Canada General Discussion

[Benj]

What's everyone's thoughts on how Trudeau will poll once he is actually leader. I think he will do ok, but this Liberal majority nonsense will stop.

Presumably at first the Liberals will poll even better than they poll with him as leader now (honeymoon), but the Liberals will then steadily decline as time goes on, possibly precipitously decline if he really messes up. At an actual election, hard to see him doing better than a somewhat-close second, but more likely third, doing worse on seats than votes. Basically the same trajectory CAQ followed.

[Benj]

Perhaps he is upset at redistricting. Him and the Chicoutimi-Le Fjord MP would live in the same riding, now and the party would give a preference to the other one?

Redistricting wont be an issue for a while now, methinks. But we could see some interesting things happening. I can't recall a time where 2 sitting federal NDP MPs had to run against each other for a nomination before.

Does Canada have a residential requirement for MPs? Over here, they would probably run in their redistributed riding (unless it had been adversely affected by the redistribution) and may or not move house after. I knew someone who moved house because he insisted on living in his electorate, and I know of another MP who, at retirement, lived 40km outside his electorate because he didn't move during his career, and successive redistributions kept moving his boundary further and further away (when he started, he lived in the centre of his electorate, or thereabouts). Labor MPs in safe Labor seats generally don't want to live in their electorates, since safe Labor areas tend to be less desirable neighbourhoods.

Anyway, I think it should be up to the voters. I think a local will best represent local interests, but it's like any other policy position - the voters can decide what matters to them and make up their own mind about who should represent them in Parliament.

Canada does not have a residency requirement. As an example, Jack Layton and Olivia Chow lived together (in Trinity-Spadina, I believe) and represented separate ridings.

[Benj]

NDP in 2nd place.... in PEI!!! http://cra.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/03/13-1-PE-Political-Press-Release1.pdf

...dafuq?

Rogue poll or perhaps something big is starting on the island...

If you believe their polling, the NDP has been steadily gaining over the past year (their results go 11-18-18-22-26, Feb-May-Aug-Nov-Feb, for the NDP). 26% (and 16% for the PCs) may be an outlier, but they definitely seem to have gained considerable ground.

The PCs are between leaders at the moment, though. Who knows what will happen when they get a new leader.

[Benj]

Remember this when it happens.

I predict a mass exodus of NDP MPs from Quebec to the Liberals under Trudeau, knowing they will not be able to win reelection as NDP candidates in Quebec.

Mark my words.

Liberals are still dead in rural Francophone Quebec and Trudeau isn't a good candidate for those nationalist areas.

It's Winfield. He probably thinks Mitt Romney would sweep Quebec.