US House Redistricting: New Hampshire

[Torie]

Bass was foolish to ask for too much. Now he will get nothing. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered.

[Torie]

Well I must say the DRA's works splendidly and instantly with no hangs in states with 2 CD's. 

NH-02 gains 10 Pub basis points, and moves from a 2.9% Dem PVI CD to a 2.8% Dem PVI CD (56.1% Obama to 56.0% Obama).

[Torie]

So Bass doesn't survive till the end of the decade, and probably not even this year most likely.

Toss up for this election coming up at the moment. Incumbents who are reasonably competent get about a 3 point tailwind, and Bass fits that bill I think, and so if the election nationally is about even, and Bass's opponent reasonably competent, that to me about equals a toss up.

Longer term, when the Pubs have a downturn, Bass will have to move into the "unusually talented" category, to wit a Gerlach or Dent from PA, to have a good chance of surviving for the decade.

[Torie]

Well, the baseline in 2010 was 3.5% Pub, so if you subtract the 2.9% Dem PVI, that leaves a margin of about 0.6%, which times two, is a 1.2% margin, which is about where Bass was at, with no incumbency advantage manifested for the Dem incumbent (maybe erased because Bass was a former incumbent perhaps, but who knows?). In any event, an incumbency tailwind will have to manifest itself of Bass in a even partisan baseline environment, or yes, he will be gone. We shall see. I don't know the situation on the ground, or how supple Bass is at the moment, and so forth.

[Torie]

he's corrupt. You can put him in the "defeated" column come november imo. And good riddance too.

What's the rap on him?

[Torie]

Well, the baseline in 2010 was 3.5% Pub, so if you subtract the 2.9% Dem PVI, that leaves a margin of about 0.6%, which times two, is a 1.2% margin, which is about where Bass was at, with no incumbency advantage manifested for the Dem incumbent (maybe erased because Bass was a former incumbent perhaps, but who knows?).

Because the Dem incumbent was running for Senate.

That is a very good reason. 

[Torie]

he's corrupt. You can put him in the "defeated" column come november imo. And good riddance too.

What's the rap on him?

http://www.crewsmostcorrupt.org/mostcorrupt/entry/charles-bass-report

Normally, I'd never use CREW as a source since they are a far left hack group, but I can't find any other source :/ But I remember in 2010 my dad told me his race tightened up due to rumours of corruption during his previous tenure in Congress.

Here is the point-counterpoint in a debate between the candidates. I suppose whether Bass's act was noisome or not depends on whether his $500,000 stock purchase in his nephew's company was a sweet heart purchase or fair market value. The purchase was obviously arranged prior to his leaving office, even if the stock transfer was a few days after he left office. While in office, the tax credit Bass spent a lot of time pushing would have benefited his nephew's company, albeit along with everyone else, so that question becomes important. And I think the burden of proof is on Bass to explain it was all arm's length. I would also like to know if the deal was prearranged while Bass was lobbying to kick in at some point, and if the price changed when the tax credit failed, and whether Bass had an option to buy or a contractual duty to buy.

I don't think Bass would like my questions if I were a reporter. Thanks for the heads up.