GA: Survey USA: Republicans only barely ahead of Obama

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Georgia President by Survey USA on 2012-02-26

Summary: D: 42%, R: 49%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

49-42 Romney/Obama
46-43 Paul/Obama
47-43 Santorum/Obama
48-44 Gingrich/Obama

Favorables:

Obama: 41% favorable, 48% unfavorable, 9% neutral
Romney: 24% favorable, 39% unfavorable, 30% neutral
Paul: 18% favorable, 37% unfavorable, 32% neutral
Santorum: 25% favorable, 31% unfavorable, 32% neutral
Gingrich: 32% favorable, 37% unfavorable, 22% neutral

[Tender Branson]

Not too bad.

I think Obama should push hard for Georgia, he's at 27/28% with Whites there and has only slightly more than 80% of Blacks.

It's certainly good if the Republicans have to invest a ton of money here that they could spend elsewhere.

[Tender Branson]

One problem though, In the survey, 67% of people they polled were white. If I remember correctly, the proportion of white voters in the electorate in 2008 was well under that, somewhere in the low 60's. Georgia's minority population has continued to grow in the last 4 years as well.

Maybe I'm a novice at polls, but is 67% the percentage of the electorate they expect to be white here in November? Because if so, I have a few more points to make.

I think these numbers are OK.

In 2008, the Exit Poll showed 65% White, 30% Black, 3% Latino, 1% Asian, 1% Others

Obama lost Whites by 23-76 and won Blacks by 98-2.

But because Blacks/Others are slightly less likely this year to turn out, the SUSA numbers are probably right.