Canada General Discussion

[Smid]

The Liberals being forced to prop up a minority government as the third party would be disaster for them. They'd either alienate progressive voters or non-progressive voters, either way, very difficult for them. On the other hand, a Liberal resurgence, displacing the NDP as the dominant non-Tory party, is the easiest way for the Conservatives to slip across the line for a second majority government.

[Smid]

How did you calculate that?

I calculated the winner of each constituency in 101 cases (adding 0% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 100% to the NDP, then adding 1% of the Liberal vote to the Tories and 99% to the NDP, then 2%, then 3%, etc.) and summed the results and put them in a table, which I graphed. With the aid of a spreadsheet, it only took two hours. I'm very pleased with how it turned out.

If anyone cares, I can send the spreadsheet.

Beautiful work!

[Smid]

He is a fantastic strategist.

I hear that he's a brilliant chess player and approaches political strategy with a similar "ten moves ahead" long-term strategic view.

[Smid]

She has such a cool campaign bust! I mean, bus...

[Smid]

She's not stupid, and forcing an election would be stupid from the NDP's POV. She can't prop him up forever though, as the fates of Iggy and David Lewis would remind her.

She knows it. Not that an election would be bad for the NDP - it would be bad for everyone. It's just been six months. But if she can get some of her proposals in, get press, and watch the NDP rise in the polls, why not milk it?

Prop the government up for eighteen months or two years so she can say "I've tried to work with them but the Premier is being stubborn and refusing to compromise for the benefit of the workers of Ontario who are doing it tough in this economic climate" as a justification when the time comes.

[Smid]

A Northern Ontario New Democrat. I'm pissed right now. Stupid.

So his reasoning is that 'in four years, if the NDP forms government and if Mulcair is Prime Minister, he plans on reintroducing the long gun registry and this is likely to be a whipped vote? Oh, and by the way, it just so happens that, and this is just a coincidence, I was passed over for a shadow ministry. My constituents are therefore not valued by Mulcair...' That's what I take from his statement on his website, anyway:

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[Smid]

Anybody care to give me a quick rundown of politics in Canada? Like what are the major parties, what the political geography is like (where are the given parties strong and vice versa) and recent changes. All I know is that the Conservatives are in power an they do really well in Alberta. I'd really like to know more. 

There are five parties with MPs elected federally - the Conservatives (with a majority), the left-wing NDP (Official Opposition), the slightly-to-the-left-of-centre Liberals (were Opposition until last year, when they lost most of their seats, including their leader's), the Bloc Quebecois (platform is independence for Quebec), and the Greens hold a seat in BC.

With the exception of the NDP, provincial parties aren't affiliated with their federal counterparts, I believe, and while the NDP did best in Quebec federally, there is no provincial NDP in that province. This will lead you to correctly infer that provincial and national elections aren't held concurrently.

There are numerous maps in the International Elections gallery, and discussions about the politics in the International Elections board, just a few boards up.

Earl has a great website, which you should be able to find through google, although there are links in the Alberta election thread, too, he calls it Canadian Election Atlas, and hosts it at blogspot. The506, another poster on here, has a really good webpage, too, but I can't remember the link.

So the maps make sense, Conservatives (Tories) are blue, the NDP (Dippers) are orange, the Liberals (Grits) are red, the Bloc are light blue/aqua and the Greens are, well, green (except in provincial politics, where it is the various conservative parties - Wildrose, the Saskatchewan Party or the Yukon Party).

Oh, and in case you hadn't seen, the NDP stands for New Democrats.

[Smid]

BC is winnable for Dippers. Not so much SK, MB so long as Mulcair keeps parroting McGuinty with talk of "Dutch disease" plus C&T.

I wonder how the NDP will be doing in the polls in BC once the unpopular Liberal government is voted out of office, and an NDP government installed?

[Smid]

Shouldn't be overly hard to get the 9 vote margin in Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Riviére-du-Loup overturned based on this ruling.

Hopefully the five people who were found to have voted twice cop a hefty fine.

[Smid]

Shouldn't be overly hard to get the 9 vote margin in Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Riviére-du-Loup overturned based on this ruling.

Hopefully the five people who were found to have voted twice cop a hefty fine.

If I were the CPC strategist I wouldn't risk it. Given the current NDP honeymoon and anti-Harper sentiment in Quebec, a by-election could well result in a solid NDP victory and prompt accusations of Conservatives wasting money for being sore losers.

I agree with you 100%. The flirtation between Harper and Quebec ended during the 2008 campaign and won't return unless Mulcair stumbles horribly on a Quebec-related issue.

I don't disagree. I was trying to make the same point Holmes made of "where does it all end" by drawing attention to other narrow margins. I don't like this ruling at all. Mistakes were made by Elections Canada but it's the Tory MP who is penalised despite there being no evidence at all (nor, from what I read in the article, even any accusation) of wrongdoing on his part. If anything, it encourages voter fraud - a party could have unenrolled voters turn out in marginal ridings, and hope no other parties realise if they win, but then bring it up and have the result overturned if they lose. Anyway, I just think it's wrong that the person penalised is someone against whom there is no evidence of vote fraud. Hopefully there is an appeal and hopefully the Supreme Court overturns the judgement.

[Smid]

EKOS pegs the Tories slightly behind the Dippers.

http://www.ipolitics.ca/2012/07/01/harpers-conservatives-slide-behind-ndp-in-national-poll/

Plugged the numbers into my spreadsheet to estimate some seat counts, etc. Atlantic Canada seems a bit off - 7.7% of voters didn't register a response against any of the four parties listed, so that may have scrambled the numbers there a little. Obviously just estimates and so on, but seems a bit more reasonable than the poll released last week.

