Official NH Primary Results Thread

[J. J.]

Fox says independents are going 30% Romney, 29% Paul

I hate to sound like a Mitt fanboy, but that's first wave...a lot of people who work 9-5 + commute just started voting and they'll be solid Romney.  Paul should get 20% overall though if turnout is really 50% independents.

And 27% Huntsman.  The independents are making up 44% of the vote.  Romney is leading self identified conservatives.

[J. J.]

Yep CNN made its projection for Romney

So did Fox.

[J. J.]

For me, Romney under 40% is a failure. Approaching 35%, like he is, is most amusing.

I was expecting it to be mid 30's.

[J. J.]

Hah look at Perry!

I'm surprised how bad Perry did and how well Paul is doing.

[J. J.]

For me, Romney under 40% is a failure. Approaching 35%, like he is, is most amusing.

I was expecting it to be mid 30's.

why, o sage?  other than the fact that nh voters are unpredictable.

There were a lot of undecided voters; I thought some of them would move to the more conservative candidates:

Romney 34%
Paul 19%
Huntsman 19%
Gingrich 15%
Santorum 10%
Roemer <2%
Perry <1%

Close to this:

Romney 35%
Paul 18%
Huntsman 17%
Santorum 15%
Gingrich 15%
Perry 8%
Other 10%

It looks like Paul got most of them.

[J. J.]

Hah look at Perry!

I'm surprised how bad Perry did and how well Paul is doing.

Maybe you should look at the polls then.

But obviously Perry was supposed to get 8%, even though over 10 consecutive polls ALL had him at 1%.

I was looking for a shift to the conservative candidates by the undecided.  I'm surprised that the benefactor was Paul.

Of the top three GOP winners tonight, none are on the extreme right.

[J. J.]

Hah look at Perry!

I'm surprised how bad Perry did and how well Paul is doing.

Maybe you should look at the polls then.

But obviously Perry was supposed to get 8%, even though over 10 consecutive polls ALL had him at 1%.

I was looking for a shift to the conservative candidates by the undecided.  I'm surprised that the benefactor was Paul.

Of the top three GOP winners tonight, none are on the extreme right.

In other words, it's basically the old NH dog-and-pony show.  The undecideds looked at the polls and, in typical NH fashion, decided they wanted the opposite of everyone else, saw that Paul was strongest in the polls and voted for him.

There are many people, myself included, who think Paul is far to the right of the other candidates, but that's not really important.

No, Paul didn't win.  Sorry, but Paul is libertarian, not a classic right winger.

If Romney wins SC, it is over.

[J. J.]

I didn't see the right falling apart so much; I though most of the undecideds would drift downward.

Huntsman out.  Perry out.  Gingrich and Santorum split the right in SC.

[J. J.]

Here is what I said two days ago:

1) Romney
2) Paul
3) Gingrich
4) Huntsman
5) Santorum

I doubt if it will happen, but:

1.  Romney
2.  Huntsman
3.  Paul
4.  Santorum
5.  Perry
6.  Gingrich

This is Huntsman's first, and probably last, stand.  Paul will never get the establishment Republicans, the religious right, or the military conservatives in a primary.  I think as long as it isn't close and Romney wins by 5 points, he wins NH.

The key has always been SC and the bottom three are still in it, Romney could win in SC.

In terms of rankings, it is darn close to perfect.

Right now, if I were Romney, I'd be worried about Gingrich.

[J. J.]

Santorum just pulled ahead of Gingrich.

[J. J.]

Gingrich back in 4th place.

[J. J.]

Wait! Rick is back ahead!

Not anymore.

[J. J.]

Wait! Rick is back ahead!

Not anymore.

Uh, yeah. He is.

He just bounced back.  

[J. J.]

Gingrich is back up.  I think he pulls fourth.

[J. J.]

Nashua just came in, heavily for Romney.  Gingrich just went up as well.

[J. J.]

Licthfield and Danville are still out, but Romney should be at 16 points ahead of Paul.

[J. J.]

Goffston and one precinct in Portsmouth are still out as well.

Gilmanton as well.

[J. J.]

Getting 39% of the vote after running for six straight years in what is basically your home state against a bunch of candidates who basically don't have any campaigns at all is pathetic. Sorry Mittbots.

Getting less than 85% against candidates including Vermin Supreme is your definition of good?

[J. J.]

Litchfield just reported, Romney at 39.4, +16.6.  Gingrich ahead by 157, so the gap closed a bit.

[J. J.]

Getting 39% of the vote after running for six straight years in what is basically your home state against a bunch of candidates who basically don't have any campaigns at all is pathetic. Sorry Mittbots.

Getting less than 85% against candidates including Vermin Supreme is your definition of good?

Better than Bush got in 2004.

And that was a close election.  Obama is still in decline; Bush holding to improving.

[J. J.]

Getting 39% of the vote after running for six straight years in what is basically your home state against a bunch of candidates who basically don't have any campaigns at all is pathetic. Sorry Mittbots.

Getting less than 85% against candidates including Vermin Supreme is your definition of good?

only one incumbent has done better than 85%. Reagan got 86% in 1984.

And that was a landslide. 

[J. J.]

Getting 39% of the vote after running for six straight years in what is basically your home state against a bunch of candidates who basically don't have any campaigns at all is pathetic. Sorry Mittbots.

Getting less than 85% against candidates including Vermin Supreme is your definition of good?

only one incumbent has done better than 85%. Reagan got 86% in 1984.

And that was a landslide. 

...

Are you seriously trying to extrapolate meaningful conclusions from a primary that about six people voted in?

Clinton got 84% in 1996, Bush got 80% in 2000. Given the very small amount of people bothering to vote in totally uncompetitive primaries, those figures are pretty much the same. As is Obama's, what, 82%? Nothing to see here.

Not a sign of strength for Obama; it is not a sign of disaster, either.  If you look at the two of those within range, Clinton and Bush II, you are looking at 49% and 51% of the vote.  Obama is a candidate that is weakening, as compared to 2008.  Weakening is not the same as losing.

Romney showed a great deal of strength here, not only winning, doing it with a fairly large margin, easily above 15 points and a with a better turnout than 2008.

[J. J.]

Santorum only down 46 votes with two precincts left to report.

What difference does it make? He isn't getting 10% and thus no delegates. I'd kinda prefer he beat out Gingrich if only to quiet the moronic talking heads who think he has any relevance left, but I seriously doubt "SANTORUM BEATS GINGRICH FOR FOURTH PLACE" is worth much of anything to him.

It makes Newt look slightly more capable of being the "conservative" alternative.  The place where Gingrich could pull an upset is SC.  It would have been better for Romney had Gingrich come in fifth; until 1/21/12, anything that hurts Gingrich helps Romney.

[J. J.]

So when is Perry going to drop out?

Next week.