The Great Nordic Thread

[politicus]

His proposed policies include a ban on Muslim immigration and mosque building, reintroduce border controls, leave the EU and the undesirable UN conventions, privatize the national broadcaster DR, reintroduce discipline in the schools, and strict law and order laws.
Although Lars Hedegaard is a relatively famous face, it will be almost as hard for him to be elected. As an independent it is easier to run as he only needs about 200 signatures in the electoral region in which he is running. But he will need around 20 000 votes in an electoral region of around 600 000 voters to be elected, which will be difficult to achieve. He is supported by the small party Dansk Samling (Danish Unity), which is mentioned on the previous page, but his main problem is of course that most of his policies can be found (in a slightly less radical version) in DF who is set to have a very good election.

Its a minimum of 150 signatures, not "around 200".

For what it is worth Hedegaard has stated, that he was raised in a Social Democratc family and still consider hiself to be "on the left" and in favour of the welfare state. He is on the opposite side of Nationalpartiet on immigration and most other value based areas, but not really on the socioeconomic scale.

As a curiosum Nationalpartiet in the form "Nationalpartiet Danmark" was the name of a far right party - started by breakaway neo-Nazis - which was active in the 90s and early 00s. So especially with the added "We are Denmark" slogan which is used as a kind of subtitle they are getting pretty close (which is probably partly intended as they want to redefine far right symbols, but still weird).

[politicus]

Ten Kurdish men aquited for support of terrorism in the Copenhaghen City Court yesterday. They were accused of collecting 140 mio. kroner (roughly 25 mio. $) for PKK.

[politicus]

The Icelandic Prime Minister Sigmundur David Gunnlaugsons Progress Party is at a post-election low with 8,7% in a new poll in Fréttablaðið (down from 24,4% in the 2013 election), while their coalition partners in IP are at 30%+. The opposition would win 37-26 if those numbers were to hold. Bright Future, which was close to being Icelands biggest party a couple of months ago, is down to 10,6%, far behind SDA and also behind the Left Greens. For the first time since the election the two leftist parties are above 1/3 at 36,2%.

PP 8,7% 6 (-13)
IP 30,3% 20 (+1)

SDA 23,1%
Left Greens 13,1%
Bright Future 10,6%
Pirates 10,1%

Others 4,1%

[politicus]

Iceland has ... odd politics. Why is it the only country where Pirates have remained feasible for more than a year?

Mainly because their leader Birgitta Jonsdottir has charisma and has proven to be a very capable politician. Its the classical one (wo)man populist party. The second reason is infighting among the Left Greens that would be the obvious alternative for many of their young voters.

Why does everyone still support IP?

Firstly, the centre-right is at 39% in this poll, so the overall picture is that the centre-left is solidly ahead. Secondly, 30% for IP is still low historically speaking (it used to be a 40%+ party). Thirdly, where else would conservative voters go? Especially with PP in crisis. The governments first 1,5 years in office has made it very clear, that IP is a more professional outfit and has far fewer loons than PP. Apart from one scandal involving leaks of confidential info from the Justice Department, all other "affairs" and gaffes (and there has been a lot) have involved PP politicians.  

Why did Progress think it would be a good idea to campaign against Islamic immigration, in a country with pretty much no Islamic immigration?

It wasn't a decision approved by the national party, but one made single-handedly by the lead candidate in the Reykjavik municipal election in a desperate situation where the party stood to be wiped out in the capital (and it worked..). PPs immigration policy (which is quite liberal), hasn't been changed afterwards.

PP is not in crisis because of the "Islam-stunt", but mainly because it is by now adamantly clear that their big idea of blackmailing foreign creditors to cough up with enough money to help out debt ridden Icelandic home owners was a giant bluff. On top of that you can add lots of small scandals, village idiot type gaffes and a clearly incompetent Foreign Minister + messing up the EU question with denial of a referendum and a stop to negotiations before they were finished (which satisfies their core supporters, but not all the new suburban and mainly centrist voters they got last time).

