Colors inverted for use off site:
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
November 30, 2023, 10:35:28 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  Colors inverted for use off site:
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Colors inverted for use off site:  (Read 3486 times)
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,727
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 04, 2012, 04:18:50 PM »
« edited: February 04, 2012, 04:31:36 PM by pbrower2a »

MY PREDICTION, 2012 Presidential election, as of 4 February 2012

Based on binary matchups only



Based on recent polls that show substantial leads for President Obama in New Hampshire and OHIO against everyone and near-ties or outright ties against Romney or Santorum elsewhere I get these results, Polls from 2011 suggest that Pennsylvania and Michigan would be much closer, but we all know what happens when the unions start organizing their campaigns.


Obama    290
Toss-up   110
Romney   138
 


Obama vs. Gingrich -- it gets really ugly for the Republicans.





Obama       357
toss-ups      58
Gingrich     123

Logged
Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,037
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 04, 2012, 04:56:32 PM »

blasphemy
Logged
Adam Griffin
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,033
Greece


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 04, 2012, 06:07:20 PM »

I don't think there's a scenario in this election where South Carolina is in play before Georgia, even with Newt Gingrich.
Logged
Хahar 🤔
Xahar
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 41,737
Bangladesh


Political Matrix
E: -6.77, S: 0.61

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 04, 2012, 07:22:16 PM »

Post reported for incorrect color usage
Logged
TheGlobalizer
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,286
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.84, S: -7.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 04, 2012, 07:56:08 PM »

LOL

TX and SC are not in play.
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,826
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 04, 2012, 08:45:11 PM »

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,727
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2012, 08:45:23 PM »

Here's the sort of "off-site" area for which I have created this map:

http://www.fourthturning.com/forum/showthread.php?5242-2012-Elections&p=419878#post419878

The above site does not support electoral maps.

Of course I know the norm for Dave Leip's Atlas. Other places have 'red' and 'blue' the opposite way from Dave Leip.  
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,727
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2012, 08:47:51 PM »


The latest poll for South Carolina showed it in play against Romney. Both states are very much in play with Gingrich as the nominee. 
Logged
Negusa Nagast 🚀
Nagas
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,826
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 04, 2012, 08:53:24 PM »


The latest poll for South Carolina showed it in play against Romney. Both states are very much in play with Gingrich as the nominee. 

If some polling firm we've never head of had Obama leading Romney by 1 point in Utah, would you consider Utah in play? Or would actually take a minute to rationally think it out and realize its an outlier and probable joke poll?
Logged
MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,395


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 04, 2012, 08:54:43 PM »

This is just not right.
Logged
Napoleon
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,894


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2012, 09:02:45 PM »

Use off site? What part of "for use in uselectionatlas.org forum posts only" was unclear? Smiley
Logged
argentarius
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 843
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2012, 09:06:18 PM »

The numbers look wrong because they make no sense. Red is left, blue is right.
Logged
AverroŽs Nix
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,289
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2012, 09:09:28 PM »

My prediction, for use off-site:
Logged
argentarius
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 843
Ireland, Republic of


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2012, 09:14:35 PM »

THIS IS NOT THE POST RANDOM MAPS THREAD. But anyway, 1880
Logged
5280
MagneticFree
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,404
United States


Political Matrix
E: 6.97, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2012, 11:00:20 PM »

AZ should be lean GOP, not toss up.  Same with TX.

Gingrich is not going to get nominated, so that map is moot.
Logged
Vote UKIP!
MasterSanders
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 990
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2012, 11:03:34 PM »

Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,727
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 08, 2012, 10:32:32 AM »
« Edited: February 08, 2012, 01:40:46 PM by pbrower2a »

MY PREDICTION, 2012 Presidential election, as of 8 February 2012

Based on binary matchups only

Obama vs. Romney



Based on recent polls that show substantial leads for President Obama in New Hampshire and OHIO against everyone and near-ties or outright ties against Romney or Santorum elsewhere I get these results, Polls from 2011 suggest that Pennsylvania and Michigan would be much closer, but we all know what happens when the unions start organizing their campaigns.


Obama    290
Toss-up   110
Romney   138
 


Obama vs. Gingrich -- it gets really ugly for the Republicans.



Obama       357
toss-ups      58
Gingrich     123


In view of results of caucuses or primaries in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri I may soon need here is a map including Rick Santorum.

Obama vs. Santorum



Obama       342
toss-ups      51
Santorum    161
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,727
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 08, 2012, 10:50:42 AM »


The latest poll for South Carolina showed it in play against Romney. Both states are very much in play with Gingrich as the nominee. 

If some polling firm we've never head of had Obama leading Romney by 1 point in Utah, would you consider Utah in play? Or would actually take a minute to rationally think it out and realize its an outlier and probable joke poll?

Not in the least -- unless there were some compelling reason to believe it.

As a rule I reject internal polls, although they might be entered  (no harm, no foul) if they corroborate what is already understood as truth.

The most likely whopper is an inversion -- typically a typo such as Gingrich leading Obama 70-28 in Vermont or Obama leading Santorum 68-28 in Oklahoma. Most of us would spot these if they are more than 10% off what we expect. I am the ultimate arbiter of what I accept or reject for my purposes, and anyone can dispute me for anything.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,727
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 08, 2012, 01:03:19 PM »

AZ should be lean GOP, not toss up.  Same with TX.

Virginia then "leaned" Democratic. Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum apparently lose Arizona. A PPP poll showed Gingrich losing Texas by about 2%. If that is an inversion, then it is still a "lean".   

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

I'm keeping Gingrich maps until I see him drop out (which includes "suspending his campaign") or if someone clinches. As you see I have added Rick Santorum even though he appeared weak before the February caucuses or primaries in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri  that he won. I did not see that coming.



Logged
Stranger in a strange land
strangeland
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,026
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 08, 2012, 01:05:27 PM »

BLASPHEMER! GATHER STONES! Angry
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.074 seconds with 12 queries.