Canada General Discussion

[Peter the Lefty]

Quick question for Ontarians: what's going on with the wild poll variations? Cause some polls have a Lib-PC dead heat and others a PC-NDP dead heat with the Liberals a distant third.

Isn't Nanos the only pollster to show the Liberals polling decently? The latest Forum shows the PCs at 37, the NDP at 35 and the Liberals at 20. Incidentally, if that result ever came to be, I'd probably commit suicide. Hudak is a disgusting scumbag who would be a total and utter disaster for the province (possibly worse than Mike Harris) and who would totally destroy whatever good is left in Ontario. Horwath is a horrible person who would be a crappy Premier; if the ONDP was led by some Mulcair-type, I really wouldn't care and would probably be voting NDP, but Horwath is so horrible. Ugh.

What's so awful about Horwath?  Even for a Liberal voter?

[Hatman 🍁]

Quick question for Ontarians: what's going on with the wild poll variations? Cause some polls have a Lib-PC dead heat and others a PC-NDP dead heat with the Liberals a distant third.

Isn't Nanos the only pollster to show the Liberals polling decently? The latest Forum shows the PCs at 37, the NDP at 35 and the Liberals at 20. Incidentally, if that result ever came to be, I'd probably commit suicide. Hudak is a disgusting scumbag who would be a total and utter disaster for the province (possibly worse than Mike Harris) and who would totally destroy whatever good is left in Ontario. Horwath is a horrible person who would be a crappy Premier; if the ONDP was led by some Mulcair-type, I really wouldn't care and would probably be voting NDP, but Horwath is so horrible. Ugh.

What's so awful about Horwath?  Even for a Liberal voter?

Dont mind him, he can be a Liberal hack sometimes.

Horwath is extremely popular in Ontario, certainly compared to her rivals. It's one of the reasons why we are now ahead in the polls in the province.

[RogueBeaver]

Can't speak for Hash, I'll just say she's a decent person whom I fundamentally disagree with politically.

Hatman: Last I heard 'twas a dead Blue-Orange heat.

[Holmes]

I think the only reason that the Liberals did so "good" in the previous election was Hudak, and because McGuinty is no novice, and was able to siphon quite a bit of NDP-leaning voters to give him his minority. But he's even more tainted now, and on his way out, so Ontario is aligning itself with the rest of the country and becoming orange versus blue (although, since Dexter sucks so much, Nova Scotia is orange versus red at the moment). Just interesting that it took this long. The final holdouts seem to be New Brunswick and PEI.

[MaxQue]

I think the only reason that the Liberals did so "good" in the previous election was Hudak, and because McGuinty is no novice, and was able to siphon quite a bit of NDP-leaning voters to give him his minority. But he's even more tainted now, and on his way out, so Ontario is aligning itself with the rest of the country and becoming orange versus blue (although, since Dexter sucks so much, Nova Scotia is orange versus red at the moment). Just interesting that it took this long. The final holdouts seem to be New Brunswick and PEI.

With the very notable exception of Quebec.

[RogueBeaver]

Supremes rule on Etobicoke Centre next week.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/10/19/optiz-wreznewskyj-scoc-thurs-oct25.html

[Hatman 🍁]

RIP Lincoln Alexander

[DC Al Fine]

Supremes rule on Etobicoke Centre next week.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/story/2012/10/19/optiz-wreznewskyj-scoc-thurs-oct25.html

That would be a brutal by-election for the Tories.

[RogueBeaver]

They had doubts about both evidence and witness credibility in the July hearing, so we'll see how that turns out. I'd be surprised if we retained it in 2015.

Speaking of by-elections, the troika of Calgary Centre, Durham and Victoria have been called for Nov. 26.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/inside-politics-blog/2012/10/by-election-watch-calgary-centre-durham-and-victoria-voters-head-to-polls-on-nov-26.html

[RogueBeaver]

First Charbonneau domino topples: Gilles Vaillancourt, who's "temporarily" stepping aside. Depends how quickly police find the cash.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/anti-corruption-raid-in-quebec-banks-reports-say-laval-mayor-targeted-175675701.html

[MaxQue]

At least, news are refraining of using the word "surprising" in all that story, given the name of the current witness.

[RogueBeaver]

Supremes: Ted Opitz remains the MP for Etobicoke Centre.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/10/25/pol-supreme-court-etobicoke-centre-ruling.html

[Holmes]

Forum Ontario numbers with different Liberals leaders.

Dwight Duncan
PC 40% / NDP 39% / LIB 16% / GRN 4%

Deb Matthews
PC 38% / NDP 36% / LIB 20% / GRN 5%

Kathleen Wynne
PC 35% / NDP 36% / LIB 22% / GRN 6%

George Smitherman
PC 36% / NDP 35% / LIB 23% / GRN 5%

Michael Bryant
PC 39% / NDP 37% / LIB 18% / GRN 5%

Brad Duguid
PC 36% / NDP 38% / LIB 20% / GRN 5%

The moral is, the Liberals need a leader from Toronto... in order to get above 20% support. Someone got a fork?

