Republican Primary headed for a deal?

[Whacker77]

Although Romney won Ohio and five other states, the manner in which he did it has not gone unnoticed by conservative pundits and other members of the media.  Without a steep financial advantage, it seems pretty clear Romney would not be winning the competitive states.  Michigan and Ohio best illustrate that.

The net result is Romney has once again failed to effectively put away the weakest field in modern presidential politics.  Santorum was allowed to fight another day and will likely do significant damage to the perception of Romney over the next month.  Losses in Kansas, Alabama, and Mississippi along with other unfavorable terrain will damage Romney's weak frontrunner status even more.  Romney does have Illinois in his sights though.

While Romney will likely be the nominee, it seems clear to me he will do so without winning the Southern states (we all know Florida is different).  It also now seems likely Romney will not be able to win 1144 delegates through the voting process.  In order to get over the magic number, he'll likely have to strike some sort of deal with Ron Paul.  God only knows what that might produce.

I've always hoped for a scenario that would produce a new candidate, but that is not likely.  While a contested convention could produce a new candidate, it's far more likely a deal will be struck that puts one of the four current contestants in the driver's seat.  Regardless, it now seems the nomination will be a symbolic victory as the process has and will continue to do great harm to Romney.

[Likely Voter]

Romney came into Super Tuesday with a majority of delegates and he left with an even bigger majority of delegates. So how is it suddenly "clear" that he will not end the primary season with a majority.

Sure it's possible that he will only end with a plurality, but winning with a majority still seems to be the more likely outcome.

And if he comes out short, he will work out a deal with whoever can put him over the top. Assuming Paul has enough delegates to make up the shortfall he seems a likely choice as he can probably be bought with some additions of his issues to the platform and a prime time speaking slot. Santorum would likely demand space on the ticket. Not sure what Gingrich would ask for, but they dont get a long so he is not likely to work with Newt.

[cavalcade]

Interesting...I think the primary may be headed for a deal because it is very likely that Romney will go to the convention with a majority of delegates, but he definitely won't lock up that majority until late May/early June.  So it's better to wrap up the race now, let him stop putting his foot in his mouth, and focus on Obama.

[Wisconsin+17]

It's simple math - Romney did ok - but he didn't do well enough to secure himself the nomination.

It's rare that it would go this late, past Super Tuesday.

As for this field being weak, I'm not so sure you can say that anymore.

Here's the list of American candidates with 7 or more states won in their respective primaries who did not go on to win the nomination:

Gary Hart - 26
Ronald Reagan - 24
Hillary Clinton - 21

Ted Kennedy - 12
Mitt Romney - 11
Jesse Jackson - 10
Mike Huckabee - 8
Rick Santorum - 7
Al Gore - 7
Henry Jackson - 7

There are two tiers.

Tier one - the middle (where Santorum is now), and Tier 2 (which is brokered convention).

This year is not as divided as it was back in 2008 (with Romney getting 11 and Huckabee .

Let me say it right now - Rick Santorum has won more states than Al Gore did in his bid.

I don't think we're quite into the realm of brokered convention, but we are getting there. Santorum does well on Saturday, and sweeps all 4, we're headed to a brokered convention.

[Whacker77]

Romney came into Super Tuesday with a majority of delegates and he left with an even bigger majority of delegates. So how is it suddenly "clear" that he will not end the primary season with a majority.

Sure it's possible that he will only end with a plurality, but winning with a majority still seems to be the more likely outcome.

And if he comes out short, he will work out a deal with whoever can put him over the top. Assuming Paul has enough delegates to make up the shortfall he seems a likely choice as he can probably be bought with some additions of his issues to the platform and a prime time speaking slot. Santorum would likely demand space on the ticket. Not sure what Gingrich would ask for, but they dont get a long so he is not likely to work with Newt.

Despite winning, Romney can't shake the zombies chasing him.  I didn't realize this, but there are only four or five winner-take-all states left.  That means Romney may keep winning, but with just 40% wins he's not going to come close to the 1144 mark.  Jay Cost wrote today on NRO Romney will have a strong plurality of delegates, but not a majority.

The reason it now seems likely he won't earn 1144 through the voting process is because he failed to deliver a knockout blow that would effectively end the resistance to him.  Heading into yesterday, the spin was Romney was closing fast in TN and GA while pulling away in OH.  Yet everywhere we look, he underperform the expectations.

