns Party's coalition partners in the Finnish government, the Centre Party and the National Coalition Party, would prefer Terho.

[Helsinkian]

Yes, the feeling is that race is very tight. Polling is difficult, though, because we don't know how representative the local leaders interviewed for the polls are of the 2,000+ members who will be voting tomorrow.

[Helsinkian]

Halla-aho elected on the first round of voting. Halla-aho 56% of the votes, Sampo Terho 37%.

[Helsinkian]

Halla-aho is more open to leaving government than Soini was or Terho would have been, but he will first try to keep the party in government to drive a harder immigration line (which actually does have some basis in the government platform accepted by the three parties in 2015).

[Helsinkian]

Laura Huhtasaari, a close ally of Halla-aho, was elected as the party's 1st deputy chair.

Edit: the 2nd and 3rd deputy chairs are also Halla-aho's allies.

[Helsinkian]

Not many details yet; I suppose we'll see in the following days.

[Helsinkian]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/newly-elected_halla-aho_sparks_debate_about_future_of_government_coalition/9662545

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://yle.fi/uutiset/osasto/news/new_leader_halla-aho_to_push_finns_party_in_nationalistic_eurosceptic_direction/9663481

[Helsinkian]

Breaking news: following discussions between Jussi Halla-aho and the leaders of the Centre Party, Prime Minister Sipilä, and the National Coalition Party, Finance Minister Petteri Orpo, Sipilä and Orpo have issued a joint statement where they say that they cannot continue in the government coalition with Halla-aho's Finns Party.

According to Halla-aho, he had been ready to honour the government platform of 2015 but demanded that it's immigration part (which, for example, called for Finland to oppose the EU's mandatory refugee reallocation scheme, tighten family reunification criteria etc.) be fully implemented. Sipilä and Orpo did not agree to this.

Most people think Sipilä will now try to form a new coalition with the NCP, the Swedish People's Party and the Christian Democrats. They would only have the slimmest majority. He will try to avoid a new election because the Centre Party is no longer leading the opinion polls. SDP and the Greens have previously said that they won't go to the government without a new election. Left Alliance is off the table.

Speaking as a Finns Party supporter: at least this shows that Halla-aho had the backbone to refuse being a doormat to the NCP and Centre, which is what Soini had been for two years.

[Helsinkian]

Soini showed himself to be the traitor that he was: under his leadership 22 Finns Party MPs are leaving to found a new parliamentary group called "New Alternative". So that leaves Halla-aho's Finns Party with 15 loyal MPs. To my surprise, Sampo Terho is among the defectors, as are other ministers and the speaker of the parliament, Maria Lohela. This "New Alternative" will support the government and apparently the ministers will hold onto their jobs. It seems that they value their own careers more than any sort of ideology or party loyalty. The majority of the parliamentary party did not accept the decision of the majority of members; they have labelled the party congress's democratic election a "coup".

Ironically, it was less than two weeks ago that Soini wrote in his blog that he would never leave the party and called defectors "losers" and "Judases".

I believe it is accurate to describe the new group's ideology as "cuckservatism": pretending to be a conservative but selling out to liberals. I'm sure most of the defectors will lose their seats in the next election.

[Helsinkian]

The defectors have now been officially expelled from the Finns Party. After thinking about their name for a while, the defectors have decided that "New Alternative" is not that good of a name after all: they have founded a new party called "Blue Reform" in English (though the Finnish name, "Sininen tulevaisuus" literally means "Blue Future"). They now have to gather 5,000 signatures in order to become a registered party. I do not predict a bright future for them.

[Helsinkian]

It's pretty clear to most people that New Alternative/Blue Reform is nothing but a vehicle for the five ministers to hold onto their portfolios for another two years. After that Soini will most likely retire, so the new party's support, or lack of it, is not a major point of concern for him. The backbencher MPs who went along with Soini will be regretting their decision. Yet it will be hard for most of them to come back after the bitter statements they gave in June.