The Great Nordic Thread

[politicus]

When trying to place the Pirates ideologically this poll may be interesting:

Landsbanki was nationalized after the crash. 41,5% supports re-privatizing it.

IP 59,2
Bright Future 41,9
Pirates 38,8
PP 38,5
SDA 30,4
Left Greens 18,3

28,9% wants to sell public broadcaster RÚV, which would de facto create a right wing media monopoly.

IP 50,9
PP 38,2
Pirates 20,9
BF 17,7
SDA 15,1
Left Greens 11,7

13,2% wants to sell the public energy company Landsvirkjun (not a popular move among rural folks)

IP 20,3
Pirates 14,8
SDA 10,6
BF 8,7
Left Greens 5,3
PP 4,1

[politicus]

The government, SPP, Liberals and Conservatives have reached an agreement about a 2016 referendum on our exception from EU cooperation on legal affairs. They want the current total exception replaced with an opt-in model, that will allow Denmark to join the Europol while staying out of anything related to immigration policy, refugees etc. So it looks certain that there will be a referendum no matter how the election goes.

[politicus]

The four Icelandic opposition parties now demand a referendum on September 26 about whether Iceland shall cancel its application process or finish it and hold a referendum on the result. The idea of a referendum on the process is an old IP compromise idea and this might make it had for some IP Europhiles and moderates not to support it.

It is also a move with substantial popular suppport. When the government tried to annul the application process a year ago 53 555 persons - more than 20% of the voters - signed a petition demanding a referendum.

Maja Kocijančič, spokesperson for Commissioner for Enlargement Negotiations Johannes Hahn, confirms the Icelandic membership application has not been legally annulled by the letter from Sveinsson.

[politicus]

Is their an Icelandic poll tracker? I want to make a line graph for Wikipedia ...

I am not aware of any.

Try mailing Anders Svensson (Swedish journalist who has covered Iceland for decades) on islandsbloggen@gmail.com. He will know. Otherwise he publicizes most polls (with links) on his blog.

[politicus]

Immigration poll by IPSOS/MMI for Aftenposten. They did the same poll in Sweden and Norwegians are not significantly more anti-immigration than Swedes (as usually assumed). Just less enthusiastic about it.

Norwegians are actually slightly more positive towards taking more refugees than Swedes, but of course Sweden takes a lot more as it is.

http://www.aftenposten.no/nyheter/iriks/Innvandring-er-positivt-for-Norge-Det-mener-de-fleste-av-oss-7940622.html

Norway:

Immigration is mainly positive for Norway 54%
Immigration is mainly negative for Norway 12%
Neither 31%
Dunno 3%

Sweden:

Immigration is mainly positive for Sweden 63%
Immigration is mainly negative for Sweden 13%
Neither 21%
Dunno 3%

"Should we take more or less refugees?"

More:

Norway 32%
Sweden 26%

Less:

Norway 29%
Sweden 36%

Neither:

Norway 35%
Sweden 33%

Dunno:

Norway 3%
Sweden 5%

[politicus]

Yesterday MP Sigríður Ingibjörg Ingadóttir (46) announced, that she will challenges Árni Páll Árnason for the SDA chairmanship on the party's annual conference, which begins today.

APA has not been able to substantially improve the disastrous 12,9% SDA got in the 2013 election after he took over the leadership. SDA has consistently polled between 15-20%, typically in the lower end of that interval. Recent polls having the Pirate Party ahead of SDA has undermined APA's position further.

SII has been an MP since 2009 and claims she wants to at the same time modernize the party, and get back to focusing on basic SD issues like decent wages and better housing, social justice and human rights. She also states that SDA needs to acknowledge the mistakes the party committed in government and reconcile with the voters that left them over the unimplemented constitution, failure to implement  a new just fishing quota system and find a solution for debtridden families to keep their houses.

If she had challenged APA a month earlier the matter would have been decided by a membership vote and Icelandic observers stress that by taking it to the conference via a last moment ambush she weakens her own position if she were to win, but she may have figured it was her only chance to topple APA, or the last polls with the Pirates as the leading opposition party could have provoked her and the party left wing to take a shot at the leadership.

tl;dr version of SII message: Stop being insulted that the voters ditched us in 2013 (and especially stop implying that the ignorant fools got what they deserved) and start talking about things people actually care about instead of dreaming that EU-membership will solve all our problems.