[Whacker77]

One thing to consider about any deal is this.  Most likely Romney would have to cut a deal with Paul.  I doubt Santorum or Newt would be a forgiving mood after the firebmbing Romney gave them.  If there is a deal between Romney and Paul, it's easy to imagine Paul's supporters ignoring any deal and going their own way on the voting.  That's a doomsday scenario for Romney, but we're a long way from that.

[Wisconsin+17]

I have Santorum handicapped at +200 right now, with nobody dropping vs Romney in the remaining states.

[Politico]

It's simple math - Romney did ok - but he didn't do well enough to secure himself the nomination.

Even if Romney had been running unopposed since right before Iowa, he would still not have enough delegates to secure the nomination.

It will take an act of God to prevent Romney from gaining a plurality of delegates, and he will most likely gain a majority. Obviously this race is not over, but it is closer to the finish than the start. If Santorum ever wants another lobbying job in Washington, he better drop out soon? Same goes for Captain Moon Base.

[Wisconsin+17]

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A win in the South and a win by 10+ in OH, and a win in ND would have done it.

Romney's had a couple chances. A blowout in Iowa would have done it. A win in South Carolina, would have done it.

Wins in CO + MN + MO would have done it.

He might win a plurality, but that will depend on Newt staying in. Newt drops, Santorum can take it outright.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney won't have to make a deal with any of the other candidates.  There are enough unpledged delegates out there that if he falls just short of a majority with the pledged delegates, he can try to call in some favors with the unpledged delegates to get them to back him.  Isn't that what Walter Mondale did in 1984, when he was just shy of a majority of delegates from the primaries?  (And heck, Obama also relied on Super Delegates back in 2008.  He won a bare majority of pledged delegates, but it wouldn't have had a majority of all delegates if he hadn't received enough of the unpledged delegated.)

Obviously, if Romney is more than just a little shy of 50%, that won't necessarily be enough.  But I doubt that'll happen.

[Wisconsin+17]

And what happened to Walter Mondale in '84?

Also - Mondale was actually beaten in the state count.

[Mr. Morden]

And what happened to Walter Mondale in '84?

Of course, he lost badly in the general election, but I thought we were just talking about the process of securing the nomination?  I'm just talking about the mechanism by which Romney (or anyone else, for that matter) secures the nomination.

[Likely Voter]

Despite winning, Romney can't shake the zombies chasing him.

 
Well again he has won more delegates than all of those zombies combined

I didn't realize this, but there are only four or five winner-take-all states left.  That means Romney may keep winning, but with just 40% wins he's not going to come close to the 1144 mark.  

That assumes he only wins delegates in states he wins. So far Romney has won delegates in EVERY contest. He is the only one who can say that

The reason it now seems likely he won't earn 1144 through the voting process is because he failed to deliver a knockout blow that would effectively end the resistance to him.  

How is that a reason? You dont need to elimate your competion to win, you just need a majority of delegates. And again he has won a majority of delegates so far with the competition he has had and that competition shows no sign of getting stronger.

Heading into yesterday, the spin was Romney was closing fast in TN and GA while pulling away in OH.  Yet everywhere we look, he underperform the expectations.

He won 6 out of 10 states and came in second in the 3 of the remaining 4, and he won OH, a state where he was trailing a week before. He won more GA delegates than Santorum and more TN delegates than Newt.

Romney's path is not pretty, and it is not guaranteed. But he is on a path to wrapping this thing up in May or June. It is possible that Santorum and/or Gingrich could surge and prevent him from getting a majority, but there is no evidence that this Santorum/Gingrich surge is the most likely outcome.

Personally I am hoping to see an open convention, and it is possible. But it certainly isn't the likely outcome.

[Torie]

I suspect the odds are about 2 to 1 that Mittens will have an absolute majority of the delegates, particularly if you add in the bulk of the super "uncommitted" delegates, most of whom will vote for Romney.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I'd guess Romney will win a plurality and strike a deal with Paul (or something like that), but its about as likely that he'll win outright. Depends on how well Gingrich + Paul do from here on out, and how the state conventions go.

After Texas, though, it should be easy to call. If Romney wins, he gets a majority, if not then we get a juicy brokered convention.

[Whacker77]

In states where there has been a real contest, all or most of the candidates on the ballot, Romney has essentially failed to garner more than 40% of the vote.  If that trend continues and Santorum stays strong in March with wins in KS, AL, MS, and LA, it seems unlikely there would be some massive move to Romney that would ensure 1144 gained.