[politicus]

The Independence Party has deep roots; even in 2009 it could only be knocked down to 24%. It's difficult to truly kill a party that has a true social base, even if it disgraces itself spectacularly.

The Independence Party having more members than all other parties combined with almost 10% of Icelandic voters as party members was certainly the main factor that allowed them to survive the crisis relatively unharmed, but there is also the sheer lack of a credible alternative on the right wing (which is still the case, since the rumoured pro-EU breakway party hasn't materialized yet).

Iceland is an odd country so it should come as no surprise that it also has odd politics. Given the events of the past decade it's maybe not surprising that political life there has only got stranger.

Even if Icelandic politics definitely still has its quirks the general trend has been towards normalization since the 2008-2010 rupture - where the citizens movement and joke parties challenged the system - most importantly with a new stable 6 party system replacing the traditional 4 party structure.

The pattern has been: old equilibrium-crisis-strong swing to the left-strong right wing correction in the 2013 election and now what seems to be a new equilibrium with 35-40% centre left, 35-40% centre-right and a social liberal party with 10-15% set to hold the balance of power if the numbers hold up. The only oddity in this party system is the Pirates, but having a populist party is relatively normal - Iceland's is just not of the common European right wing populist type - which reflects both its low level of non-European immigration and euroscepticism being a mainstream position already taking by (most of) the mainstream centre-right.

One of the last imbalances - the extremely weak left wing after the 2013 election - seems to be disappearing at the moment with the two traditional centre-left parties back above 35%.

... in a conservative society like Iceland.

As to Iceland being a conservative society I would say that Icelandic society exhibits its own peculiar mix of traditionalism, clientilism, nationalism, openmindedness, out of the box-thinking and very progressive attitudes and also combines rugged individualism and communal thinking in a way that is rather unique, but closer to certain parts of North America than continental Europe.

[politicus]

The pro-independence part of the Faroese opposition (Progress Party and Republicans) wants the Faroe Islands to gain control over their foreign policy, this demand comes after several conflicts between Denmark and the Faroes, the latest over sanctions against Russia, which the Faroese government has declined to follow, claiming it is a trade matter and not foreign policy!

The current Faroese centre-right government contains both unionist and separatist parties and this motion puts the pro-independence People's Party under pressure since they fully agree with its content, while the Lawman's ("Prime Minister") Union Party is strongly against it. The motion will come up for debate in the Løgting in early November.

Apart from disliking that the Danish parliament implemented sanctions against Russia without consulting the Faroese government about possible economic consequences, they are also disgruntled about not being consulted regarding Danish participation in the ongoing air campaign against the Islamic State - getting formally involved in yet another military operation without being heard.

The most bitter conflict between Denmark and the Faroes stems from the EU ban on Faroese mackerel and herring export and landing last year, where the ban required Copenhagen to side with Brussels in the quota dispute and ban Faroese fishing vessels from entering Danish ports and stopping the islands export to Denmark. The Faroese feel that the Danish government was much too compliant towards EU and should have declined to implement sanctions against a part of its own state (and I fully agree with them...).

"Should the same country that recently imposed sanctions on us ask us to boycott Russia? That would be insane”

Lawman Kaj Leo Johannesen (UP)

http://arcticjournal.com/politics/1104/mission-torshavn

#the Progress Party is not centrist as the article says, but the most right wing party on the Faroes.

See https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=199587.0 for the current parliamentary situation and position of the parties.

[politicus]

The Red-Greens and SPP want Denmark to recognize Palestine and will put forward a motion in the Folketing demanding the government to do so next week.

In their 2011 campaigns booth SD and the Social Liberals promised to recognize Palestine, but have since backtracked with arguments that it would undermine the peace process if some EU countries went solo on this. Now that Sweden has done it this argument has weakened (it was never a good one) and the government is forced to either give in or break yet anoter campaign promise (well, it has already been broken, but at least they have had an excuse until now..).
Minister of Foreign Affairs Martin Lidegaard (SocLib) says "its pointlesss to recognize Palestine before we now whether such a state has any possibility of existing."