[politicus]

SII is an economist, started in politics for Kvennalistan (Women's List) and has been active in Reykjavik municipal politics before being elected to the Althing, also former board member of the National Bank.

[politicus]

Árni Páll Árnason survived as SDA chairman by a single vote! And is obviously significantly weakened.

Árni Páll Árnason 241
Sigríður Ingibjörg Ingadóttir 240
Anna Pála Sverrisdóttir 1 (write-in candidate)

[politicus]

The Pirate attack of Icelandic politics continue. In a new MMR poll conducted March 18-19 and published today they are the biggest party on 29,1%, 6% ahead of the Independence Party!

Left Greens 9.0% (6)
SDA 16.3% (10)
Pirates 29.1% (19)
Bright Future 9.0% (6)
PP 11.6% (7)
IP 23.4% (15)
Others 1.7%

No less than 37,7% of respondents aged 18-49 would vote Pirate Party, while 19,4% of 50+ voters support them.

Only 20% of Icelanders trust the parliament by now and the rise of the Pirates is estimated to be due to the partys abilitiy to speak plainly and "sound like real people" and the simultanous crisis of all other parties for various reasons.

I suppose as populist/anti-politics parties goes the Icelandic Pirate Party is one of the better and more progressive options. A near total collapse in faith in the political class often results in far worse people than the poetician and her bohemian tech rebels.

[politicus]

They missed a trick not calling themselves 'Vikings' though

Would be a trashy cliche in Iceland (even more so than elsewhere).

I have tried to cover the problems and follies of the Icelandic government, so here is a short version of why the non-Pirate opposition parties are in crisis:


SDA:

Lost more than half their support last time and has despite almost two years in opposition against a government that has consistently managed to shoot itself in both feet not managed to increase their following significantly.

- Seems “pissed” at voters for not recognizing how great they are and for being gullible and ignorant last time when their traditional supporters voted PP in droves.

- Seems unable to address both bread and butter issues and more idealistic SD goals (which are quite popular in Iceland).

- Bizarrely focused on EU membership, even though there hasn’t been a yes majority for six years.

- Deeply divided between a Blairite right wing (New Labour has been a major influence in Iceland) and “traditionalists” and feminists on the left.

- Their relationship with the trade union movement seems mostly interrupted and they have nothing to say about the labour market, where impending strikes and chaos lie ahead.

- Has unclear policies on fiscal matters, housing and energy.


Bright Future:

Started out capturing most of SDAs urban middle class constituency and locates itself in a very similar place in the political spectrum.

- Are accused of being a photocopy of the Social Democrats and being an empty project party with no substance.

- Former Best Party strategist Heida Kristin Helgadóttir recently left as co-chairman due to difficulties in getting the co-leadership of the party to function and the big ego of party leader Guðmundur Steingrimursson. HKH was one of the strongest links back to the Best Party adventure and Jón Gnarr, and since Bright Future has largely built their popularity on that connection this has damaged them. They are basically just another centrist party by now.

- Being the son and grandson of two PP Prime Ministers Guðmundur Steingrimursson is also seen as too establishment by many.


Left Greens:

- Is to a large extent a one-woman band. Party leader Katrin Jakobsdóttir remains the most trusted and popular party leader, but her personal popularity does not tranlate well to her party. Would still be in serious trouble if she decided to quit.

- Has an ageing voter base (50+ last time, will be 55+ next time) and is seen as old fashioned by young people.

- Has a non-populist/very serious approach to politics with (too much) focus on what is politically impossible. Makes for a sharp difference to the "visionary" and can do-attitude Pirates.

- Suffers from almost chronic internal strife between True Leftists and Greenies.

- The party has a solid base among traditional left wingers in the fishing ports of Northern Iceland, but is in crisis in Greater Reykjavik where 70% of the population lives.

[politicus]

I should probably add that SDA is doing okay in many municipalities and Dagur B. Eggertsson is a popular Mayor of Reykjavik, but then the non-ideological nature of local politics makes it easier. Winning local elections with a charismatic mayoral candidate is not transferable to the national level.

Otherwise it is  basically just very hard to make the pieces fit together on the Icelandic left and create parties that both work internally and are large enough to make a difference.

