Virginia puts Bush over top...

[Tartarus Sauce]

Maybe a better lesson is to not arrogantly talk about your current political alignments as if they’ll be the exact same in 12 years, let alone ing 40, lol.

No, we must continue the time-honored tradition of projecting into the future based on only the most recent trends. Otherwise, what purpose would this forum serve?

[morgankingsley]

This bump is brutal

[SInNYC]

Maybe a better lesson is to not arrogantly talk about your current political alignments as if they’ll be the exact same in 12 years, let alone ing 40, lol.

No, we must continue the time-honored tradition of projecting into the future based on only the most recent trends. Otherwise, what purpose would this forum serve?

I think you mean:
No, we must continue the time-honored tradition of projecting into the future based on only the most recent election. Otherwise, what purpose would this forum serve?

[One Term Floridian]

Virginia was drifting D with respect to the USA as a whole -- and still is.

Virginia went from going to Republicans in blowouts (1928, 1952, 1956) to being much more R than America as a whole (it was the only former Confederate State to not vote for Jimmy Carter in 1976, Carter winning every state surrounding it, and it never voted for Bill Clinton) -- to being on the fringe of contention in 2000 and 2004 in close races. In 2008 and 2012 it was still more R than the US as a whole...

Virginia began to take characteristics of a Northern state as it urbanized, and from the 1940's to the 1980's, that meant going Republican. From 2006 becoming more Northern made it increasingly Democratic. It might have been possible to see the 2008 and 2012 elections as having Barack Obama as the ideal Democrat to win the state... but it was more D than the USA as a whole in 2016.

Virginia seems to be one of the most anti-populist states in the Union, which may explain much.   

Agreed with you on all the above but VA was actually very slightly more D than the country in 2012, about 0.02% more. A first since 1948!

[Boomerberg2020]

This is like the threads that said WV/KY would trend Dem with Hillary as the nominee 😂

[brucejoel99]

remember all the talk of kerry possibly winning virginia?

I believe Governor Warner said that it was going to be "in play".

WA HA HA HA . . .

Yes, most definetly a rediculous statement

most democrats see the state becoming closer soon, i believe the opposite will be true, VA,NC,GA,FL, andTX will soon become even greater electoral prizes and they will all be republican

Virginia is going to be a real swing state in 2008.  The same margin was kept as 2000 (I know it was actually larger considering Nader) even as Bush increased his national popular vote.  Virginia, along with North Carolina, are two states where Bush didn't substantially increase his popular vote.

you guys said that 4 years ago.........

.........& yet, look at what happened just 4 short years later.

[It’s so Joever]

remember all the talk of kerry possibly winning virginia?

I believe Governor Warner said that it was going to be "in play".

WA HA HA HA . . .

[Alcibiades]

What’s interesting is that VA was lumped in with the rest of the South and Appalachia as only being winnable with a white moderate #populist Dem. To be honest, even in 2005 I’m not sure how they arrived at that conclusion, considering how different its socioeconomic and cultural profile was.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What’s interesting is that VA was lumped in with the rest of the South and Appalachia as only being winnable with a white moderate #populist Dem. To be honest, even in 2005 I’m not sure how they arrived at that conclusion, considering how different its socioeconomic and cultural profile was.

Look at Mark Warner 2001 campagin, it was pretty populist. In 2004 Warner was the only Dem who really had a blue print of winning in VA and Jim Webb arguably was the only dem who could have won in 2006 as well.

NoVa wasnt just close to being there yet for dems to win of margins there , and even in 2008 it wouldnt have been enough without Lehman

[Catalyst138]

What’s interesting is that VA was lumped in with the rest of the South and Appalachia as only being winnable with a white moderate #populist Dem. To be honest, even in 2005 I’m not sure how they arrived at that conclusion, considering how different its socioeconomic and cultural profile was.

What exactly is a “moderate” populist?

[The Mikado]

What’s interesting is that VA was lumped in with the rest of the South and Appalachia as only being winnable with a white moderate #populist Dem. To be honest, even in 2005 I’m not sure how they arrived at that conclusion, considering how different its socioeconomic and cultural profile was.

What exactly is a “moderate” populist?

In the context of the time, they meant "a Democrat who is pro-war, anti-gay, and favoring restrictions on abortion." Which...train left pretty quickly on that style of person, who went fully extinct around 2010.

[Chips]

I'm shocked Virginia wasn't closer in hindsight. Sure, I wasn't shocked Bush won the state but in hindsight I'm surprised it wasn't by a 5 point margin rather than an 8 point margin.

Some Democrats even thought Kerry could've been competitive there and I think he could've been if he had actually put resources in.

[brucejoel99]

A lot of these comments seem eerily similar to those saying that GA is fool’s gold.

Well would ya know it, Georgia wasn't "fool's gold"

[E-Dawg]

Although Bush did win the state in 2004, him being the first Republican since 1964 to lose Fairfax County was clearly an ominous sign for the GOP's future in the state, Similarly, Trump 2016 losing Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry counties in Georgia for the first time since Carter was an ominous sign for the GOP in that state.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

A lot of these comments seem eerily similar to those saying that GA is fool’s gold.

Well would ya know it, Georgia wasn't "fool's gold"

I knew it 11 months ago

[vileplume]

A lot of these comments seem eerily similar to those saying that GA is fool’s gold.

Well would ya know it, Georgia wasn't "fool's gold"

People have a habit of assuming that the electoral map will remain static and that their party in particular won't lose any state that is at present considered relatively safe. Yes many blue avatars were wrong on the Democrat's prospects in Virginia and Georgia but red avatars are often wrong too. Prior to 2016 remember all those hot takes about the Democrats supposed rust belt firewall and how Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were 'unwinnable' for the GOP?

It would help discussion a lot if people were more objective and less partisan in their psephological takes, but I very much doubt that will ever happen.

[Chips]

Although Bush did win the state in 2004, him being the first Republican since 1964 to lose Fairfax County was clearly an ominous sign for the GOP's future in the state, Similarly, Trump 2016 losing Cobb, Gwinnett, and Henry counties in Georgia for the first time since Carter was an ominous sign for the GOP in that state.

[Chips]

In 2096 when a Democrat finally wins VA, the Democrats here will all say "I told you it was trending Democrat!".

Travel back 88 years.

[Schiff for Senate]

Virginia's voting record is very easily divided into 3 distinct phases. The first was from 1789 to 1820 where it merely voted for the Virginian regardless of party. This phase came to an end in 1824 when no Virginian ran. The second phase was from 1828 to 1948 where it voted for the Democrat all but 3 time (in 1860 when the Democrats had a schism, in 1872 when the carpetbaggers were in control, and in 1932 due mainly to Smith's Catholicism). This phase came to an end with the Eisenhower elections. The third and current phase began in 1952, since then it has voted Republican every time except 1964. Based on how infrequently Virginia shifts loyalties, I would say the Republicans are safe here for a few more elections.

You mean 1928, when Hoover won Virginia by 8 points. In 1932  FDR was the Democratic nominee (though Smith was interested in the nomination in 1932 as well) and trounced Hoover in Virginia, winning by 38 points and carrying all but one county/city.