The Palestinian "state" got diplomatic status in Denmark in 2013 and their representative became an ambassador.

[politicus]

With her resignation, half (4) of the current Conservative group will not be running at the next election which will lead to the long-awaited generational change in the party.

She's not even 50.  Hard to believe she'd be considered part of the old guard of any party.

Its a party headed towards irrelevance if they don't turn things around and as an ex-party chairman - and a flop at that - she is clearly a has-been.

[politicus]

With her resignation, half (4) of the current Conservative group will not be running at the next election which will lead to the long-awaited generational change in the party.

She's not even 50.  Hard to believe she'd be considered part of the old guard of any party.

Politicus is right, but there're also the aspect that she have had the political positions she could expect to get, she's a person who is on the way down not up.

Yeah, that is kinda the definition of a has been..

[politicus]

Icelands Minister of the Interior Hanna Birna Kristjánsdóttir resigned Friday to avoid a probably damaging report from the Ombudsman after her ministry leaked confidential info about asylum seekers.

She is staying on as Deputy Chairman for the Independence Party and MP, but if the report is sufficiently damaging this may be untenable.

Only a year ago HBK was by far the most popular centre-right politician in Iceland and perceived to be able to oust her party chairman Bjarni Benediktsson whenever it suited her, so this is a major downturn.

[politicus]

For the first time ever a poll (made for TV2) has DPP as the biggest party in Denmark. Last poll in brackets and the election result in the third column (right). All three big parties are still very close.

Social Democrats: 19,8 (20,9) 24,8

Social Liberals: 8,3 (8,5) 9,5

Conservatives: 6,2 (5,1) 4,9

SPP: 6,5 (6,1)  9,2

Liberal Alliance: 5,9 (5,8) 5,0

DPP: 21,2 (20,0) 12,3

Liberals: 20,9 (22,9) 26,7

Red-Green Alliance: 9,4 (9,3)  6,7


Red bloc: 44,8 (45,4) : 50,6

Blue bloc: 55,2 (54,6)  49,4

[politicus]

The Norwegian Student and Academics' International Assistance Fund (SAIH) has decided to launch a year long campaign to denounce the illegal Moroccan occupation of Western Sahara, they are working in colaboration with Polisario in Norway.

Launched under the motto "Western Sahara: 40 years is long enough", the campaign aims at calling upon the Government of Norway to act effectively so that the Saharawi people exercise their legitimate right to self-determination and independence.

It also seeks to intensify pressure on the UN Security Council to enlarge the mandate of the UM Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), when it is up to renewal next April.

The campaign will work in order that Norway divests from companies that do business in occupied Western Sahara in violation to international law and ethical rules.

The campaign will be marked by several activities to aware and sensitize on the question of Western Sahara, the last remaining issue of decolonization in Africa.

Norwegian Student and Academics' International Assistance Fund (SAIH) is a non-governmental organization working mainly on the support of education in poor countries. It is composed of more than 160.000 students and academics.

The Danish SD Youth League are als working on this, but EU has more or less given up on Western Sahara given Moroccos strategic importance for the union, so dunno if it does any good - and given the kind of government they have in Norway at the moment I am not even sure they can engage them. Still FFs of course.

[politicus]

Immigration to Iceland is on the rise again after the post-crash drop. 8,4% of Icelanders are now immigrants, up from 8.1% last year. If you incl. people with two foreign born parents its 9,5%, almost as high as the pre-crash record of 9,6% in 2009.

The three biggest immigrant groups are: Poles 36,9%, Filipinos 5,2% and Lithuanians, also at 5,2%. The other half is dispersed on a wide range of mainly European and Asian groups.

Unlike most place Icelandic immigrants are not clustered in the towns. The remote West Fiords have the highest immigrant share at 13,2%, followed by Suðurnes at 13,1%, whereas Norðurland West has the lowest share at 4,5%. Still, almost half of all immigrants (14.000) live in Reykjavík. Kjalarnes, a rural district incorporated in Reykjavik in 1998, has the highest share of any district at 36,5% of its 600 inhabitants, mainly Eastern European farmhands.