You got:

-   Hard left: Northern fisherman + Reykjavik academics
-   Greens
-   Feminists
-   Trade unionists
-   Progressive middle class types

If the SDA left could put the  EU question on hold for at least a generation I  suppose you could split both parties and create:

- Hard Left (Left part of Left Greens)
- NDP style union of greenies, trade unions, feminists from LG Greens and SDA left wing)
- Social Liberals (SDA right wing + BF)

But then the NDP style party would have a development/conservationist cleavage, though that might be manageable. I do not have the impression Icelandic trade unions are hardcore anti-green.

The present situation where both left wing parties being internally divided and split roughly down the middle seems to be just about the worst possible, but it fits the EU cleavage, so it will likely continue.

[politicus]

Vísir poll on whether there should be a referendum on continued EU negotiations:

Yes 79%
No 21%

Bright Fure 97/3
SDA 90/10
Left Greens 89/11
Pirates 88/12

IP has a narrow Yes majority as well with 53%, while "only" 35% of PP voters support it.

Still massive No to the EU itself

29% Yes
71% No

No share among government voters:

PP 96%
IP 90%

They did not give the opposition figures - Pirates would have been interesting.

So the IP Europhiles are in a weak position, their support among their own is on a record low. IP being evenly divided is actually better for the party leadership han expected, but the 35% PP share for a referendum is higher - anti-parliamentarism and support for direct democracy is not just a left wing thing.

Also as Birgir Ármannson IP MP and Chairman of the Foreign Committee said in a TV interview:

"Iceland is, I think, the only country in Europe where it has become in some way an independent political objective to be in talks. This means, of course, a certain contradiction as negotiations with the European Union must include a determined will to join"

[politicus]

Birgitta Jonsdottir has declared that she does not want to be PM after the next election, but will instead try to create a formal alliance of the four opposition parties with the purpose of sending both a constitutional proposal and the "should we continue negotiating about EU-membership?" question to a referendum. If the voters approve of the constitution there will then have to be a second election to the Althing and the new Althing has to finally approve the new constitution.

The Pirates wants to mostly reuse the constitutional draft that the 2009-13 leftist government failed to implement (public ownership to all natural resources, direct democracy with citizens initiative and Iceland as one single constituency, thus eliminating rural overrepresentation, being the main things).

The leaders of the other three opposition parties are so far positive to the idea.

[politicus]

Capacent poll on who Icelanders trust - with politicians near the bottom. The Althing is at 18% (24% in 2014, but was 10% at its nadir in 2012), only the banks are less trusted than parliamentarians. It looks like the only thing Icelandic politicans can do to regain the voters trust is joining the Coast Guard. Anything to do with banks is near the bottom except the guy responsible for sending bankers in jail.

Coast Guard 81%
Police 77%
University of Iceland 71%
Fiscal crime prosecutor 61% (up 4% after getting a conviction of 4 Kaupþing Bank bosses)
National Health Service 60%
Ombudsman 54%
Attorney General 53%
-------------
Courts 43%
President 43%
Church of Iceland 36%
Municipal Council of Reykjavik 31%
Central Bank 29%
Ombudsman for debtors 28%
Financial Inspection 21%
Althing 18%
Commercial banks 12%

[politicus]

"direct democracy with citizens initiative and Iceland as one single constituency"

These two things seem contradictory.

The first part is about increased use of referendums and the second about how you elect the parliament.

[politicus]

I wonder what makes the Attorney General so well marked when the other political spots are justifiably low.

Non-political civil servant.

[politicus]

The Swedish Left Party in Malmø counter the Danish SD immigration campaign and the "If you come to Denmark, you will have to work" poster with "In Malmø you are welcome", but this will likely be a benefit for SD since Malmø (rightly or wrongly) is considered a symbol of failed integration by most Danes with big ghettos, threats against Jews and high crime etc.

[politicus]

I wonder when we get Swiss style ads in Denmark soon:

Many DPP posters and ads have that character - although generally more polished than that Swiss one. That type of poster is common for right wing populists across Europe.

[politicus]

Actually the DPP has been capable of much worse:



"Denmarks future - Your country - Your choice"



Roughly: "Follow (the) custom, or flee (the) country" (old proverb)

Last one from 2007 and the first one older. Their current propaganda is much more toned down.

[politicus]

The thing is that at this point it is basically an advantage for Danish politicians (outside of Radikale and the left wing) to be criticized by Swedes on immigration and integration. Sweden has been typecasted as a worst case scenario - "this is what happens if we are not careful enough and tough enough." So in that way those Swedish SAP politicians are playing their (small, but appreciated) part in the script seen from SocDem campaign staffers POV.

