OH: CNN/Time: Obama with a 4% Lead over Generic Republican

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

New Poll: Ohio President by CNN/Time on 2012-03-04

Summary: D: 49%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

3. Suppose the presidential election were being held today. Would you say you are more likely to vote

for Barack Obama or for the Republican Party’s candidate for president? (IF UNSURE:) As of

today, who do you lean more toward? (RANDOM ORDER)

Depends Other Would not No

Obama Republican (vol.) (vol.) vote (vol.) Opinion

Registered Voters

March 1-4, 2012 49% 45% 1% 1% 2% 2%

All Respondents

March 1-4, 2012 48% 43% 1% 2% 4% 3%

[Tender Branson]

Inks, we usually are not entering "generic Republican" polls to the database, because there is no "generic Republican" ...

[Franzl]

Inks, we usually are not entering "generic Republican" polls to the database, because there is no "generic Republican" ...

Although I'd imagine a generic Republican would poll better than the clowns that are actually candidates

[Stranger in a strange land]

Inks, we usually are not entering "generic Republican" polls to the database, because there is no "generic Republican" ...

Although I'd imagine a generic Republican would poll better than the clowns that are actually candidates

Indeed.

[Health Over Wealth]

What do people picture when they hear the term 'Generic Republican'?

[pbrower2a]

What do people picture when they hear the term 'Generic Republican'?

Ronald Reagan, again. Richard Nixon before Watergate. Dwight Eisenhower, perhaps?

Maybe that tells us how effective President Obama is.

[5280]

What do people picture when they hear the term 'Generic Republican'?

Ronald Reagan, again. Richard Nixon before Watergate. Dwight Eisenhower, perhaps?

Maybe that tells us how effective President Obama is.

Generic Republican...

[Health Over Wealth]

What do people picture when they hear the term 'Generic Republican'?

Ronald Reagan, again. Richard Nixon before Watergate. Dwight Eisenhower, perhaps?

Maybe that tells us how effective President Obama is.

I doubt that most Americans in this day and age even know that Eisenhower was a Republican.

[pbrower2a]

Here's an estimate based on three  data points -- the three Time-CNN polls of President Obama vs. "Generic Republican" in three states (GA, OH, and VA). This is not a projection of how well any current Republican candidate would do against President Obama

Overwhelming R (15%+)
Strong R     (10-14.99%)
Decisive R       (4-9.99%)
Marginal R       (1-3.99%)

under 1% either way -- white

Marginal D       (1-3.99%)
Decisive D       (4-9.99%)
Strong D    (10-14.99%)
Overwhelming D (15%+)

Arizona? Reversing the Favorite Son effect would make it more likely than Georgia to go for President Obama. I use 4% as the margin for a very-likely event because the margin of error is just under 4% for most polls.  Indiana was about 3% more R than Ohio in 2008.