Only three rural municipalities with 50-60 inhabitants have no immigrants at all: Skorradalshreppur, Tjörneshreppur and Fljótsdalshreppur.

[politicus]

Finally we join the other Nordic countries in promoting equality in our laws.

Well, most of them. The Faroe Islands are still holding out. So you guys weren't the last.

[politicus]

From autumn 2015 Iceland introduces a "nature pass", which means Icelanders and tourists alike will have to pay 1500 Icelandic kronor to get entrance to the highlights of Icelandic nature - if located on public land. The pass is valid for three years. It is the massive increase in tourism and the maintenance costs resulting from damages and deterioration that lies behind this, but it is controversial because Iceland like most other Scandinavian countries has free access to all non-built up land - the so called "every mans right", which in Iceland dates back to at least  the Jonsbok law collection from 1281. Icelanders may be billed as part of their income tax to limit administration costs and free riding problems. Private land owners can join in and get a share in the proceeds.

It is not yet decided which areas will be included, but it is certain that Geysir, Þingvellir, Gullfoss and Landmannalaugar will be among them

The tourism association fears it will damage Icelands image as a land where you are free to roam wide open spaces and had preferred a room tax instead, and I fully agree with them. A nature pass will create countless conflicts and be very difficult to enforce in many areas.

EDIT: Left Greens also strongly against this, I doubt it will survive a change of government.

[politicus]

To our Finnish posters: Will gay marriage automatically become legal on Åland when it does in the rest of Finland or do their parliament have to approve it separately?

[politicus]

The Faroe Islands are still holding out. So you guys weren't the last.

That's interesting, it means that the Faroe Islands are both more conservative than Denmark, and have full autonomy in marriage and family matters too, am I correct?

Yup.

[politicus]

So... if the Faroe Islands now decide to do it too and work fast, they might still beat us.

Don't worry, they won't. The Faroe Islands are that Alabama of Northern Europe. Finland could drag this decision out for twenty years and you still would beat them.

Actually the two polls conducted on same sex marriage this year showed 61-62% support and 28-32% against, it is just that the SoCons are more influential than the socially liberal segment.

Due to the unionist/separatist split the odds are bad for a genuine centre-left or centre-left/social liberal coalition on the Faroes and a government will normally always include some SoCons in a strong enough position to block such legislation.

They have the socio-economic left-right scale replicated on each side of the unionist/separatist divide with their Conservatives on the separatist side and their Christian Democrats on the unionist side. Plus there are SoCon elements in the main unionist centre-right party the liberal Union Party.

Ideologically it looks like this (with the big parties underlined):

Unionist:

Social Democrats/Christian Democrats/Liberals

Separatist:

Left nationalists/Social Liberals/Conservatives/Very Conservatives

The purple ones are pro-gay rights, the browns are against. I think the best chance would be a government between the two big unionist parties (Social Democrats and the Union Party), but the Union Party is moving rightwards on economics at the moment and are currently in government  with the conservative Peoples Party, so that would require a change in their leadership.

[politicus]

2015 is going to be a major election year in the Nordic countries:

Three out of five sovereign nation states - Denmark, Finland and Sweden (+ Estonia for those of you that consider it Nordic ) - and two out of three autonomous areas (Faroe Islands and Åland). This must be some kind of record? I don't think there has ever been a year where a majority of both nation states and autonomous areas had parliamentary elections.

A shame the Hammond expense scandal in Greenland couldn't have waited a couple of months, so we would have had full house on autonomous areas, but they might have to hold a 2015 election anyway given the result... Norway is out of the question and Iceland is very unlikely because the government know it will lose power, but maybe if IP breaks up in euro-philes and euro-sceptics or get really tired of PP incompetence while their numbers keep getting up, though that is a long shot.