On welfare Danish politicians scare voters with "American conditions", but on immigration/integration it is "Swedish conditions."

Stuff like this video of disrespect towards PM Löfven when he visited the Biskopgården ghetto in Gothenburg to pay his respect after a couple of gang related murders (and could not remember the names of the dead) is seen as "typical Swedish".

[politicus]

We get it. Danish people are racist and don't like immigrants. We know, no need to try justify it.

Complex and paradoxical issue Max - I made an effortpost about it in the Denmark Election thread (one of the first pages).

Dunno where you get the "justification" stuff from - only analytical and descriptive stuff in the above, no normative allegations in either Marbury's or my posts.

[politicus]

The thing is that at this point it is basically an advantage for Danish politicians (outside of Radikale and the left wing) to be criticized by Swedes on immigration and integration.

Well it's a door that swings both ways. V and S aren't running these ads because they think it will affect the Danish Social Democrats or Danish opinion, they're using it to win political points at home, as Denmark is often seen as the worst example to what will happen if we give in to demands for stronger restrictions for immigrants. Them criticizing SD because of this ad might help SD, but it also helps themselves here at home by energizing their grassroots.   

That is obvious. I was just trying to explain the effect to non-Scandinavian posters.

[politicus]

Jón Gnarr, comedian and former mayor of Reykjavík, has finally ruled out running for president next year (which he was favoured to win) citing that he can not stand the political culture in Iceland, which he finds sad and pathetic.

"I get bored of impudence, insolence and rudeness. I try to avoid people who see that as a normal part of daily interaction. I am appalled at the thought to in this way become part of the sad and pathetic culture that is the Icelandic political culture. I can not stand opposite the "cheeky guys" again. I just can not offer myself and my wife that. I can not offer my boys that."

A bit sad because his program sounds pretty good:

"I think I would be a fine president. I love Iceland land and the people who live there and want nothing more than to see it grow and develop in the future. I believe I would be a pretty popular president. But I would also get involved in the international arena. I would take a clear stance on issues of equality and human rights, peace and climate issues. I would try to use the office and myself to advertise Iceland and attract filmmakers, musicians, writers and all those who have exciting and interesting ideas to bring to the country. But I know that I would provoke many. I would like to change much that I think is stagnant and outdated. I would try to eliminate what I think feels contrived or snobbish. "

He does not rule out running in 2020 when his boys will have left home, but this was probably his best chance.

With fifteen months to go before the presidential election, there are still no candidates and this leaves the door open for former leftist Ólafur Ragnar Grimsson (71) to go for a sixth term and try becoming "President Forever" .

Pundits say it probably mainly depends on the EU issue. If the government manages to get it off the agenda that reduces the likelihood that he continues. If the application lives on he is likely staying on to try to see if he can somehow block it.

If Grimsson does not want to run again it will be wide open. Former Prime Minister Þorsteinn Pálsson from the moderate, europhile IP left wing and former Foreign Affairs Minister Össur Skarphéðinsson from SDA were the two obvious elder statesmen type candidates and they have both declined.

[politicus]

After selling Dong Energy to Goldman Sachs for 31,5 billion kroner it now turns out the company is valued at 50 billion kroner after landing an order for three huge sea based wind mill parks with full public funding from the British state a mere three months after the sale. So a loss for the Danish tax payers of more than 3 billion dollars. Apparently everybody in the business knew about the order, but not - officially - the Danish Ministry of Finance. No post-deal price regulation mechanism was included in the contract as it is usual in trades with big orders just around the corner. So either incompetence/carelessness or foul play. Anyway, not good for the government in an election year.

[politicus]

Norway has gotten their own version of Feminist Initiative. Norwegian F! will run in the municipal election in Oslo and Bergen this year and try to get on the ballot to the Storting election in 2017.

From their manifesto:

"In Sweden, FI managed to get almost all parties to call themselves feminists , and Stefan Löfven and his new government proclaimed that they are a feminist government. Without FI this would not have been possible. We want the feminist wave that now washes over Norway to gush into the corridors of power. To do that we need to be an inclusive party that starts anew."

Unsurprisingly Socialist Left fear losing votes to the upstarts - as the Swedish Left Party did - and Deputy Leader Oddny Miljeteig says this will "paradoxically split the feminist strength on the left wing".