Canada General Discussion

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the party standing on Montreal City Council now?

[RogueBeaver]

Senate audits have been released. Brazeau and Harb have to pay up, Harb will fight it in court and has *resigned* (i.e. expelled) from the Liberal caucus. The expulsion procedures need to be made easier: 2/3 vote, period.

Patriquin on the gangsterism charges. One of those statutes carries a maximum sentence of life imprisonment, BTW.

http://www2.macleans.ca/2013/05/09/gilles-vaillancourt-breaking-down-the-gangsterism-charges/

[RogueBeaver]

Brazeau has to pay $48k, Harb $51k. LeBreton says all legal steps will be taken to reclaim the money. Good.

[RogueBeaver]

What are the party standing on Montreal City Council now?

UM will be formally dissolved, all its councillors are now independents. Curious to see how many of them, if any, join Equipe Coderre.

Meanwhile in Nova Scotia, apparently a Dipper minister assaulted a Liberal MLA.

[Hatman 🍁]

What are the party standing on Montreal City Council now?

UM will be formally dissolved, all its councillors are now independents. Curious to see how many of them, if any, join Equipe Coderre.

And the standings are then...?

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Oh dear. I suppose we can kiss our chances of another majority goodbye.

[RogueBeaver]

Shuffle will happen by the end of June. Hopefully Ivison's correct as usual on the who and where, we need a reset.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2013/05/09/f-vp-hall-harper-midterm.html

The NS minister in question has resigned from Cabinet.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/nova-scotia/story/2013/05/10/ns-percy-paris-resign-scuffle.html

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath has more budget demands, today for expanded ombudsman coverage. Will finish by next week and then start negotiating with Wynne.

[RogueBeaver]

The Dipper minister has been charged with assault and uttering threats. Will appear in provincial court on June 18.

http://thechronicleherald.ca/novascotia/1128641-ex-ns-cabinet-minister-to-appear-in-court-in-june-on-assault-charge

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

A lot of the black community in NS is spread out in little villages settled when the Tories fled to Canada after the American Revolution. Preston happens to be the largest of these black communities, but if the riding was just the Preston area, it's population would be outrageously small so the boundary commission tacked on some white exurbs to boost the population. The "black" riding is more like 1/2 black rural village and 1/2 white exurb. Hence the white MLA.

I suspect any by-election will be an NDP-Liberal one. While the Tories have nominated a solid, well-known candidate, they simply haven't recovered enough in the polls to make it a 3 way race.

[RogueBeaver]

More shuffle news. Possible retirees include Nicholson, Ablonczy, Ashfield, Ritz. I'd definitely trust Ivison more than Ditchburn since he's way more connected. And for some reason Oliver's running again.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/coming-cabinet-shuffle-will-test-retirement-plans-for-cabinet-ministers-206948581.html

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

A lot of the black community in NS is spread out in little villages settled when the Tories fled to Canada after the American Revolution. Preston happens to be the largest of these black communities, but if the riding was just the Preston area, it's population would be outrageously small so the boundary commission tacked on some white exurbs to boost the population. The "black" riding is more like 1/2 black rural village and 1/2 white exurb. Hence the white MLA.

I suspect any by-election will be an NDP-Liberal one. While the Tories have nominated a solid, well-known candidate, they simply haven't recovered enough in the polls to make it a 3 way race.

Yeah, I see that it is historically actually a Liberal-PC riding.

I guess with the Blacks not concentrated enough, that's the reason Dexter got riding of t he Black riding in the latest redistribution?

[DC Al Fine]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

A lot of the black community in NS is spread out in little villages settled when the Tories fled to Canada after the American Revolution. Preston happens to be the largest of these black communities, but if the riding was just the Preston area, it's population would be outrageously small so the boundary commission tacked on some white exurbs to boost the population. The "black" riding is more like 1/2 black rural village and 1/2 white exurb. Hence the white MLA.

I suspect any by-election will be an NDP-Liberal one. While the Tories have nominated a solid, well-known candidate, they simply haven't recovered enough in the polls to make it a 3 way race.

Yeah, I see that it is historically actually a Liberal-PC riding.

I guess with the Blacks not concentrated enough, that's the reason Dexter got riding of t he Black riding in the latest redistribution?

Yes and no. He also eliminated the 3 Acadian ridings (Argyle, Clare & Richmond). Depending on who you believe it was either because the ridings were too small and didn't represent their intended communities well or because none of those ridings had NDP MLA's

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

A lot of the black community in NS is spread out in little villages settled when the Tories fled to Canada after the American Revolution. Preston happens to be the largest of these black communities, but if the riding was just the Preston area, it's population would be outrageously small so the boundary commission tacked on some white exurbs to boost the population. The "black" riding is more like 1/2 black rural village and 1/2 white exurb. Hence the white MLA.