[RogueBeaver]

Didn't poll Pupatello, though I doubt she'd poll much better.

[RogueBeaver]

Charbonneau update: Tremblay was allegedly in the room when illegal financing was discussed. If true, manure, meet fan.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/testimony-in-quebec-corruption-probe-directly-implicates-montreal-mayor/article4754334/

In less disturbing municipal news, Chow would whup Ford in a 2-way matchup.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/10/30/matt-gurney-fords-dumb-mistakes-make-mayor-olivia-chow-more-likely/

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum Ontario numbers with different Liberals leaders.

Dwight Duncan
PC 40% / NDP 39% / LIB 16% / GRN 4%

Deb Matthews
PC 38% / NDP 36% / LIB 20% / GRN 5%

Kathleen Wynne
PC 35% / NDP 36% / LIB 22% / GRN 6%

George Smitherman
PC 36% / NDP 35% / LIB 23% / GRN 5%

Michael Bryant
PC 39% / NDP 37% / LIB 18% / GRN 5%

Brad Duguid
PC 36% / NDP 38% / LIB 20% / GRN 5%

The moral is, the Liberals need a leader from Toronto... in order to get above 20% support. Someone got a fork?

Interesting. I know we just did a poll for a non-profit client that showed the NDP ahead. It was conducted just after McGuinty resigned.

Charbonneau update: Tremblay was allegedly in the room when illegal financing was discussed. If true, manure, meet fan.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/testimony-in-quebec-corruption-probe-directly-implicates-montreal-mayor/article4754334/

In less disturbing municipal news, Chow would whup Ford in a 2-way matchup.

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2012/10/30/matt-gurney-fords-dumb-mistakes-make-mayor-olivia-chow-more-likely/

Woot. We dont want to lose her federally, though

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Ah, Montreal.

[Holmes]

40% approval for Ford!?!!?!?!???! Do I live in the same city as these people??

42% think he's been a good influence! Good grief!! Even my family in Northern Ontario talk about the embarrassing stuff he's done and they can't even name another Toronto mayor.

[Orion0]

40% approval for Ford!?!!?!?!???! Do I live in the same city as these people??

42% think he's been a good influence! Good grief!! Even my family in Northern Ontario talk about the embarrassing stuff he's done and they can't even name another Toronto mayor.

I think it speaks to the fact that while ford has definite shortcomings with regards to being media friendly (friendly in general perhaps?) his political agenda has serious support. The canceling of the personal vehicle tax, coupled with the surplus from 2011 (among other issues) are probably still holding his support at such levels.

On another front, Lethbridge college has a poll of Alberta federal voting intentions over here: http://www.threehundredeight.com/2012/10/detailed-breakdown-of-alberta-federal.html and while it's nothing shocking (cons at 50+% support? You don't say!) It did offer a couple interesting points. What would it take to shift Alberta's politics in a major way? And would the libs and NDP benefit from conceding contests to the other resulting in a more even 2-party like race?

I tend to think that the latter is a great idea for the non-cons. pick a riding or 2 and dont run a candidate, urging support for the other. When I lived in Edmonton it seemed that the ridings that could be picked up (Ed centre, east and strathcona) were contested so heavily by big recognizable names for both the NDP and libs, it resulted in a 3 way split. Take Edmonton centre, add the lib and NDP % from 2011 together (22.4 and 25.4) and its almost equal to con support at 48%. Any traction there or are agreements like that too controversial to work?

[Hatman 🍁]

While it would be great for the average voter, I would vote for a fringe party before voting Liberal.

[RogueBeaver]

NPD-QC or no NPD-QC, 'tis the question.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/ndp-divided-on-setting-up-quebec-party-with-priority-on-taking-down-harper-177096131.html

LOL McGuinty.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/story/2012/11/02/pol-mcguinty-exit-interview-the-house.html

[DC Al Fine]

I saw a poll that had the Liberals with JT as leader polling at 39%. Perhaps the NDP should be focusing on not going back to 3rd place.

[RogueBeaver]

BOOM: Vaillancourt goes down, will resign. Is Tremblay next?

http://fr.canoe.ca/infos/quebeccanada/archives/2012/11/20121104-175159.html

[MaxQue]

I saw a poll that had the Liberals with JT as leader polling at 39%. Perhaps the NDP should be focusing on not going back to 3rd place.

Not needed. Justin Trudeau is an awful politician, it will go down as soon Canadians hear him.

[Holmes]

McGuinty is such a whiny, lying, self-entitled asshole who thinks everything should just be handed to him on a silver platter. Maybe he'll never go down electorally, but hopefully the gas plant scandal is brought to everyone's attention during his retirement.