[politicus]

The Finns Party (or "The party formerly known as the True Finns") plan a motion of no confidence against the Finnish government over the common bank resolution fund for the Euro area,

"Finns can be responsible for the Finnish banking system, but Finns being responsible for the French, Italian and Greek banking systems, for example, is unacceptable,"

http://www.helsinkitimes.fi/finland/finland-news/politics/12921-finns-party-to-table-motion-of-no-confidence.html

[politicus]

Given that your Greens are essentially social liberals glossed over with a bit of environmentalism it really is remarkable how weak the Finnish left is compared to the rest of Scandinavia - 25% combined looks like something from Switzerland or thereabouts .

[politicus]

Former Deputy Chairman in IP Ólöf Nordal is new Minister of the Interior after HBK despite her not being an MP and currently living in Switzerland, where her husband is CEO of Alcoa. Party chairman Bjarni Benediktsson chose to sideline favourite Ragnheiður Ríkharðsdóttir, who is the most prominent europhile in IP.  He also stated that he chose Nordal because he has "total confidence" in her, which was interpreted by the pundits as a snub to the long list of IP politicians, that where eyeing the post, but didn't get it. Nordal is reasonably popular internally and a trained lawyer, which is the tradition for MoI in Iceland, so probably a good choice - but an unfortunate motivation.

[politicus]

Defence Attorney Thorkild Høyer has filed charges against four MPs for trying to pervert the cause of justice when they publicly denounced that terror convicted Sam Mansour wasn't expelled from Denmark (by a jury split 7-5). It is illegal in Denmark for politicians to try to influence an ongoing court case and since the case could still be appealed at the time the MPs commented Høyer claims that Pia Kjærsgaard, Martin Henriksen and Peter Skaarup from DPP and Inger Støjberg from the Liberals broke the law. The pols are, not surprisingly, up in arms about this and Kjærgård has called it "ridiculous and absurd" and labelled Høyer as "media horny", but I think it would be nice if this could help stop the incessant commenting on ongoing court cases from (especially) DPP.

EDIT: Høyer now adds immigration spokesman Karsten Lauritzen from the Liberals and legal policy spokeswoman Trine Bramsen from SD to the list.. 

[politicus]

The Danish government has agreed with SPP, the Liberals and the Conservatives about a referendum on the Danish exception to EU's judicial policy no later than March 2016. They want it replaced by an opt-in model, where Denmark can join common EU policy on the areas it chooses (which means no automatic participation on asylum policy). Polls show a majority for this model, but DPP wont be happy about this and it might strain the relationship between DPP and the Liberals. No info on whether the other EU countries have accepted this weird model, but I suppose the government has secured acceptance from the major players, otherwise it would be too incompetent, even for HTS & Co.

[politicus]

The Danish government has agreed with SPP, the Liberals and the Conservatives about a referendum on the Danish exception to EU's judicial policy no later than March 2016. They want it replaced by an opt-in model, where Denmark can join common EU policy on the areas it chooses (which means no automatic participation on asylum policy). Polls show a majority for this model, but DPP wont be happy about this and it might strain the relationship between DPP and the Liberals. No info on whether the other EU countries have accepted this weird model, but I suppose the government has secured acceptance from the major players, otherwise it would be too incompetent, even for HTS & Co.

This was a part of the Lisbon Treaty, which states that Denmark has the option to turn its automatic opt-out model into an opt-in model similar to the British and Irish one. The pro-EU parties then made this agreement which gives each of them a veto on proposals from the other parties to opt-in to anything concerning asylum and immigration. This means that the likelyhood of Denmark opting in to any EU rules on asylum is quite small, and is also an attempt to stop the obvious DPP attack line of "now our strict asylum policies will be weakened significantly". Not that it will probably stop them from using it, but it can perhaps make it less effective.

Okay, I missed that.

It will be a hard campaign for DPP because they will need to get around the fact that their position is tantamount to de facto being against efficient participation in Europol. They will try to make it seem like we can participate in everything important regarding Europol without changing the status quo - but it will be a hard sell. I think the law and order crowd will vote yes - that will get them the tough immigration policies/full Europol-combo.