New Hampshire Prediction Thread

[Lief 🗽]

Is media trying to start a Huntsman surge?

They've been trying to do that since he entered the race.

[LastVoter]

Is media trying to start a Huntsman surge?

They've been trying to do that since he entered the race.

Well this time they are semi-serious about it.

[Psychic Octopus]

I'll revise my Romney prediction down to 39-42%.

A lot of the Huntsman fans on the forum seem to be setting themselves up for a miserable hangover.

[LastVoter]

I'll revise my Romney prediction down to 39-42%.

A lot of the Huntsman fans on the forum seem to be setting themselves up for a miserable hangover.

The proper term is entertaining primary cheerleaders imo.

[Tender Branson]

Slight change in my prediction:

35% Romney
20% Huntsman
19% Paul
11% Santorum
10% Gingrich
  2% Perry
  3% Others

ca. 334.000 turnout

92% Obama
  8% Others

ca. 100.000 turnout

[Marston]

I reserve the right to amend this:

Romney - 39%
Paul - 19%
Huntsman - 17%
Santorum - 11%
Gingrich - 10%
Perry - 2%
Others - 2%

My final prediction:

Romney: 34%
Huntsman: 21%
Paul: 18%
Santorum: 12%
Gingrich: 11%
Others (Perry, Roemer, etc.): 4%

[exopolitician]

I reserve the right to amend this:

Romney - 39%
Paul - 19%
Huntsman - 17%
Santorum - 11%
Gingrich - 10%
Perry - 2%
Others - 2%

My final prediction:

Romney: 34%
Huntsman: 21%
Paul: 18%
Santorum: 12%
Gingrich: 11%
Others (Perry, Roemer, etc.): 4%

Switch Santorum and Gingrich and thats my prediction as well.

[xavier110]

Voted in Hanover (for Obama). Friend I went with voted for Huntsman. Of all the candidates, Huntsman's people had the largest presence outside the polls. He, unsurprisingly, will do well in this college town. Still 100% unsure of what to ultimately expect, although I do think the perceived Romney collapse -- winning closer to ~30% of the vote instead of the assumed ~40% -- is real.

[Simfan34]

If Huntsman will do well in the college towns, then perhaps he will draw support away from Paul.

How long has your friend supported Huntsman?

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Romney - 41%
Paul - 19%
Huntsman - 17%
Santorum - 11%
Gingrich - 9%
Perry - 1%
Roemer - 1%
Others - 1%

[Sam Spade]

Romney 39%
Paul 18%
Huntsman 18%
Santorum 11%
Gingrich 11%
Others (including Perry) 3%

Or something like this.  NH is completely unpredictable.

[Yelnoc]

Romey - 35%
Huntsman - 21%
Paul - 19%
Santorum - 13%
Gingrich - 10%
Roemer - 1%
Perry - <1%

[Insula Dei]

Romey - 35%
Huntsman - 21%
Paul - 19%
Santorum - 13%
Gingrich - 10%
Roemer - 1%
Perry - <1%

Yeah, sadly I'm now amending my prediction back to something like this.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Romney
Paul/Huntsman
Huntsman/Paul
Santorum/Gingrich
Everyone else

I'll go with

Romney: 29-45%
Paul: 16-28%
Huntsman: 11-26%
Santorum: 4-15%
Gingrich: 4-15%
The rest: Irrelevant most likely

[Simfan34]

Romney
Paul/Huntsman
Huntsman/Paul
Santorum/Gingrich
Everyone else

I'll go with

Romney: 29-45%
Paul: 16-28%
Huntsman: 11-26%
Santorum: 4-15%
Gingrich: 4-15%
The rest: Irrelevant most likely

That's not a prediction, that is "plausible results".

[Niemeyerite]

Romney
Paul/Huntsman
Huntsman/Paul
Santorum/Gingrich
Everyone else

I'll go with

Romney: 29-45%
Paul: 16-28%
Huntsman: 11-26%
Santorum: 4-15%
Gingrich: 4-15%
The rest: Irrelevant most likely

What a prediction! I'm sure it'll be right,,, Here goes my final one:

Romney 34
Huntsman 20
Paul 19
Gingrich 14
Santorum 10
Roemer 2
Perry 1

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Romney
Paul/Huntsman
Huntsman/Paul
Santorum/Gingrich
Everyone else

I'll go with

Romney: 29-45%
Paul: 16-28%
Huntsman: 11-26%
Santorum: 4-15%
Gingrich: 4-15%
The rest: Irrelevant most likely

That's not a prediction, that is "plausible results".

Its hard to tell, since independents are apparently showing up big but unlike Iowa they aren't as likely to swing Paul by 50% margins. Despite the fact that I'll probably be wrong, here goes:

Romney: 33%
Paul: 23%
Huntsman: 19%
Santorum: 10%
Gingrich: 6%

There you go. My wild guess.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Romney: 35%
Huntsman: 25%
Paul: 21%
Santorum: 10%
Gingrich: 7%
Others: 2%

[Dan the Roman]

I really think that any Romney collapse has been reversed by these stupid Bain attacks by Gingrich. As a consequence, i expect him to over-perform and the Conservatives to crash.

Romney 41%
Huntsman 19%
Paul    17%
Santorum 10%
Gingrich     8%

[Simfan34]

I really think that any Romney collapse has been reversed by these stupid Bain attacks by Gingrich. As a consequence, i expect him to over-perform and the Conservatives to crash.

Romney 41%
Huntsman 19%
Paul    17%
Santorum 10%
Gingrich     8%

How?

[Dan the Roman]

I really think that any Romney collapse has been reversed by these stupid Bain attacks by Gingrich. As a consequence, i expect him to over-perform and the Conservatives to crash.

Romney 41%
Huntsman 19%
Paul    17%
Santorum 10%
Gingrich     8%

How?

Because they are dominating coverage, and the way they are being covered is "Are they an attack on capitalism or not" not "Is Romney a shady businessman". They are doing far more damage to Perry and Gingrich, and by doing so they are giving conservatives an excuse to make their peace with Romney's nomination.

That said, I don't think they will have an effect on Paul's voters, and I dare say the first debate this weekend did a lot of damage to Romney vis-e-ve Hunstman because those social issue questions did matter.

[Shilly]

Despite the fact that I'll probably be wrong, here goes:

Romney: 35%
Paul: 26%
Huntsman: 23%
Santorum: 14%
Gingrich: 10%

There you go. My wild guess.

That adds up to 108%. Just a heads up.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Despite the fact that I'll probably be wrong, here goes:

Romney: 35%
Paul: 26%
Huntsman: 23%
Santorum: 14%
Gingrich: 10%

There you go. My wild guess.

That adds up to 108%. Just a heads up.

I cobbled it together on the spot, it's not exactly a quality prediction. I'll just change a bit

[TheGlobalizer]

vis-e-ve

Please don't ever do that again.

"vis-a-vis"

with a down accent over the 'a' that I can't do on my iPad.

[GLPman]

It's tough to determine where if Paul or Huntsman will be in second place. I went with Paul, even though I placed too much faith in his support for Iowa. We shall see.

Romney: 34%
Paul: 23%
Huntsman: 20%
Santorum: 13%
Gingrich: 8%
Others (Perry, Roemer, etc): 2%