Perception is reality and the perception today is Romney, depsite winning 6 of 10 or gaining more delegates, didn't have a good night because of his poor performances in the South.  That's why Santorum isn't gone and that's why Newt is still sculking around.  A month from now, Santorum could have Romney back on his heels with 4 wins to Mitt's 1.  If that's the case, why would the April contests become easy wins for Romney, espcially with most being proportional?

[Likely Voter]

I would put it at
Romney wins majority of delegates: 80%
Romney + Super/Uncommitted = Majority: 10%
Romney ends with plurality and cuts deal before convention 9.9%
something else 0.1%

[Wisconsin+17]

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Mondale was an aberration. It's possible that Romney could be the Walter Mondale of the Republican party, by winning a nomination despite losing the state count.

He certainly seems to be having trouble rallying folks around him.

[Whacker77]

Here's the math John Avlon of Daily Beast did.  

Consider this: if Mitt wins every remaining all-or-nothing state but one, and half of the remaining proportional delegates, he would likely still fall short of the magic nomination number of 1,144—which would force him to rely on unpledged delegates, the Republican version of the infamous Democratic super-delegates in 2008, to claim his party’s mantle.

And if Romney musters only 40 percent of the proportional delegates going forward—equivalent to his share of the popular vote total to date—it would mean the first Republican race undecided when the convention opened in a generation.

Having read that, why is there any reason to believe Romney will suddenly begin to get 50% when he hasn't been able to so far?  Why would Paul, Newt, or Santorum get out knowing this?  Of course, if Romney wins one state next week, this all changes.

[Likely Voter]

Here's the math John Avlon of Daily Beast did.  

Consider this: if Mitt wins every remaining all-or-nothing state but one, and half of the remaining proportional delegates, he would likely still fall short of the magic nomination number of 1,144.

That simply doesn't add up.

Mitt needs 757 to get to 1144 (according to CNN)
There are 1565 unallocated delegates.

Romney only needs 48.4% of the remaining delegates to win. So obviously if he got half he would win even bigger and if he got half of some and all of the remaining (the WTA) he would win even bigger

[Wisconsin+17]

Romney's not going to win half the outstanding votes.

They just aren't weighted to him. Even with Paul in the race, and Gingrich - Santorum has a 200 delegate advantage from here on out over Romney.

[Likely Voter]

Again. You dont need a majority of votes to win a majority of delegates. In 2008 John McCain was the presumptive nominee by March and he still ended up with only 46% of the popular vote.

[Torie]

Sigh. Again some states are essentially winner take all (mostly Mittensville), and some are much more proportional (mostly Mittenlessville). You know, you don't need mittens as much in warmer climates.

[Mr. Morden]

I would put it at
Romney wins majority of delegates: 80%
Romney + Super/Uncommitted = Majority: 10%
Romney ends with plurality and cuts deal before convention 9.9%
something else 0.1%

Perhaps, but I think there's more gray area between these categories than some might think.  As Nate Silver points out here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/02/25/the-g-o-p-s-fuzzy-delegate-math/

there are actually quite a few delegates whose allocation is based on the primaries and caucuses, yet whose vote at the convention isn't exactly bound.  So even if Romney comes up a bit short, then he could potentially try to persuade some of the Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum delegates to switch sides even on the first ballot.  And even if that isn't enough, then Romney could still try to work on flipping some of the delegates who are bound on the first ballot to just swap sides on the second ballot.  If he has enough such support lines up before the convention, then he's the de facto nominee, and there won't actually be any drama at the convention itself.

In short, "cutting a deal" probably won't mean cutting a deal with any of the other candidates.  It would mean persuading individual delegates who are currently backing other candidates.  If he's actually forced to cut a deal with Gingrich, Paul, or Santorum, then that would be seen as a sign of weakness, so he'll try to avoid that at all costs.  Better to just lean on individual delegates.

[Lincoln Republican]

Like I correctly predicted the Romney win in Ohio, I will predict Romney wins a majority of delegates before the convention.

Santorum has not really broken out of, for the most part, primary and caucus victories except in states where evangelical Christians comprise a very major sector of the Republican caucus and primary vote.  So Santorum's prospects are, at best, dismal, and most realistically, non existent.

In spite of his victory in Georgia, Gingrich is dead in the water.

Paul will go through this whole process without, almost certainly, not winning a state.

Whether it is caucus and primary delegates gained through the caucus and primary process, or a combination of this and unpledged delegates, Romney will most asuredly gain a majorty of delegates prior to the convention.

Take this to the bank, there will not be a brokered convention, although those of you who wish to do so, are free to continue to fantasize about this fictional recurring dream of yours.