Virginia was drifting D with respect to the USA as a whole -- and still is.
Virginia went from going to Republicans in blowouts (1928, 1952, 1956) to being much more R than America as a whole (it was the only former Confederate State to not vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976, Carter winning every state surrounding it, and it never voted for Bill Clinton) -- to being on the fringe of contention in 2000 and 2004 in close races. In 2008 and 2012 it was still more R than the US as a whole...
Virginia began to take characteristics of a Northern state as it urbanized, and from the 1940's to the 1980's, that meant going Republican. From 2006 becoming more Northern made it increasingly Democratic. It might have been possible to see the 2008 and 2012 elections as having Barack Obama as the ideal Democrat to win the state... but it was more D than the USA as a whole in 2016.
Virginia seems to be one of the most anti-populist states in the Union, which may explain much.
Agreed with you on all the above but VA was actually very slightly more D than the country in 2012, about 0.02% more. A first since 1948!
