MA-SEN: Scott Brown leads by 8

[krazen1211]

http://www.masslive.com/politics/index.ssf/2012/03/scott_brown_leads_elizabeth_wa.html


The poll revealed that Brown remains popular in the Bay State, with 49 percent of those surveyed saying they would vote for him if the election was held today. Warren, a consumer advocate and Harvard Law School professor vying for the Democratic nomination to take on Brown in November's general election, pulled 41 percent of the projected vote.




Dominating! But I guess this is the 4th poll that is, uh, junk poll!

[krazen1211]

PPP should poll this.

Well, if you're the type who likes outliers, you would then perhaps be able to toss out 4 polls in favor of the 5th.

How amusing! As is of course the excuse gallery.

[krazen1211]

I, at least, am not making excuses.

You, however, are making excuses for trash polls (actually, no, you're not even bothering to, you're just insulting us for pointing out that they're trash). The only non-trash poll out of this race recently is the Rasmussen, which should be almost as much to your liking as the rest of them, so why not just go with that one and stop trying to get us to accept polls with questionable crosstabs, leading questions, etc.?

Well, when the line 'junk poll!' is tossed out with such frequency its very difficult to observe which polls are acceptable. At least other than those that show the Democratic party in the lead.

Indeed, some polls that show Obama winning solidly while the companion Senate Candidate is losing are considered 'excellent polls!' for the former, but 'junk poll!' for the latter. But they are the same poll!

For this race, for instance, certain people have concocted into their mind that Scott Brown cannot win 20% of the Democratic vote, despite numerous polls showing so. One would venture to say that after a while the polls are correct and the people might just be wrong.

[krazen1211]

I, at least, am not making excuses.

You, however, are making excuses for trash polls (actually, no, you're not even bothering to, you're just insulting us for pointing out that they're trash). The only non-trash poll out of this race recently is the Rasmussen, which should be almost as much to your liking as the rest of them, so why not just go with that one and stop trying to get us to accept polls with questionable crosstabs, leading questions, etc.?

Well, when the line 'junk poll!' is tossed out with such frequency its very difficult to observe which polls are acceptable. At least other than those that show the Democratic party in the lead.

Indeed, some polls that show Obama winning solidly while the companion Senate Candidate is losing are considered 'excellent polls!' for the former, but 'junk poll!' for the latter. But they are the same poll!

For this race, for instance, certain people have concocted into their mind that Scott Brown cannot win 20% of the Democratic vote, despite numerous polls showing so. One would venture to say that after a while the polls are correct and the people might just be wrong.

I'm skeptical of this because I'm a Massachusetts Democrat. I'm not denying that these polls are reasonable approximations of the current state of the race but I think that because of the peculiarities of my state they have even less predictive value for eight months from now than some polls in other states or Presidential polls, which is already low.

For future reference, don't use uni polls unless they're in partnership with someone or something else, polls that ask leading questions, or polls that have crosstabs that instinctively strike politically cognizant members of the crosstabs in question as unlikely to hold or downright bizarre, and you should be fine. Most of the polls that showed Warren leading a couple of months ago were actually not great polls either, so you should be if anything happy about this.

The facts show that Scott Brown successfully won a statewide election in Massachusetts in 2010, where he received (if you believe exit polls) roughly 23% of Democrats at the least suggests that reaching 20% is at the minimum not 'downright bizarre'. Especially when numerous polls vs Elizabeth Warren have shown so, and especially when the only data to the contrary is the 'because I said so!' argument.

As it stands, Scott Brown is clearly angling for culturally and socially conservative working-class voters who often feel alienated by the Democratic liberal establishment.