Overall
Tories      116 ( -48 )
Grits        49   ( +15 )
Dippers   124 ( +22 )
Bloc         15   ( +11 )
Greens    1     ( - )

Atlantic Canada
Tories      13 ( -1 )
Grits         4 ( -8 )
Dippers    15 ( +9 )
Greens     0

Quebec
Tories       4 ( -1 )
Grits         10 ( +3 )
Dippers    46 ( -13 )
Bloc          15 ( +11 )

Ontario
Tories       47 ( -26 )
Grits         29 ( +18 )
Dippers    30 ( +8 )

Central Prairies
Tories      15 ( -9 )
Grits         2 ( - )
Dippers    11 ( +9 )

Alberta
Tories      27 ( - )
Dippers    1 ( - )

British Columbia
Tories      10 ( -11 )
Grits         4 ( +2 )
Dippers    21 ( +9 )
Greens     1 ( - )

[Smid]

The Canadian Filibuster?

[Smid]

Justin Trudeau endorses Thomas Mulcair ahead of all non-Quebec Liberal candidates for leadership.

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http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/11/22/justin-trudeau-anti-alberta-tv-interview-puts-dent-in-liberal-leadership-ambitions/

[Smid]

Can anybody give me the link to where Grenier says he supports the BQ? I've always been curious what way he leans politically given that he tries almost absurdly hard to be uber-neutral in his 308 posts.

The only thing he tries absurdly hard at is being terrible at everything.

OK, maybe I'm being a little too harsh on him eh?

You're so nice about everything else that I rather enjoy your OTT fuming at him.

[Smid]

Chris Alexander certainly deserves to be in cabinet.

James Rajotte also deserves a spot there, the only reason he doesn't have a seat at the cabinet table already is because of the number of other Albertans. I really hope he gets elevated, he deserves the role, he was fantastic as Industry Critic prior to the 2006 election.

[Smid]

That Place projects the AR poll as 180 Tories, 112 NDP, 38 Grits, 3 BQ because of a Western sweep. The JT part of the poll is only called a "large majority."

The JT part of the poll didn't give regional breakdowns, so difficult to accurately model. My model gave laughable results, as a result.

[Smid]

Rajotte would be spectacular in that role. He was an exceptional Industry Critic prior to 2006, and I am keen to see him in Cabinet. One of my favourite MPs.

[Smid]

Perhaps he is upset at redistricting. Him and the Chicoutimi-Le Fjord MP would live in the same riding, now and the party would give a preference to the other one?

Redistricting wont be an issue for a while now, methinks. But we could see some interesting things happening. I can't recall a time where 2 sitting federal NDP MPs had to run against each other for a nomination before.

Does Canada have a residential requirement for MPs? Over here, they would probably run in their redistributed riding (unless it had been adversely affected by the redistribution) and may or not move house after. I knew someone who moved house because he insisted on living in his electorate, and I know of another MP who, at retirement, lived 40km outside his electorate because he didn't move during his career, and successive redistributions kept moving his boundary further and further away (when he started, he lived in the centre of his electorate, or thereabouts). Labor MPs in safe Labor seats generally don't want to live in their electorates, since safe Labor areas tend to be less desirable neighbourhoods.

Anyway, I think it should be up to the voters. I think a local will best represent local interests, but it's like any other policy position - the voters can decide what matters to them and make up their own mind about who should represent them in Parliament.

[Smid]

I think there should be residency requirements, or at the very least voters should know where candidates live (not the exact address, but which district at least) on the ballot. If we are going to have a FPTP system or even an AV system, then geography matters more, and why both drawing boundaries if candidates are just going to get parachuted in?

Smid's point about ALP MPs not living in their districts kind of angers me...

I'm sorry about my comment  I didn't mean to cause offence. I agree it is an important issue in a geographic based electorate. I perhaps shouldn't have mentioned the partisan aspect, but it is far more prevalent on the other side of politics.

[Smid]

So unprecedented leadership drama/bitching in addition to the PEI PCs being a useless Moderate Hero party...

You'd think they'd have learnt from the federal Liberal experience that this approach doesn't work...

[Smid]

Ed Komarkicki (C-SK) will retire at the end of this Parliament.

http://www.estevanmercury.ca/article/20130306/ESTMERCURY0101/130309970/-1/estmercury/souris-moose-mountain-mp-komarnicki-will-not-seek-re-election-in-2015

Redistribution reduces Conservative seats in Saskatchewan, his retirement potentially allows someone losing a seat to shuffle over?

[Smid]

Is a Security Council seat worth worrying about?

No, but the fact than Harper is destroying our past excellent international reputation is very worrying.

Cite?

I refer you to the UN delegations from North Korea and Iran.

[Smid]

It's pretty disgusting the personal grubby tactics the left are using against Ford. This is the prime example - if it existed, then fair enough, but there was no evidence, but if you throw enough mud, some of it is going to stick. Can't beat him on policy, can't beat him legitimately politically, have to resort to these disgusting tactics. Racing down the track of US-style negative campaigns.

[Smid]

Dexter's government has been quite "Red Tory"-like, which I think any first term NDP government should govern like. (fix previous govt's problems).

So we have you on record now, stating that the only way to fix government problems is to govern like a Tory? [/trolling]

[Smid]

Including abolition is a way of carrying the NDP along. I seem to remember an article about the NDP not being able to abolish the Senate, if forming government at a future election, and needing to have a slight policy shift for a workable approach. If an inquiry were to say that abolition were impractical, it could give them the opportunity to change position but still save face.