Howard Dean wins the 2004 Democratic nomination.

[Jerseyrules]

He would probably win. Really, if such a bad candidate as Kerry almost won, it's not hard to see someone as charismatic as Dean kicking Dumbya's ass.

And how is Dean better than Kerry?

Because he at least was firm in his convictions.  He lost because he flip-flopped repeatedly on the Iraq War and Bush Tax Cuts, particularly the former, thus alienating the average Joe, and he also came off as too "richy rich"; Romney has the same problem.

[Jerseyrules]

Thus Kerry made the same mistake Willkie did in 1940; also, another mistake, similar to Willkie's, was underestimating the power of incumbency and believing polls too much.

[Jerseyrules]

By no means was Kerry a solid candidate, but I still disagree that Dean would have been a better candidate. Dean had served as Governor of Vermont for years and was still little-known. Ray Goldfield's assessment is spot-on: Dean would've come off as too much of a leftist and inexperienced, which really would've crippled him in the midst of Iraq War debate. There's no way he would've been able to debate Bush as well as Kerry did. And then there's his temper.

He'd come across as strong and a man of conviction IMO.

[Jerseyrules]

If Dean doesn't have a melt down, then he is a much more exciting candidate to win the nomination then Kerry. He very well could of gotten the base riled up, he had grass roots support with the Deanites, and could be the first candidate to use the internet as a fund raising and grass roots support getter. Could Dean of won in 2004 in the GE? Maybe. But it would come down to what the campaign ends up being about. Dean didn't have the record that Kerry did, so foreign policy is a weaker issue with him but if he can effectively portray Bush as an elitist giving tax cuts to the rich, and excite the base enough to raise voter turnout across the board then he could of totally won.

This is what I have been trying to say, albeit less eloquently than you did.  However, the Democrats would do worse in Congressional races, IMO, in order to ensure a Dean victory, as they would likely divert congressional funds towards the presidential race to make up for the surely wide gap in the initial post-convention polls.