Canada General Discussion

[Leftbehind]

UM has almost finished imploding, with a few more councillors becoming independent.

Who?

[RogueBeaver]

Union Montreal, the now-dissolved party of former Montreal mayor Gerald Tremblay.

In federal news, Rae has been confirmed as the chief negotiator for Lake of Fire First Nations.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/thunder-bay/story/2013/05/10/tby-bob-rae-first-nations-ring-of-fire.html

[RogueBeaver]

100% agreed with Ivison, as usual.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2013/05/12/pressure-mounts-to-reform-opaque-financial-system/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

[Hatman 🍁]

Those numbers aren't that good for anyone, really.

Not bad for QS, actually... I think.

[RogueBeaver]

Peter Worthington has died. RIP. Apparently he wrote his own obituary, which will appear in the Sun tomorrow.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2013/05/13/peter-worthington-1927-2013.html

[DC Al Fine]

Apologies if this was discussed a ways back. I found this chart from the Ipsos-Reid exit poll in 2011



Pretty standard stuff.

One idea occurs to me. The high Catholic NDP vote is undoubtedly influenced by the Orange Crush in Quebec. What do you guys think the Catholic vote would look like in English Canada?

[RogueBeaver]

Tory plurality, at least amongst the practicing.

[Hatman 🍁]

Apologies if this was discussed a ways back. I found this chart from the Ipsos-Reid exit poll in 2011



Pretty standard stuff.

One idea occurs to me. The high Catholic NDP vote is undoubtedly influenced by the Orange Crush in Quebec. What do you guys think the Catholic vote would look like in English Canada?

Wish they had break down by visible minority. I know we have some data on that, but I wish we'd publish it.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne said she hopes there isn't an election, Horwath will make her final budget demand tomorrow and then they'll start negotiating. Labour wants Horwath to pocket her gains, ditto Star and Globe. I still don't see a scenario where the NDP topples Wynne. Barring an election, Tories should ease off the accelerator a bit and send Hudak on the BBQ circuit. Has to get those personal negatives down if he wants better poll # and a clean shot next year or in 2015.

http://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2013/05/13/andrea_horwath_finding_out_that_propping_up_a_government_is_hard_to_do_cohn.html

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath's final demands: taking tolls and their taxes out of the budget or cancelling corporate tax cuts, wait till there's a comprehensive transit funding plan. Rules out a coalition with the Grits, not that it was ever on the table.

[RogueBeaver]

Worthington's self-obituary.

http://www.torontosun.com/2013/05/14/peter-worthington-in-his-own-words

[Hash]

The Purgatory war on science continues: http://www.slate.com/blogs/bad_astronomy/2013/05/13/canada_and_science_nrc_will_now_only_do_science_that_promotes_economic_gain.html?fb_ref=sm_fb_share_blogpost

Science is only good if you can make money off of it.

[RogueBeaver]

Brazeau is also fighting the expense audit. So these will have to be settled in court. Ideally there would be legislation setting a hard residency requirement of x days in the province you represent, more realistically we might get an end to the residency honour system. Has to be something much stricter.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2013/05/14/senator_patrick_brazeau_to_fight_order_to_repay_48744_in_expenses.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[RogueBeaver]

Apparently the Senate can seize the funds and will do so if not repaid when the report is adopted next week. To quote Mr. Burns, "Ex-ce-llent!"

[RogueBeaver]

Bob Fife will have new Senate revelations at 11, reaching to the "highest levels of government." Wonder what they'll be.

[RogueBeaver]

Nigel Wright brokered a deal while the audit was underway that he would help Duffy repay the money in exchange for going easy on him and reimbursing taxpayers. Jeebus.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/duffy-made-secret-deal-with-harper-s-chief-of-staff-during-audit-1.1282015

[RogueBeaver]

2 new Ontario polls: I'll go with the pollster we've heard of. Abacus pegs 34-34-25.

[RogueBeaver]

Coderre leads the mayor's race with 34% to 22% for Bergeron and 19% for Harel. Huge # of undecideds, especially among non-Francos.

http://www.lapresse.ca/fichiers/4650915/municipale.pdf

[Hatman 🍁]

Darn. Surprised Coderre is doing better among Francos than Anglos. I guess Undecideds would break to Coderre.

2 new Ontario polls: I'll go with the pollster we've heard of. Abacus pegs 34-34-25.

So, Liberal majority then?

[RogueBeaver]

Also a huge undecided # in that category. As for Ontario, Forum pegged something similar a couple of weeks ago but translated it into a Liberal majority thanks to gains from the NDP. But on the flipside, why would Wynne make such an effort to keep Horwath onside if she thought a majority was possible? Sometimes leaders' behaviour can tell us something too, remember Quebec when Charest/Marois kept lurching between base and swing appeals?

[RogueBeaver]

Wright paid Duffy's expenses, 90k worth, from his personal account. Fife is a scoop machine.

[RogueBeaver]

PM didn't know about the Duffy gift.

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath's post-meeting presser seems rather inconclusive, said it's now in Wynne's hands.

[RogueBeaver]

Fife says Duffy told CTV that he repaid that money with an RBC loan, Wright wasn't involved, contradicting the PMO. They barely knew each other. Wright only informed Ethics Commish tonight about the purported loan. Since LeBreton said the money was repaid months ago... eesh.

[Make Politics Boring Again]

So when does Peter Penashue get appointed to the Senate?