I suspect any by-election will be an NDP-Liberal one. While the Tories have nominated a solid, well-known candidate, they simply haven't recovered enough in the polls to make it a 3 way race.

Yeah, I see that it is historically actually a Liberal-PC riding.

I guess with the Blacks not concentrated enough, that's the reason Dexter got riding of t he Black riding in the latest redistribution?

Yes and no. He also eliminated the 3 Acadian ridings (Argyle, Clare & Richmond). Depending on who you believe it was either because the ridings were too small and didn't represent their intended communities well or because none of those ridings had NDP MLA's

Yeah... BTW, do Blacks in NS vote Liberal or NDP?

[MaxQue]

Interesting. He is the only Black MLA in the legislature. Interestingly, the Black riding in NS is represented by a white guy.

I wonder if the Liberal MLA said something racist?

Could we be seeing a by-election? Paris won by a lot last time, but I see his riding is historically Tory. Could be a good 3-way fight if there is one.

A lot of the black community in NS is spread out in little villages settled when the Tories fled to Canada after the American Revolution. Preston happens to be the largest of these black communities, but if the riding was just the Preston area, it's population would be outrageously small so the boundary commission tacked on some white exurbs to boost the population. The "black" riding is more like 1/2 black rural village and 1/2 white exurb. Hence the white MLA.

I suspect any by-election will be an NDP-Liberal one. While the Tories have nominated a solid, well-known candidate, they simply haven't recovered enough in the polls to make it a 3 way race.

Yeah, I see that it is historically actually a Liberal-PC riding.

I guess with the Blacks not concentrated enough, that's the reason Dexter got riding of t he Black riding in the latest redistribution?

Yes and no. He also eliminated the 3 Acadian ridings (Argyle, Clare & Richmond). Depending on who you believe it was either because the ridings were too small and didn't represent their intended communities well or because none of those ridings had NDP MLA's

It's not like if there was Acadians left out of two or three villages. Those ridings were Anglophone and not Acadian.

Earl: Blacks vote Liberals

[Hatman 🍁]

I know Preston has a Liberal MLA, but Paris is NDP and Black, and the only Black MP in Nova Scotia history (Gordon Earle) was also Black.  Did Preston (the community) go Liberal? I think it's in Peter Stoffer's federal riding, so they definitely vote NDP federally.

[RogueBeaver]

RCMP is opening a criminal investigation into the Senate expenses scandal, they've been monitoring it for months. Very welcome news. If charges are laid, hopefully the senators in question get suspended a la Brazeau.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/rcmp-poised-to-open-criminal-investigation-into-senators-expenses-1.1276945

Horwath shifts her brand's emphasis.

http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/horwaths-change-in-tone-presents-a-confusing-image/article11876625/?service=mobile

[RogueBeaver]

Doug Finley has passed away after a long battle with cancer at 66. RIP Senator.


In Quebec news, PLQ takes a 35-27 lead but not a majority because they're only at 25% with Francophones.

http://www.journaldemontreal.com/2013/05/10/la-chute-se-poursuit-pour-le-pq

[Marokai Backbeat]

The PLQ is a horror movie villain that never dies.

[RogueBeaver]

Part of this might be a Couillard honeymoon, rest is the government's deeply underwater approvals. PQ is base bleeding to QS/ON, PLQ gaining from a deflating CAQ.

[DC Al Fine]

Why would they use blue for the Liberals?

[MaxQue]

Even leading by 8, those subsamples aren't good for Liberals. They are just raking votes in seats they already hold. Anyways, government is stable, I don't see CAQ going for an election with those polls.

Does Doug Finlay was of any relation with Diane Finlay, MP for Haldimand-Norfolk?

[Marokai Backbeat]

Those numbers aren't that good for anyone, really.

[DC Al Fine]

I know Preston has a Liberal MLA, but Paris is NDP and Black, and the only Black MP in Nova Scotia history (Gordon Earle) was also Black.  Did Preston (the community) go Liberal? I think it's in Peter Stoffer's federal riding, so they definitely vote NDP federally.

It was a split between Tory and Liberal actually*. Here are the poll by poll results http://electionsnovascotia.ca/results/09results/dist43.pdf

"Nelson Whynder Elementary" and "East Preston Recreation Centre" are in Preston. There are 6 polls and the Tories and Liberals each won 3. Federally, Preston voted about 2/3 NDP in 2011.


*Probably because we ran a fairly prominent member of the black community.

[RogueBeaver]

Even leading by 8, those subsamples aren't good for Liberals. They are just raking votes in seats they already hold. Anyways, government is stable, I don't see CAQ going for an election with those polls.

Does Doug Finlay was of any relation with Diane Finlay, MP for Haldimand-Norfolk?

Her husband.