New Hampshire Prediction Thread

[TomC]

Romney will win the second of 50 states and the national media will declare the race over.

[Oakvale]

I missed the Iowa one, but here's my rough guess.

Romney: 33%
Huntsman: 22%
Paul: 19%
Santorum: 15%
Gingrich: 7%
Perry: 1%
Others: 3%

[sentinel]

Romney 42%
Paul 20%
Huntsman 15%
Gingrich 12%
Santorum 11%
Perry 1%

[tmthforu94]

Romney - 37%
 Huntsman - 22%
 Paul - 15%
 Gingrich - 11%
 Santorum - 9%
 Roemer - 3%
 Perry - 2%
 Others - 1%

[TheGlobalizer]

Romney 40
Paul 25
Huntsman 14
Santorum 11
Gingrich 6
Roemer 2
Perry 1

EDIT: Yeah, if I'm going to put in Perry, let's put in Roemer.

Fiddling with some knobs, I'll want to see the final polls before a final predict:

Romney 35
Paul 24
Huntsman 19
Santorum 12
Gingrich 7
Roemer 2
Perry 1

[You kip if you want to...]

Mitt 32%
Huntsman 21%
Paul 19%
Santorum 12%
Gingrich 10%
Perry 1%
Roemer 1%

[Insula Dei]

Okay, new best case prediction:

Romney: 29%
Huntsman: 21%
Dr. Paul: 18%
Santorum: 13%
Gingrich: 10%
Roemer: 2%
Perry: 1%

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

OK here goes:

Romney 32%
Paul 20%
Huntsman 18%
Santorum 13%
Gingrich 11%
Roemer 2%
Perry 1%
Other 3%

Delegates:

Romney 5
Paul 2
Huntsman 2
Santorum 2
Gingrich 1

[The Mikado]

Romney 37
Paul 21
Huntsman 18
Santorum 12
Gingrich 9
Perry+Other 3

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I should note that because of New Hampshire's quirky delegate apportionment a vote for Perry literally IS a vote for Romney. Same applies to voting for Gingrich or Santorum if they fail the threshold, Romney stands to win big if both do well but fall just short. Of course because of the penalty for holding the primary early there aren't really a whole lot of delegates anyway for that to be much of a factor.

[Oakvale]

I should note that because of New Hampshire's quirky delegate apportionment a vote for Perry literally IS a vote for Romney. Same applies to voting for Gingrich or Santorum if they fail the threshold, Romney stands to win big if both do well but fall just short. Of course because of the penalty for holding the primary early there aren't really a whole lot of delegates anyway for that to be much of a factor.

Meh, delegates don't really matter. How often do nominations actually come down to delegate math? The Democratic 2008 primaries seem to be the exception to the rule.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Final prediction:

Romney 34%
Huntsman 25%
Paul 18%
Gingrich 11%
Santorum 9%
Roemer 2%
Perry 1%

[Keystone Phil]

1) Mitt Romney
2) Jon Huntsman
3) Ron Paul
4) Rick Santorum
5) Newt Gingrich
6) Rick Perry

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Romney 34%
Huntsman 22%
Paul 19%
Gingrich 12%
Santorum 11%
Roemer 1%
Perry 1%

[Napoleon]

Romney 38%
Paul 18%
Huntsman 16%
Santorum 12%
Gingrich 11%
Perry 1%

[All Along The Watchtower]

Revised:

Romney: 38%
Paul: 21%
Huntsman: 15%
Santorum: 12%
Gingrich: 12%
Others: 2%

["'Oeps!' De blunders van Rick Perry Indicted"]

Romney 43%
Paul 17%
Huntsman 16%
Gingrich 11%
Santorum 10%
Others (Perry/Roemer/etc) 3%

[Reginald]

Romney 36%
Paul 20%
Huntsman 20%
Santorum 10%
Gingrich 9%
Perry 2%
Others 3%

[cavalcade]

Romney 38%
Paul 19%
Huntsman 18%
Santorum 12%
Gingrich 10%
Roemer 1% [ahead of Perry]
Perry 1%
Other 1%

[California8429]

Mitt Romney 45%
Ron Paul 20%
Jon Huntsman 13%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Rick Santorum 9%
Rick Perry 1%

Mitt Romney 41%
Ron Paul 19%
Jon Huntsman 17%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Rick Santorum 10%
Rick Perry 1%

Mitt Romney 39%
Ron Paul 20%
Jon Huntsman 17%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Rick Santorum 10%
Rick Perry 1%

Mitt Romney 40% (though I'm keeping my Atlas prediction at >30)
Ron Paul 19%
Jon Huntsman 17%
Newt Gingrich 12%
Rick Santorum 11%
Rick Perry 1%

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Romney     33
Paul           23
Huntsman  19
Santorum: 12
Gingrich:     9
others:        4

[Franzl]

Mitt Romney: 35%
Ron Paul: 22%
Jon Huntsman: 21%
Rick Santorum: 10%
Newt Gingrich: 6%
Rick Perry: 1%

[Simfan34]

31%  Jon Huntsman
30%  Mitt Romney
15%  Ron Paul
11%  Rick Santorum
11%  Newt Gingrich
1%    Buddy Roemer
1%    Others

[California8429]

31%  Jon Huntsman
30%  Mitt Romney
15%  Ron Paul
11%  Rick Santorum
11%  Newt Gingrich
1%    Buddy Roemer
1%    Others

I hope. But that requires doubling supporting in 24 hours.

[Simfan34]

31%  Jon Huntsman
30%  Mitt Romney
15%  Ron Paul
11%  Rick Santorum
11%  Newt Gingrich
1%    Buddy Roemer
1%    Others

I hope. But that requires doubling supporting in 24 hours.

Ask Hillary Clinton. Huntsman has really picked up momentum since yesterday, and today he's been blasting that "country first" spiel on the TV, and I sincerely think we shall be surprised tomorrow. I can tell you right now that Huntsman will not get below 25%. The polls won't-can't- tell you that, but wait and see.